1. #1
    Fullkelly
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    Crushing The No Vig Closing Line, But Still Losing Badly

    I attack opening numbers on a few mid-size markets. I have beat the no vig pinny/betcris closing line by an average of 6% (roughly 12-15 cents on lines near even money) over 250 plays (some are spreads and others are money lines) in the past three months and I am down a ton of money. The market is agreeing with me almost 90% of the plays and about 5% are no move and 5% move against me. What are the odds of this happening? I am getting about 2-3 STD left of the curve based on my negative results. By the way I am not originating the line moves at those books, but I am getting ahead of them on low limit openers. Anyone else have experience with getting beat up so badly when you should have the best of it?

  2. #2
    HeeeHAWWWW
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    Over 250 you can easily lose with a positive edge, done it myself over 1000 :-)
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  3. #3
    The Hat
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    strictly football?

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  4. #4
    The Hat
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    would venture to say your NFL portion is in the positive as well as any football sides with spreads under 13 or so

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  5. #5
    Waterstpub87
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    He said Mid-Markets. I would guess this means not NFL, Nor MLB and NBA. I am not sure actually what a mid market means, prob. international something.
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  6. #6
    Fullkelly
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    Only a few NFL and MLB plays. Mostly niche international stuff ranging from soccer, tennis, and golf with not huge limits.

  7. #7
    The Hat
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waterstpub87 View Post
    He said Mid-Markets. I would guess this means not NFL, Nor MLB and NBA. I am not sure actually what a mid market means, prob. international something.
    gotcha...I took it as second tier books

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  8. #8
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fullkelly View Post
    I attack opening numbers on a few mid-size markets. I have beat the no vig pinny/betcris closing line by an average of 6% (roughly 12-15 cents on lines near even money) over 250 plays (some are spreads and others are money lines) in the past three months and I am down a ton of money. The market is agreeing with me almost 90% of the plays and about 5% are no move and 5% move against me. What are the odds of this happening? I am getting about 2-3 STD left of the curve based on my negative results. By the way I am not originating the line moves at those books, but I am getting ahead of them on low limit openers. Anyone else have experience with getting beat up so badly when you should have the best of it?
    Oh yes, I've seen it. All metrics indicate you should be winning but just aren't. You're beating line moves, and even line error, but still getting losses. This can happen the other way where nothing looks like you should be winning but you win bets; but that won't go on through as many plays if the handicapping is valid. If that second scenario is prolonged, there may be a problem with the capping.

    Good Luck and keep us updated, at the very least, with your stats on beating the line moves as you keep going. It would be interesting to see just how far you get beating those moves with or without a turn in your win percentage.


  9. #9
    Waterstpub87
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    If it makes you feel better, on baseball moneylines, I beat the close enough to generate close to a 1% hold, but still lost 20 units. Over 637 plays. Same thing happened the year before, slightly smaller hold, but still got creamed. Sometimes things don't go your way. Can't really do much except try to get better.

    I don't know how efficient golf matchups and international stuff is. It might not mean as much to beat the close on those.
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  10. #10
    evo34
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    My take, which won't be popular, is that beating the close has less predictive power than it used to. Too many people are using the same methods/angles, incl. chasing "smart" money, and there is overshoot. So it becomes much easier to predict what the market will do than what the fair odds of the game should be.

    As noted, baseball the last couple years is a great example. Pretty easy to guess which way the lines will move from the openers. Unfort, that doesn't mean there is actually any edge in betting that side.

  11. #11
    Fullkelly
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    I agree that no vig closing lines might not be razor precise, but in general they are pretty darn good based on all the literature I have read. I think most good sports traders and the major offshore books would probably say if you can beat it consistently by about 4 cents or 2% it is almost destiny that you will win in the long run.

  12. #12
    turbobets
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    I would keep going if you are getting that kind of edge. Looking over my plays this year I had a couple bad runs that lasted about 100 bets.

  13. #13
    Rich Boy
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    If you dont have faith in closers in their accuracy just arb the other side

  14. #14
    evo34
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    This is an example of beating the close not correlating with ROI in soccer betting (sides only):




    It's certainly not going to prove anything, but it does suggest that there are betting styles and techniques that will result in beating the close and still not having any edge to speak of.

  15. #15
    Fullkelly
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    I think your argument has some merit. This particular soccer stuff doesn't mean much though. They are barely beating the closing line it looks like. (51-55% of the time, but it doesn't show the average per play). You might beat the line by 2% 55% of the time, but the other 45% of the time the line moves against you 5%, so net net you didn't beat the line. I just did some searching and Pinnacle has an article up on their website that has like 300,000 soccer matches analyzed and they basically say that your expected returns in betting are .95+ correlation to beating the no vig number. It seems like this trend is pretty consistent across sports, with some variation.

  16. #16
    ericc
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fullkelly View Post
    I attack opening numbers on a few mid-size markets. I have beat the no vig pinny/betcris closing line by an average of 6% (roughly 12-15 cents on lines near even money) over 250 plays (some are spreads and others are money lines) in the past three months and I am down a ton of money. The market is agreeing with me almost 90% of the plays and about 5% are no move and 5% move against me. What are the odds of this happening? I am getting about 2-3 STD left of the curve based on my negative results. By the way I am not originating the line moves at those books, but I am getting ahead of them on low limit openers. Anyone else have experience with getting beat up so badly when you should have the best of it?
    May have missed it but I don't see any money management in your description. MM is at least 50% of the deal.

  17. #17
    Fullkelly
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    Quote Originally Posted by ericc View Post
    May have missed it but I don't see any money management in your description. MM is at least 50% of the deal.
    I generally bet half to full Kelly criterion amount. Usually about 2-5% of my replenish-able bankroll per play, depending on my perceived edge.

  18. #18
    Waterstpub87
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fullkelly View Post
    I generally bet half to full Kelly criterion amount. Usually about 2-5% of my replenish-able bankroll per play, depending on my perceived edge.
    Betting way too much. 5% is a huge amount.
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  19. #19
    Fullkelly
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waterstpub87 View Post
    Betting way too much. 5% is a huge amount.
    5% is probably conservative when you have a 10+% edge on a bet. Kelly criterion says bet about 8%. This all assumes the edge is accurate. BTCL has been matching my estimate of edge pretty closely.

  20. #20
    ericc
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fullkelly View Post
    I generally bet half to full Kelly criterion amount. Usually about 2-5% of my replenish-able bankroll per play, depending on my perceived edge.
    Determining the amount to bet is important. You may want to reassess the Kelly Criterion.

    http://www.professionalgambler.com/debunking.html

    There are two things to consider when making a bet.
    Who to bet on and how much to bet.
    The first is 50-50.
    The second is: if you win, you didn't bet enough; if you lose, you bet too much.

  21. #21
    HeeeHAWWWW
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    A very quick scan reveals multiple mistakes. That's certainly not a professional gambler.

  22. #22
    Waterstpub87
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fullkelly View Post
    5% is probably conservative when you have a 10+% edge on a bet. Kelly criterion says bet about 8%. This all assumes the edge is accurate. BTCL has been matching my estimate of edge pretty closely.
    Braver man than myself. I agree with the kelly criteria in theory. I worry more about "if my edge isn't actually 10%, I'm going to go broke betting that much"

    Betting 1% means not sweating bets.
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  23. #23
    jtoler
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    Why do you think beating the closer guarantees profit, it doesnt, those that think it does are not thinking.
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  24. #24
    u21c3f6
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    Quote Originally Posted by ericc View Post
    Determining the amount to bet is important. You may want to reassess the Kelly Criterion.
    http://www.professionalgambler.com/debunking.html
    WOW!!! That writer clearly does not understand the concept of Kelly.

    As to the OP's dilemma, the problem is that just because you beat a subset of closing lines does not mean you actually had an edge. I know that alot of people believe that the closing line is always "right" but that is simply not the case.

    Joe.

  25. #25
    semibluff
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fullkelly View Post
    I attack opening numbers on a few mid-size markets. I have beat the no vig pinny/betcris closing line by an average of 6% (roughly 12-15 cents on lines near even money) over 250 plays (some are spreads and others are money lines) in the past three months and I am down a ton of money. The market is agreeing with me almost 90% of the plays and about 5% are no move and 5% move against me. What are the odds of this happening? I am getting about 2-3 STD left of the curve based on my negative results. By the way I am not originating the line moves at those books, but I am getting ahead of them on low limit openers. Anyone else have experience with getting beat up so badly when you should have the best of it?
    I don't know how you're are calculating a 6% edge. You also need to know how much juice you're betting into. For example, if the line is -110 vs. -110 the book margin is 104.76% with 52.38% on either side. If you got your money in at +100 you're only beating the line by 2.38%. The 2.38% will only get you to break-even in this example. If you're betting the winner of an F1 race where there are 6 likely winners the book margin will likely be 117%+. Beating that line by 6% will be very difficult and even if you do you'll still be in losing territory. Bear in mind the closing line should be the line where books think they'd take equal liabilities on either side of the line on additional bets if the event was delayed and the book remained open. It's nothing more than that.

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  26. #26
    Fullkelly
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    Quote Originally Posted by semibluff View Post
    I don't know how you're are calculating a 6% edge. You also need to know how much juice you're betting into. For example, if the line is -110 vs. -110 the book margin is 104.76% with 52.38% on either side. If you got your money in at +100 you're only beating the line by 2.38%. The 2.38% will only get you to break-even in this example. If you're betting the winner of an F1 race where there are 6 likely winners the book margin will likely be 117%+. Beating that line by 6% will be very difficult and even if you do you'll still be in losing territory. Bear in mind the closing line should be the line where books think they'd take equal liabilities on either side of the line on additional bets if the event was delayed and the book remained open. It's nothing more than that.
    I am no expert, but the misinformation seems to be growing in this thread. Obviously BTCL doesn't guarantee that any bet will win, but the consensus view is that it results in long-term profit. Secondly, how is it that someone on this thread doesn't understand the term no-vig? No-vig means the bookmaker margin or vigorish has been removed from the line, so it represents the perceived fair value.

    6% edge means 6% expected value on every dollar wagered. Will keep it simple for this example I bet +112 the line at close is -105/-105 each side for a no vig of even money. 50*1.12-50=.06
    Last edited by Fullkelly; 11-05-17 at 09:41 PM.

  27. #27
    u21c3f6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fullkelly View Post
    I am no expert, but the misinformation seems to be growing in this thread. Obviously BTCL doesn't guarantee that any bet will win, but the consensus view is that it results in long-term profit. Secondly, how is it that someone on this thread doesn't understand the term no-vig? No-vig means the bookmaker margin or vigorish has been removed from the line, so it represents the perceived fair value.
    6% edge means 6% expected value on every dollar wagered. Will keep it simple for this example I bet +112 the line at close is -105/-105 each side for a no vig of even money. 50*1.12-50=.06
    There were some very heated threads about BTCL on this forum many years ago. I and many others are not part of the consensus that thinks that BTCL results in long-term profits. There are many reasons why BTCL will not work for most.

    Let's look at your example above. You base the 6% edge on the fact that the no-vig closing line is +100. I highly doubt that the wager is actually 50/50 and therefore your edge could be higher or more realistically your edge is probably less and in a lot of cases possibly non-existent.
    A +100 no-vig closing line is not a guarantee that this particular contest is in fact a 50/50 proposition and therefore basing your edge on the closing line is probably going to result in an incorrect edge calculation.

    Kelly is never wrong but it relies on accurate inputs. Incorrect inputs based on incorrect edge calculations is what dooms players trying to use Kelly.

    Joe.
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  28. #28
    Fullkelly
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    Quote Originally Posted by u21c3f6 View Post
    There were some very heated threads about BTCL on this forum many years ago. I and many others are not part of the consensus that thinks that BTCL results in long-term profits. There are many reasons why BTCL will not work for most.

    Let's look at your example above. You base the 6% edge on the fact that the no-vig closing line is +100. I highly doubt that the wager is actually 50/50 and therefore your edge could be higher or more realistically your edge is probably less and in a lot of cases possibly non-existent.
    A +100 no-vig closing line is not a guarantee that this particular contest is in fact a 50/50 proposition and therefore basing your edge on the closing line is probably going to result in an incorrect edge calculation.

    Kelly is never wrong but it relies on accurate inputs. Incorrect inputs based on incorrect edge calculations is what dooms players trying to use Kelly.

    Joe.
    I want to be clear I am not talking about one specific game. I am talking about hundreds or thousands of trials. Obviously some closing line moves are glaringly wrong IE Mayweather/Mcregor, but the vast majority of contests are not heavily influenced by the public hype like that.

    You are a minority in your thoughts by BTCL. The sharpest sports books and bettors in the world seem to disagree.

    https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-...T2G5BMD43MYSKT

    The opening line that you are a long-term profitable sports bettor is No-1500/Yes +900 and I have a feeling the No is going to get a lot of action.

  29. #29
    u21c3f6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fullkelly View Post
    I want to be clear I am not talking about one specific game. I am talking about hundreds or thousands of trials. Obviously some closing line moves are glaringly wrong IE Mayweather/Mcregor, but the vast majority of contests are not heavily influenced by the public hype like that.
    You are a minority in your thoughts by BTCL. The sharpest sports books and bettors in the world seem to disagree.
    https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-...T2G5BMD43MYSKT
    The opening line that you are a long-term profitable sports bettor is No-1500/Yes +900 and I have a feeling the No is going to get a lot of action.

    First, that article is a joke and doesn't prove anything. I have seen many threads with your same dilemma and have had many discussions about this very topic. BTCL only means you got a better price, it does not mean that you will be long-term profitable or even if you have an edge on that particular wager.

    The fact of the matter is that my subset of wagers that do not BTCL are still profitable. That means anyone wagering on the other side of my wagers BTCL but were not profitable.

    Now because I disagree with you and try to have a discussion on this topic, you want to get personal. All I can write is that your line for No above is way out of whack so that even if one were to BTCL on No, they would never have an edge.

    Joe.
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  30. #30
    Fullkelly
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    Sorry, that was too harsh. I apologize for my comments.

  31. #31
    u21c3f6
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    Fullkelly, all is well.

    As I previously wrote, this is a subject that has created many heated threads in the past.

    Joe.

  32. #32
    Toples
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fullkelly View Post
    I attack opening numbers on a few mid-size markets. I have beat the no vig pinny/betcris closing line by an average of 6% (roughly 12-15 cents on lines near even money) over 250 plays (some are spreads and others are money lines) in the past three months and I am down a ton of money. The market is agreeing with me almost 90% of the plays and about 5% are no move and 5% move against me. What are the odds of this happening? I am getting about 2-3 STD left of the curve based on my negative results. By the way I am not originating the line moves at those books, but I am getting ahead of them on low limit openers. Anyone else have experience with getting beat up so badly when you should have the best of it?
    Let assume you got average 6% ROI on your bets (you bet on even money). You bet $100 a bet, over 250 bets. Expected profit should be $1500. Now, you are almost never gonna get that exact number. $1500 will be the average profit/loss.

    Actual profit loss will vary from -$2500 to +$5000 more than 95% of time.

    You are likely to lose over those 250 bets around 28% of time, but you are also likely to win more than $2500 37% of time.



    Now imagine scenario in which you could hit 58% on -110 lines, which we all know is not very likely long term. We are talking 10,8% ROI. Even then you have a 3% chance you will not finish in profit after 250 bets. After 1000 bets, there is only 1 in 6000 chance you will noz be in profit. Oh, yes there is still a chance you'll end up like this
    Thats just the way it is.

    From my experience: once in MLB i managed to hit a 24 games losing streak. after that, i never lost more than 8 in a row.

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  33. #33
    Fullkelly
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toples View Post
    Let assume you got average 6% ROI on your bets (you bet on even money). You bet $100 a bet, over 250 bets. Expected profit should be $1500. Now, you are almost never gonna get that exact number. $1500 will be the average profit/loss.

    Actual profit loss will vary from -$2500 to +$5000 more than 95% of time.

    You are likely to lose over those 250 bets around 28% of time, but you are also likely to win more than $2500 37% of time.



    Now imagine scenario in which you could hit 58% on -110 lines, which we all know is not very likely long term. We are talking 10,8% ROI. Even then you have a 3% chance you will not finish in profit after 250 bets. After 1000 bets, there is only 1 in 6000 chance you will noz be in profit. Oh, yes there is still a chance you'll end up like this
    Thats just the way it is.

    From my experience: once in MLB i managed to hit a 24 games losing streak. after that, i never lost more than 8 in a row.
    How did you get that standard deviation number on a $100 bet? I am getting square root( 250*.5 (1-.5))=7.9 then times the avg wager value of $100=$790 standard deviation so basically 95% of the time you should be ahead based on the EV of $1500. Did I do something wrong?

  34. #34
    Toples
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    sorry i got it wrong, but not too much. must have input wrong numbers. its 20% to be losing after 250 bets

    i use binomial distribution to calculate your chances (since its win-lose situation). i dont think SD applies to this one since you get only 1 or 0 as your values. you dont have Gauss curve but only 2 vertical lines.

    anyway, if you do the binomial distribution on your problem this is what you get: on average you hit 50% at +112. you need 119+ winning bets to profit. its gets you loss 20% of time (118 or worse). i think its pretty self evident since you only have to miss 7 more to lose.

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  35. #35
    HeeeHAWWWW
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toples View Post
    From my experience: once in MLB i managed to hit a 24 games losing streak. after that, i never lost more than 8 in a row.
    Please tell me that was moneyline dogs

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