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1. ## NFL theory question (on buyback)

Let's say u bet a side early in the week at +6 for 1-unit (110 to win 100).

No injury info changes during the week. On Sunday one-hour b4 kick...game is now 3.

U can bet the other side at -3. What is your move?

Do u hold your +6 and ignore a -3 middle opportunity?

Do u feel compelled to buy back for a % of your position? If so, how much do u buyback?

BTP
Week 11
4-1-0 686 pts

\$20
Angelman
donation 02/15/2018

2. Always thought you shouldn't try to middle, but looking at the numbers, its close

Consider:

a move from 6 at 110 to 3 is -189.6 or so. So you now have the equivalent of a bet that wins at 65.47% for a price of 52.38%, for a 13.09% advantage.

So at 110 bet, you should win 14.39

Looking at the same calculator, push % are as follows

3.4% on 6

1.68 on 5

2.99% on 4

9.79% on 3

So:

Profit of -10 : 82.14% of the time = -8.214
Profit of 200 : 4.67% of the time = 9.34
Profit of 100: 13.19% of the time = 13.19

14.32

Edit : Bothered me to why the middle made sense. Fixed 110 * 13.09 to be 14.39
Points Awarded:
 SharpAngles gave Waterstpub87 21 Betpoint(s) for this post.

3. I never middle unless I find a live/2H line that gives me a 14+ middle shot. No way only 3 points because like waters pointed out the push odds on 6 and 3 (or 7 and 10, 10 and 13 etc) eat up a lot of the edge.

BTP
Week 14
4-1-0 846 pts

BTP
Week 11
4-1-0 690 pts

\$20
Angelman
donation 02/15/2018

4. I agree with WaterSt and essentially with his numbers, but exact push rates can always be a nebulous area. In reality, because of those numbers, you won’t often see those moves from 6 down to 3. From a market perspective, there is little reason to rule the injury scenario out as the market often overreacts to injuries. For the most part they are all professionals. Obviously there are exceptions.

The reason you took the first line could also be a factor.

Anyway, this year it hasn’t happened but there other situations that have come up that make an interesting proposition. In week 5 we saw Oakland go from -5.5 to -3. That line traded down early in some spots to a pick but more so at -2.5 as many houses opened that way. Considering the QB situation, the books needed that extra money on the favorite and had to trade -2.5. It closed at -3 and Baltimore won 30-17. In week 6 New Orleans was close opening very early at -3 and moving to -5.5 and New Orleans won 52-38.

Also in week 6, Atlanta went from -9 to –13.5 and -14 was available at many houses. Those buying Atlanta -9 or 10 cold seriously have considered +14, and it would have been a good idea as Miami won 20-17. It’s no wonder many houses resisted the move to 14, which would have created perhaps unwanted underdog money.

Another situation is when the line crosses the pick. Usually you see -2.5 get to a +1.5 or so, which isn’t quite enough and that’s why the lines tend to stop. In week 1 of this year, Indy technically went from a -3.5 to a +3.5 vs. the Rams. Of course, that opener was out for a while and then Andrew Luck becomes a factor.

It doesn’t happen often moving on or off some of those numbers and when it does it may not last long. The books know how this works and can even more so influence the bettor than the bettor can influence the bookmaker.

Gaining these middles live is out there and the vigorish can work both for and against you. Note when it’s working with you. In this day and age, it seems the live markets can harvest action when they put a line a half point from an important number and then offer +105 or +120, etc. for it. Anymore, all types of bettors are delving live for an extra piece of the pie, and they will get more and more limited.