1. #36
    StackinGreen
    Can't stop Won't stop
    StackinGreen's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-09-10
    Posts: 7,718
    Betpoints: 10146

    Quote Originally Posted by Bsims View Post
    Someone please explain why lots of people believe parlays are sucker bets. If the parlay offers true odds by multiplying the individual odds together AND you have a positive expected return on each, then the expected return for the parlay is higher than the expected return for each wager. Waterstpub87 pointed this out in a response to the thread "Parlays and expected returns" in this forum. But as HeeeHAWWWW also pointed out, the variance increases.
    There are some very thoughtful people who post in this forum, we can learn a lot from them.
    Indeed, and I proved it this year with round robins in baseball. The math, more importantly, already shows it.

    Variance is a concept that most people, though you can verify it in real life too, will not stick around long enough to try to understand practically.

  2. #37
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar VIP Moderator
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 65,869
    Betpoints: 96860

    Quote Originally Posted by Da Manster! View Post
    I forgot to mention this in my previous but your point is rather moot because you are talking about "buying" points as opposed to playing them from the teaser card...I mentioned this before several times over the years...books like 5dimes and Heritage give you much better odds from their teaser menus where crossing the 0 doesn't effect you in terms of overpricing or getting charged 2 full points going from 1- to +1 as opposed to doing a parlay and buying the points yourself.
    The point remains the same, if you are betting a 6-point teaser, you are being charged for a 6-point teaser when crossing the 0 even though that effectively makes it a 5-point teaser.

    BTP
    Week 8
    5-0-0 461 pts


  3. #38
    Waterstpub87
    Life-Style Arbitrage
    Waterstpub87's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-10-09
    Posts: 2,753
    Betpoints: 511

    Teasers are mostly square bets, with some rare exceptions

    Using the value off of the half point calculator: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/pic...nt-calculator/ and current nfl lines:

    Sharp Teaser:
    Oak 2.5 to 8.5
    Carolina 2 to 8
    Was 2 to 8

    Going from 2.5 to 8.5 is the equivalent of -311.6 (75.71%)
    From 2 to 8 is the equivalent of -320.5 (76.22%)

    To calculate odds of winning: .7571*.76.22*.76.22 = 43.98% Win Rate, 165 payout = 37.74%, 6.24% edge

    Super Square Teaser
    SF 12 to 18
    CIN -10.5 to -4.5
    NYJ 4.5 to 10.5

    SF = -207.7 ( 67.50%)
    CIN= -219.9 (68.74%)
    NYJ = -220.2 ( 68.77%)

    Odds of winning= .319 vs 165 payout = .3774, -5.8% advantage, more than double straight bets

    Teasing through 0

    BUF -2.5 to 3.5
    TB -2 to 4
    DAL -2 to 4

    BUF to 0 is -119.6 from 0 to 3.5 -219.8 (68.73%)
    TB to 0 is -115 from 0 to 4 is -231.6 (69.84%)
    DAL to 0 is -115 from 0 to 4 is -231.6 (69.84%)

    Winning %= .335523 vs 165 payout = .3774, -4.2% advantage, almost double straight bets

    So in reality, the only time one should bet teasers is when one can bet a sharp teaser. Books shade lines however, to protect themselves.
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 11/09/2017

    BTP
    Week 8
    4-1-0 292 pts


  4. #39
    Da Manster!
    Da Manster!'s Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-13-07
    Posts: 10,024
    Betpoints: 3017

    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    The point remains the same, if you are betting a 6-point teaser, you are being charged for a 6-point teaser when crossing the 0 even though that effectively makes it a 5-point teaser.
    well, my other point still stands...it might make a difference if you win or lose the wager...

  5. #40
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar VIP Moderator
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 65,869
    Betpoints: 96860

    Quote Originally Posted by Da Manster! View Post
    well, my other point still stands...it might make a difference if you win or lose the wager...
    But the pricing makes it -EV long term, which is all that matters. Waterstub explained it perfectly above, the only bettable teasers are Wong teasers at the right price, as well as teasing down -6.5 favorites depending on the ML. I am talking NFL only, all other teasers are almost always indeed "sucker bets" for the most part.

    BTP
    Week 8
    5-0-0 461 pts


  6. #41
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar VIP Moderator
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 65,869
    Betpoints: 96860

    Quote Originally Posted by Da Manster! View Post
    well, my other point still stands...it might make a difference if you win or lose the wager...
    The difference between you and I is you look at winning ONE wager, whereas I look at what would happen if you make that same wager an infinite amount of times.

    BTP
    Week 8
    5-0-0 461 pts


  7. #42
    Da Manster!
    Da Manster!'s Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-13-07
    Posts: 10,024
    Betpoints: 3017

    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    But the pricing makes it -EV long term, which is all that matters. Waterstub explained it perfectly above, the only bettable teasers are Wong teasers at the right price, as well as teasing down -6.5 favorites depending on the ML. I am talking NFL only, all other teasers are almost always indeed "sucker bets" for the most part.

    and the vast majority of people who gamble wind up losing in the long so who is the sucker?!...at least I have a proven track record winning consistently over the years....validated and verified here on SBR...at the end of the day, who in the fuk cares as long as you're winning, staying in the black, and making profits?

  8. #43
    Da Manster!
    Da Manster!'s Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-13-07
    Posts: 10,024
    Betpoints: 3017

    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    The difference between you and I is you look at winning ONE wager, whereas I look at what would happen if you make that same wager an infinite amount of times.
    yeah, but who has the money to make the same wager an "infinite" number of times?...the object is to win and come out ahead at the end of the day...you make it sound like gambling is all about making a straight wager...hell, if it was that easy, we'd all be millionaires.

First 12
Top