Hi guys,

I am trying to get less causal about my bets. I need some help with calculating EV.

I realize that I need to shop for the best lines, but for this example I am going to use the numbers from my local book. For comparison, I will also use the lines from Pinnacle as I understand they have some of the most solid lines.

So if I look at this matchup:

Pinnacle Break Even % No Vig % Diamondbacks -140 58.3% 57.1% Mets +129 43.6% 42.8%

Local book Break Even % No Vig % Diamondbacks -143 58.8% 56.7% Mets +123 44.8% 43.2%

Let’s say that I want to research the Diamondbacks and that I personally feel like they have a 60% chance of winning (though I don’t know how to figure that out in real life yet, feel free to give me some guidance there).

EV Calculations

So in calculating EV I need to multiply the probability of winning times the amount won - the probability of losing time the amount lost. The amounts come from the -143 from my local bookmaker, since that is who I am placing the bet with.

So I have (P X 100) - ((1- P) X 143) I think.

My question is whose probability should I use? Should I use the No Juice value from my local guy 56.7%, the No Juice value from Pinnacle since it should be more accurate 57.1%, or should I use my personal feeling of 60%?

Thanks so much.