1. #1
    Capitols44
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    Is winning 53% profitable?

    Let me ask this if a person were to win in sports betting 53% of their bets is this truly profitable when you consider the amount of games that end in a push ? What would be the correct winning percentage including pushes to be profitable ?

  2. #2
    Buffalo Nickle
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    Pushes do not count so doesn't matter. 53% is profitable if you bet the right amounts on your bets. If you overbet, you will go broke.

  3. #3
    Capitols44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buffalo Nickle View Post
    Pushes do not count so doesn't matter. 53% is profitable if you bet the right amounts on your bets. If you overbet, you will go broke.
    Some people would still go broke even if they won 80% of their bets.

  4. #4
    Buffalo Nickle
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    Quote Originally Posted by Capitols44 View Post
    Some people would still go broke even if they won 80% of their bets.
    True. But if you bet what even would be considered a reasonable amount by most, you would still go broke.

  5. #5
    Darkside Magick
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buffalo Nickle View Post
    Pushes do not count so doesn't matter. 53% is profitable if you bet the right amounts on your bets. If you overbet, you will go broke.
    This.
    Even with half kelly your bet size is less than 1% per bet. Ovebetting will sink you

  6. #6
    semibluff
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    Win % is only relevant in relation to odds probability. If you're betting at +115 then 50% is great. If you're betting at -400 then 71% is bad.

  7. #7
    Capitols44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buffalo Nickle View Post
    Pushes do not count so doesn't matter. 53% is profitable if you bet the right amounts on your bets. If you overbet, you will go broke.
    I still don't think this a total correct answer because what if you included paying taxes on your winnings wouldn't you have to win more than 53% to be profitable after you paid your taxes ?

  8. #8
    Buffalo Nickle
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    Quote Originally Posted by Capitols44 View Post
    I still don't think this a total correct answer because what if you included paying taxes on your winnings wouldn't you have to win more than 53% to be profitable after you paid your taxes ?
    Yes. It depends on a lot of things. If you were going to try to make a decent amount of money and report your taxes too, you would need better than 53%. If you were just betting a small amount and taking bonuses, you could do pretty well.

  9. #9
    captrobey
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    Depends on what you are betting. Like with bets of $100 if you are doing a basic -110 bet with say 100 bets the losses lose you the extra $10. Add those in and at the end of 100 games you really would not win anything . But $1000 a game would. I mean you are looking at what $470 extra lost on -110 games on the extra $10 right.

  10. #10
    dlowilly
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    53 * 100 = 5300

    47 * -110 = -5170

    5300 - 5170 = +130
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  11. #11
    5918mike
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    To many other factors to consider, the easy answer, yes, 53% CAN be profitable.

  12. #12
    chilidog
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    Quote Originally Posted by semibluff View Post
    Win % is only relevant in relation to odds probability. If you're betting at +115 then 50% is great. If you're betting at -400 then 71% is bad.
    This is the only response in this thread to pay attention to.

  13. #13
    HedgeHog
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    Quote Originally Posted by dlowilly View Post
    53 * 100 = 5300

    47 * -110 = -5170

    5300 - 5170 = +130
    I would hope that someone skilled enough to hit 53% would be smart enough to bet at a reduced juice Book. With -105 lines, I believe he's up +365 in your example.

  14. #14
    BigdaddyQH
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    If you play the exact same amount of money on every wager, and pay the usual vig (11/10), then yes, 53% is profitable. 52% is NOT profitable.

  15. #15
    BigdaddyQH
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    Quote Originally Posted by HedgeHog View Post
    I would hope that someone skilled enough to hit 53% would be smart enough to bet at a reduced juice Book. With -105 lines, I believe he's up +365 in your example.
    That is assuming that you get paid from that book, which is always questionable when you are dealing with an off shore book. Just look at the complaints in here about that very same subject.

  16. #16
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    That is assuming that you get paid from that book, which is always questionable when you are dealing with an off shore book. Just look at the complaints in here about that very same subject.
    I've never had an issue getting paid from Heritage or 5 Dimes as far as reduced juice books go. And non-USA guys with access to Pinnacle have no worries.

  17. #17
    5918mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    I've never had an issue getting paid from Heritage or 5 Dimes as far as reduced juice books go. And non-USA guys with access to Pinnacle have no worries.
    100% success rate at both Heritage and 5D here as well.

  18. #18
    HedgeHog
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5918mike View Post
    100% success rate at both Heritage and 5D here as well.
    Me, too. I'd take either one of these -105 Books over a -110 local any day.

  19. #19
    mcfugly
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    Quote Originally Posted by semibluff View Post
    Win % is only relevant in relation to odds probability. If you're betting at +115 then 50% is great. If you're betting at -400 then 71% is bad.
    ^^ THIS

    If you are not aware of this then honestly you have no business sports betting, or taking part in any gambling at all for that matter LOL

    This is the most basic of basic math that you surely must know to be anywhere near any form of gambling.

    Is this post a joke/troll??

  20. #20
    evo34
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    Quote Originally Posted by mcfugly View Post
    ^^ THIS

    If you are not aware of this then honestly you have no business sports betting, or taking part in any gambling at all for that matter LOL

    This is the most basic of basic math that you surely must know to be anywhere near any form of gambling.

    Is this post a joke/troll??
    Obviously, the OP is referring to ATS bets. Christ

  21. #21
    thomorino
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    53% could be profitable if you are a very high volume and are betting -110 or better - one thing you have to be careful about is people who hit a high percentage but aren't high volume players- its much harder to hit 54-56% if your a high volume player with 3-4 plays a days than it is to hit 58-60% if your playing 1 game a day.
    Last edited by thomorino; 07-15-17 at 04:35 PM.

  22. #22
    semibluff
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    Not trolling on my part. I try to post helpful, if somewhat simple, betting advice. If you're betting on an English EPL game and your team is 12/5 you need to decide whether they're more than a (100% * 5) / (5 + 12) chance to win. If you think they have less than a 29.41% you should either a) Not bet on them, or b) find someone else offering better odds - better than your calculation of the team's chances.

    Generally I would advise betting on the money line rather than the spread on a 2 outcome event. Normally there is less juice on the money line and thus a greater chance of the line being in your favour. However If you believe the line is more incorrect on the spread than on the money line you should bet on where the error/book's misjudgement is most in your favour.

  23. #23
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by Capitols44 View Post
    Let me ask this if a person were to win in sports betting 53% of their bets is this truly profitable when you consider the amount of games that end in a push ? What would be the correct winning percentage including pushes to be profitable ?
    80 percent of my wagers are baseball 'dogs.
    I'm profitable at 48 percent, sometimes as low as 44 percent if those +160 dogs keep cashing.

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  24. #24
    xKMACKx
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    Well, of course, this is dependent on the price you are paying. I remember when Matchbook was available in North American and I could find -102 and -103 spreads on a regular basis around game time. Too bad they're out of the market, sigh.

  25. #25
    gojetsgomoxies
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    i took to mean that he means 2-sided spread bets, which are most often same odds on both ends.

    basically i think you're winning percentage needs to be above (100+J)/(200+J)... for -110, J = 10. for -107, J =7......... not sure that's the exact definition of Juice i.e. J, but that's how i'm using it....

    if you don't want to do the exact calculation i.e. no access to computer or calculator, you can take the juice, divide 4 and add to 50% to get required winning %.

    so j= 10 and j=7 = 52.5% and 51.75% winning percentage required.. the real numbers are 52.4% and 51.7% which are really close. breaks down when the juices gets much bigger but no one should be betting then.

  26. #26
    Capitols44
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    Interesting points of view. People mention betting bets at -110 and winning 53% of the time. You cant bet 100% of your bets at -110 . Its just not possible the lines move to much and this the real world. Even if you did bet all of your bets at -110 or less you would have to be extremely selective of your picks at best of what the books offer.

  27. #27
    Capitols44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Capitols44 View Post
    Interesting points of view. People mention betting bets at -110 and winning 53% of the time. You cant bet 100% of your bets at -110 . Its just not possible the lines move to much and this the real world. Even if you did bet all of your bets at -110 or less you would have to be extremely selective of your picks at best of what the books offer.
    Unless your betting all dogs

  28. #28
    Capitols44
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    I know people are winning their bets and still losing money because of the crazy drop in bitcoin price now

  29. #29
    clockwise1965
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    Quote Originally Posted by semibluff View Post
    Win % is only relevant in relation to odds probability. If you're betting at +115 then 50% is great. If you're betting at -400 then 71% is bad.

    Spot on.

  30. #30
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Capitols44 View Post
    Interesting points of view. People mention betting bets at -110 and winning 53% of the time. You cant bet 100% of your bets at -110 . Its just not possible the lines move to much and this the real world. Even if you did bet all of your bets at -110 or less you would have to be extremely selective of your picks at best of what the books offer.
    The OP is talking about ATS bets and even Totals in the ATS sports. No need to ever lay more than -110 on those.

  31. #31
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    The OP is talking about ATS bets and even Totals in the ATS sports. No need to ever lay more than -110 on those.
    Good point, however I'll pay a little juice sometimes to get off an 8 total in bases.
    Hate those 8 flat total games.

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  32. #32
    semibluff
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    The OP is talking about ATS bets and even Totals in the ATS sports. No need to ever lay more than -110 on those.
    If 1 book is laying an NFL game with Team A @-110 +3 points vs Team B and another book is laying Team A @-125 +3 points surely you're going to take the 2nd book's line and odds on the underdog rather then the 1st book's line and odds? The SBR half-point calculator suggests at +3 the odds should be -135.3 rather than -125.

  33. #33
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by semibluff View Post
    If 1 book is laying an NFL game with Team A @-110 +3 points vs Team B and another book is laying Team A @-125 +3 points surely you're going to take the 2nd book's line and odds on the underdog rather then the 1st book's line and odds? The SBR half-point calculator suggests at +3 the odds should be -135.3 rather than -125.
    For the purposes of this thread, just pass the game entirely and focus only on value plays laying -110 or less.

  34. #34
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    Good point, however I'll pay a little juice sometimes to get off an 8 total in bases.
    Hate those 8 flat total games.
    Totals in MLB and NHL are different than totals in football and hoops, that is why I specified totals in "ATS sports".

  35. #35
    HeeeHAWWWW
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    Quote Originally Posted by thomorino View Post
    53% could be profitable if you are a very high volume and are betting -110 or better -

    Many soccer gamblers have -103 or better, even as good as -101 net for the big leagues. 53% in that will make you very rich :-)

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