Originally Posted by
Poogs
Hello all,
I recently found a book that lets me parlay pretty much anything on MLB, full game and 1st five innings (1H).
So naturally my first instinct is to blindly parlay 1h run lines with the total, IE +.5 and under 4.5, or -.5 over 5, etc.
This seemed like stealing to me at first, but Ive lost a good amount so far. Im getting worse than market numbers but not too too bad. It has standard online book juice.
So my first question is, are 1h lines correlated enough to be +ev with vanilla numbers? After some thinking, they dont seem to be as tied together as I thought. For example, if the total is 4.5 and run line .5, the correlation factor is 9 (something I guess I made up. Lower is better and 1 would be perfectly correlated.)
On the other hand, full game lines have a correlation factor of between 5 and 6 most of the time.
I'm wondering how selective I need to be for both bets, if the 1h parlays are even worth it, and if there are any totals I should look for. Im assuming lower is better because it increases the correlation but I could be wrong. I know home and under is slightly correlated so I keep that in mind too.
Basically wondering if I should be getting down as much as possible on any and all combos of these and just praying I stick around long enough, or if I should only be betting a few of these a night. Thanks for reading and in advance for any help.