1. #1
    Poogs
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    Question regarding MLB Correllated Parlays

    Hello all,

    I recently found a book that lets me parlay pretty much anything on MLB, full game and 1st five innings (1H).

    So naturally my first instinct is to blindly parlay 1h run lines with the total, IE +.5 and under 4.5, or -.5 over 5, etc.

    This seemed like stealing to me at first, but Ive lost a good amount so far. Im getting worse than market numbers but not too too bad. It has standard online book juice.

    So my first question is, are 1h lines correlated enough to be +ev with vanilla numbers? After some thinking, they dont seem to be as tied together as I thought. For example, if the total is 4.5 and run line .5, the correlation factor is 9 (something I guess I made up. Lower is better and 1 would be perfectly correlated.)

    On the other hand, full game lines have a correlation factor of between 5 and 6 most of the time.

    I'm wondering how selective I need to be for both bets, if the 1h parlays are even worth it, and if there are any totals I should look for. Im assuming lower is better because it increases the correlation but I could be wrong. I know home and under is slightly correlated so I keep that in mind too.

    Basically wondering if I should be getting down as much as possible on any and all combos of these and just praying I stick around long enough, or if I should only be betting a few of these a night. Thanks for reading and in advance for any help.

  2. #2
    Bluehorseshoe
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poogs View Post
    Hello all,

    I recently found a book that lets me parlay pretty much anything on MLB, full game and 1st five innings (1H).

    So naturally my first instinct is to blindly parlay 1h run lines with the total, IE +.5 and under 4.5, or -.5 over 5, etc.

    This seemed like stealing to me at first, but Ive lost a good amount so far. Im getting worse than market numbers but not too too bad. It has standard online book juice.

    So my first question is, are 1h lines correlated enough to be +ev with vanilla numbers? After some thinking, they dont seem to be as tied together as I thought. For example, if the total is 4.5 and run line .5, the correlation factor is 9 (something I guess I made up. Lower is better and 1 would be perfectly correlated.)

    On the other hand, full game lines have a correlation factor of between 5 and 6 most of the time.

    I'm wondering how selective I need to be for both bets, if the 1h parlays are even worth it, and if there are any totals I should look for. Im assuming lower is better because it increases the correlation but I could be wrong. I know home and under is slightly correlated so I keep that in mind too.

    Basically wondering if I should be getting down as much as possible on any and all combos of these and just praying I stick around long enough, or if I should only be betting a few of these a night. Thanks for reading and in advance for any help.
    Are you talking a local book?
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  3. #3
    Poogs
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    Yes. Ill PM the book to anyone who helps me but I dont know how much thatll help. If you try hard enough I bet you could find a way to get an acct there though

  4. #4
    trytrytry
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    u are not allowed PMs

    anyway dont make wagers like that you will never get paid by that so called sham book offing that in error

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  5. #5
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by trytrytry View Post
    ...anyway dont make wagers like that you will never get paid by that so called sham book offing that in error
    Exactly. This book's business model is only sustainable if they don't pay. Otherwise they will get to a point where they can't pay.

    In the end, you'll likely just be called a shot taker.


  6. #6
    Poogs
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    Lets assume for the sake of discussion that I will be paid whether the bookie pays or not. I dont deal directly with many if any bookies

  7. #7
    RussianMike
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    Man, I've had situations like that with local books as well that just really wanted my action. Make special provisions for different players, so don't listen to all that non-paying jive. Had a book that allowed me to parlay puck lines with totals in hockey. Anyways, for your situation, I'd be selective somewhat on the games, and you are right as far as the thinking goes. Don't need to hammer both sides of it and be too obvious, as doing so will just grind you out some winnings every week, but the book will just see what you are doing and after a few weeks realize they really have no outs like that. I'd selectively just shoot for the overs, as that'll give you the biggest hits on the winners, and if you are having really big starts to a week, keep foot on the gas and try to put down as much as you can, knowing that any given week could be your last. They will cut you off eventually, so when you have big starts to a week, treat it like it's your last and max that shit out. Just wondering, is that just a book that lets all players get down like that, or did the book allow it just for you for your action? On my deal, it was discussed beforehand, and he had to adjust it with the costa rican call center just to let them know I guess I was that special type of degenerate. LOL he was right, ended up loser on the year with him.

  8. #8
    Optional
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    Tell the guy you cant parlay these things other places and you like it, and see what he says.

    If he says thats great. Then go ahead.

    Otherwise you might be freerolling yourself if you just hit them hard.

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  9. #9
    Poogs
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    Guys

    Ive been betting with locals for over a decade. I appreciate the concern you all have for me getting paid but for the 3rd time, please take my word for it when I say its not an issue.

    I would love some discussion about the math of the plays though if anyone can offer some help. Again, Ill gladly PM the book to someone who can really help me. I would imagine a smart enough guy could turn that into an acct at this place and as far as I can tell, the parlay rules apply to everyone.

  10. #10
    Optional
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poogs View Post
    Ive been betting with locals for over a decade. I appreciate the concern you all have for me getting paid but for the 3rd time, please take my word for it when I say its not an issue.
    If he is a good bookie for you that you trust, maybe think about the implications of taking a shot at him a bit more. Remember you are going to have to face this guy to get paid. He probably won't stay as friendly if you start scoring the same way over and again and he realizes why.

    But I'm not so sure a first 5 HC line is very correlated with Match Totals anyway. Have you checked historical data to test it?

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  11. #11
    Bluehorseshoe
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poogs View Post
    Guys

    Ive been betting with locals for over a decade. I appreciate the concern you all have for me getting paid but for the 3rd time, please take my word for it when I say its not an issue.

    I would love some discussion about the math of the plays though if anyone can offer some help. Again, Ill gladly PM the book to someone who can really help me. I would imagine a smart enough guy could turn that into an acct at this place and as far as I can tell, the parlay rules apply to everyone.
    How are you messaging anyone?
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  12. #12
    Poogs
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    by pressing the button that says message me? or email, or skype, or gchat, whatever. I dont think itll be too hard to send someone a url.

  13. #13
    Poogs
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    If he is a good bookie for you that you trust, maybe think about the implications of taking a shot at him a bit more. Remember you are going to have to face this guy to get paid. He probably won't stay as friendly if you start scoring the same way over and again and he realizes why.

    But I'm not so sure a first 5 HC line is very correlated with Match Totals anyway. Have you checked historical data to test it?

    Bro.

    I honestly do very much appreciate your concern for me getting paid, no joke. But like I said, please...for the sake of discussion let us assume that I will get paid no matter what. Like I said before, I dont deal directly with the bookie in question

    Your second line is what im after. I haven't tested it against data which I suppose I should do. Im not really 100% sure how to do that exactly. I know I could buy the data pretty easily but big data base, historical trend stuff is not my bread and butter to say the least. Any advice on this would be cool.

    And again im honestly thankful for your concern and your time, hope im not coming across like a dick, Im just trying to get discussion going about the math of the plays without getting bogged down with the issue of getting paid. Ive been putting shitty local guys like this out of business since I was 17 - I am the king of the low hanging fruit. I know when to slash and burn and when to go easy. This is a slash and burn type of situation.

  14. #14
    Optional
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    Maybe you're not trying to be a dick. But as a couple of us have suggested, taking a shot at your trusted local is a bit of a dick move. ;-)

    That said, I don't think what you are proposing is so correlated it could be seen as taking a shot anyway.

    So worth trying to work out if there is an edge there for you to use. Someone with a personal database might happen along and be willing to share some stats for you.

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  15. #15
    Bluehorseshoe
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poogs View Post
    by pressing the button that says message me? or email, or skype, or gchat, whatever. I dont think itll be too hard to send someone a url.
    Bring it.
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  16. #16
    Poogs
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    Maybe you're not trying to be a dick. But as a couple of us have suggested, taking a shot at your trusted local is a bit of a dick move. ;-)

    That said, I don't think what you are proposing is so correlated it could be seen as taking a shot anyway.

    So worth trying to work out if there is an edge there for you to use. Someone with a personal database might happen along and be willing to share some stats for you.
    lol this is getting bizarre now. Please show where I said anything about a "trusted local." Ive never met the guy, never will, and he operates on the other side of the country. And if you think this is "taking a shot" then you must not have bet with a lot of these types of operations. Its dog eat dog and I would be an idiot if I didnt bet these (assuming Ill get paid which as Ive said before I will). And the plays are definitely coorelated, at least the full game plays are for sure. No other book in the world takes these parlays, Ive gotta think its for a reason.

  17. #17
    Bluehorseshoe
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    You don't have a message button.
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  18. #18
    Poogs
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    jesus christ dude. then ill send you a penetrating letter in the mail. or an email. or a message on skype. or gchat or aim or facebook msg or ill fly a plane with the url hanging on the back of it over your house. I mean really, im sure we could find a way to get it done.

  19. #19
    Bluehorseshoe
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poogs View Post
    jesus christ dude. then ill send you a penetrating letter in the mail. or an email. or a message on skype. or gchat or aim or facebook msg or ill fly a plane with the url hanging on the back of it over your house. I mean really, im sure we could find a way to get it done.

    penetrate off.
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