1. #1
    willis815
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    New NFL rules impact on betting outcomes

    Has anyone taken a look at the impact of some of the recent rules changes and the impact on common betting numbers. In other words, items like moving the FG back and Kickoff placement; has anyone seen an impact to key numbers such as 3 or 7?

  2. #2
    silverdollar444
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    Yes there has been a decent impact. I don't have the stats in front of me but the key numbers of 3 and 7 have become slightly less significant.

  3. #3
    semibluff
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    Too early to tell. I don't have points specific data. I can give you some other basic data.

    In the 1st 8 weeks of he season home teams win 59% of games.
    In the last 8 weeks of the season home teams win 55% of games.
    Early home team win % outperforming late season home win % is at least a 5 year trend.

    I have some home/road/favourite/underdog data, but it's much more subjective.

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    STAY STRONG
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    You just gotta stay strong.

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    StackinGreen
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    Quote Originally Posted by semibluff View Post
    Too early to tell. I don't have points specific data. I can give you some other basic data.

    In the 1st 8 weeks of he season home teams win 59% of games.
    In the last 8 weeks of the season home teams win 55% of games.
    Early home team win % outperforming late season home win % is at least a 5 year trend.

    I have some home/road/favourite/underdog data, but it's much more subjective.
    Too much variance and not enough edge to matter, 10% built in vig or more on ML will not make 4-5% meaningful to bet, at all

    Anything regarding betting HAS to be ATS in these games. Usually in tighter markets, where time is less so markets are less efficient = 2H betting

  6. #6
    semibluff
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    Quote Originally Posted by StackinGreen View Post
    Too much variance and not enough edge to matter, 10% built in vig or more on ML will not make 4-5% meaningful to bet, at all

    Anything regarding betting HAS to be ATS in these games. Usually in tighter markets, where time is less so markets are less efficient = 2H betting
    I wasn't suggesting anyone should blindly bet on an NFL home/road/favourite/underdog. I merely posted data that many people will surprised at. If someone chooses to downplay the most recent 1256 results and go with older, less relevant data they are welcome to do so.

    To suggest only betting on the spread or only on the money line is dogmatic. The idea is to wager at better odds of an event happening than the true odds of an event actually happening. Dismissing either spread or money line betting out of hand will reduce opportunities to find good betting propositions.

    To guarantee a return of 1000 at odds of -110 you'd have to wager 523.81 on either side. The bookie expects to win 47.62 out of every 1047.62, (4.54%). The bookie % can be lower on the money line. For example at this particular moment the top event on today's SBR Odds page is a basketball game between Toronto and Washington. Betonline have the spread at +5/-5 at odds of -110 (4.54%). Their money line on the game is -220 +190, You would have to wager 687.5 @ -220 and 344.83 @ +190 to guarantee a return of 1000. The juice is 32.33 out of 1032.33, (3.13%). Money lines normally have less juice on uneven head-to-head match-ups when compared to the spread.

  7. #7
    StackinGreen
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    That was my point, you point out numbers that aren't enough to beat the vig, and you don't even have a specific angle with what you pointed out. It's dead on arrival, not trying to be a dick, just being real

    I do like you showing that the money lines often have less "juice" in their pricing
    Last edited by StackinGreen; 03-03-17 at 03:35 PM.

  8. #8
    StackinGreen
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    Quote Originally Posted by semibluff View Post
    To guarantee a return of 1000 at odds of -110 you'd have to wager 523.81 on either side. The bookie expects to win 47.62 out of every 1047.62, (4.54%). The bookie % can be lower on the money line. For example at this particular moment the top event on today's SBR Odds page is a basketball game between Toronto and Washington. Betonline have the spread at +5/-5 at odds of -110 (4.54%). Their money line on the game is -220 +190, You would have to wager 687.5 @ -220 and 344.83 @ +190 to guarantee a return of 1000. The juice is 32.33 out of 1032.33, (3.13%). Money lines normally have less juice on uneven head-to-head match-ups when compared to the spread.
    What's the best way to state your facts above, that the book gets 4.54% out of every game risk by any individual? Or that they get 4.54 out of every 1000 disbursed, for example ($45.40)?

    Also, the 4.54 juice and the 3.13 ML juice you note is a shared juice percentage, no? What would be the relative "price" of the ML proposition as compared to a -110 spread bet, something like just under -107?

    I think this is what Joe Peta realized in his baseball bets, beyond his ability to take advantage of the marekts, that the juice is much more forgiving in ML endeavors. Thanks for your explanation.

  9. #9
    semibluff
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    Quote Originally Posted by StackinGreen View Post
    What's the best way to state your facts above, that the book gets 4.54% out of every game risk by any individual? Or that they get 4.54 out of every 1000 disbursed, for example ($45.40)?

    Also, the 4.54 juice and the 3.13 ML juice you note is a shared juice percentage, no? What would be the relative "price" of the ML proposition as compared to a -110 spread bet, something like just under -107?

    I think this is what Joe Peta realized in his baseball bets, beyond his ability to take advantage of the marekts, that the juice is much more forgiving in ML endeavors. Thanks for your explanation.
    Bookies look at what it costs to guarantee a return of £100 or $1000 etc. In the -110, -110 example above it costs $1047.62 to guarantee a return of $1000. Bookies think of that as a mark-up of 4.762% rather than a net 4.54%

    Books only earn their juice if they get the odds right in a particular market. They can set the juice high or low. The higher the juice the less money is likely to be bet with them. If they set odds on a coin flip at -130, +110 then there's juice but long term the book ought to lose money. People ought to back the +110 option. In reality people don't always bet the way you'd expect them to. If the market is prepared to wager 54.2% of the money @ -130 then -130, +110 are the correct market odds...even though -110, -110 ought to be the correct odds.

    The exact amount of juice is obviously dependant on the particular odds. The point is that the amount of juice varies. -220 against +190 is a very generous example. When compared to the juice on a -110 flip the juice in this example compares to -106.68. Another way to think about it is at $1000 @-110 you'd get back $1909.09. $1000 @ -106.68 would get you $1937.37.

    Juice varies from sport to sport and also on the number of possible outcomes. On a 2 outcome NFL game spread the mark-up is likely to be 4.76%. On a 4 outcome NFL division futures bet the mark-up is likely to be nearly 7%. On a 16 outcome NFC Championship preseason futures bet the mark-up is nearer 13%. By comparison a 3 outcome major soccer match would have a low mark-up of 4.1%. An F1 race would probably have a massive mark-up of 23% on the 1st 10 in the betting. The mark-ups on the next manager to replace a sacked coach can be 100%+.

  10. #10
    StackinGreen
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    Nice examples, thanks.

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