1. 01-05-17 10:55 AM #1
    olddirtyfighter
    olddirtyfighter's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-22-09
    Posts: 16
    Betpoints: 2728

    Kelly calculator

    Is there a way to use SBR Kelly calculator for simultaneous events without parlays?

    If I have 10 bets same night and I want to place 10 single bets, how can I find out what Kelly criterion suggest should be my stake for each bet? Of course, I know what is my edge on every bet compared to odds.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 01-05-17 11:15 AM #2
    u21c3f6
    u21c3f6's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-17-09
    Posts: 790
    Betpoints: 5198

    Yes. Select: # Independent Events and in the next drop down box select: 10. Then enter your data below.

    Joe.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 01-05-17 11:37 AM #3
    olddirtyfighter
    olddirtyfighter's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-22-09
    Posts: 16
    Betpoints: 2728

    Thanks Joe.

    But that way I get my stake divided between single bets and parlays. If 4 or 5 bets have much bigger edge than others, I got funny results where Kelly suggests that 99% of money bet should be on parlays. I just want to get right info what is optimal to bet if I use only sinle bets.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 01-05-17 11:41 AM #4
    u21c3f6
    u21c3f6's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-17-09
    Posts: 790
    Betpoints: 5198

    Below the button: Calculate Kelly, make sure Stakes for parlays of size is set to 1 and not all.

    Joe.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 01-05-17 11:42 AM #5
    u21c3f6
    u21c3f6's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-17-09
    Posts: 790
    Betpoints: 5198

    Are you using this calculator?

    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/pick...ly-calculator/
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 01-05-17 03:57 PM #6
    olddirtyfighter
    olddirtyfighter's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-22-09
    Posts: 16
    Betpoints: 2728

    Yes. Problem is I'm building new model and some results are like 90% win probability for +100 bet which is ridiculous but I want to see how model performs when Kelly betting. In the end even though total stake for all bets is 99% of bankroll, only 0,05% is on singles, and everything else is on 2-10 parlays.

    in fact, this is what I'm looking for, but unfortunately link in Ganch's post doesn't work.
    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...there-bug.html
    Last edited by olddirtyfighter; 01-05-17 at 04:31 PM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 03-05-17 09:56 PM #7
    Division
    Division's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-31-16
    Posts: 150
    Betpoints: 927

    Quote Originally Posted by olddirtyfighter View Post
    Of course, I know what is my edge on every bet compared to odds.
    You think you know, its not an exact science.

    If you're wrong you will bet too much and end up losing long term.

    Imagine being wrong with 5 simultaneous bets and losing 80% of your bankroll in a couple of hours.

    I hope this is a theoretical exercise for you and you are not considering doing this?

    A full Kelly stake is far too high in practice. You have a 33% chance of having your bankroll before doubling it which is a recipe for disaster.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
Top
« Previous Thread | Handicapper Think Tank | Next Thread »