thanks for the feedback. much appreciated
i would say FADE MAC teams in bowls is fine for a system. you may want to do some qualitatitve tweaking, which of course is impossible to back test.......... AND i would NOT expect it to last too long. either bettors adjust or MAC gets better and people don't adjust enough.
it's funny i posted this as i am reading Michael Lewis' book about Daniel Kahneman/Behavioural econonics....... t
he next page he started on how people think small sample result converge to the population average far more quickly than they do...... i.e. people think after 20 flips of a coin that it'll very close to 50%/50% but it often isn't.
i found this out myself recently doing a challenge that the economist magazine put forth. even 40 flips of a coin i wasn't too confident that it was 50% chance instead of 60% chance - i.e. was it a loaded coin?
lastly, the one poster makes a good point. ATS or totals results are not really like flipping a coin. you know when you flip a coin whether it's heads or tails. whether X team covered depends at least 5% to 10% of the time on what line you got i.e. open vs. close. as the one poster mentioned.
i guess my original question was whether sports betting is a bit more susceptible to runs than a coin flip assuming both have 50% chance. game results somehow with small positive correlation?