[spankadank]

I am new to the site and wondering what is the best way to learn how to handicap games. I have been following a few guys and it seems like they use some kind of computer generated simulator. Can you buy a simulator? DO yo have to create one? I have tried accuscore and have won money on NFL and CFB player props. I have also won money playing the money line on NCAAB, I would bet on teams that won the sim 70% or greater plus covering the spread 55% or greater. It seems that I win alot more money the first part of the season and towards the end I don't do as well. I really want to learn how to cap. I am open to any suggestions.

[Busterflywheel]

Keep reading in this section...this is where you learned the good stuff

[THE PROFIT]

Capping is no exact science. The oddsmakers actually handicap it, we just have to find their mistakes. Consider it more like private detective work

[Wrecktangle]

If it's working for you, why change?

[spankadank]

I just want to evolve. I want to be a better handicapper.

[suicidekings]

I am new to the site and wondering what is the best way to learn how to handicap games. I have been following a few guys and it seems like they use some kind of computer generated simulator. Can you buy a simulator? DO yo have to create one? I have tried accuscore and have won money on NFL and CFB player props. I have also won money playing the money line on NCAAB, I would bet on teams that won the sim 70% or greater plus covering the spread 55% or greater. It seems that I win alot more money the first part of the season and towards the end I don't do as well. I really want to learn how to cap. I am open to any suggestions.

The most important elements to handicapping games are having good data and developing a logical approach to your capping. You can use a variety of methods involving simulations, linear regression, etc. The math behind most of these approaches is not overly complicated and as stated above, you can do almost everything you need with a good working knowledge of Excel. In my opinion, you need to generate the numbers yourself for long term success or you just won't have a good feel for them. However you go about generating fair lines, the thing that really defines a good handicapper is the ability to interpret the results and draw conclusions as to why they differ from the lines available from sportsbooks.

I personally use Monte Carlo simulations because they're extremely simple, making it easier and faster to run sims for a large number of games on a daily basis and identify opportunity. If your method for capping is time/labour intensive, you won't be able to stick with it

The first steps you should take if you're serious about learning to handicap sports are:

1) Pick a sport that you're the most comfortable with and focus on it to start. Spreading yourself too thin is a recipe for failure.
2) Acquire good game data. You need sufficient data to describe not only a team's current season performance, but also what the team is capable of. Have they been under/over-performing?
3) Read up on basic stats (mean, standard deviation, variance, sample size, etc), Monte Carlo Simulations, and linear regression. You can find enough info on Wikipedia or other online resources on these subjects to get a good grasp.
4) Put some thought into the mindset of the books. The books' primary objective is typically to set the lines such that the action will be balanced on both sides (to guarantee their profits from vig). With that in mind, you can draw conclusions from situations where the betting is imbalanced and the books don't react as expected (Reverse Line Movement), or when the original line deviates from where a fair line should be and there doesn't seem to be a good reason for it (injuries, etc).

The really big point is #4. Anyone can play around with numbers, but it's the interpretation of those numbers that allow you to pick your spots and be successful.

[JohnAnthony]

Great reply SK, I am also been wondering where should I start. Just started researching on Monte Carlo simulations but it seems quite complex =/

[suicidekings]

Great reply SK, I am also been wondering where should I start. Just started researching on Monte Carlo simulations but it seems quite complex =/

The simplest ** Sims could be expressed in Excel as: MIN + RAND()*(MAX-MIN), where MAX & MIN are the upper and lower bounds you would expect for each variable, and RAND() is a function that will randomize your final value within that range. The real trick comes in figuring out how you're going to define those upper and lower bounds in a way that makes sense for what you're doing.

[JVP3122]

4) Put some thought into the mindset of the books. The books' primary objective is typically to set the lines such that the action will be balanced on both sides (to guarantee their profits from vig). With that in mind, you can draw conclusions from situations where the betting is imbalanced and the books don't react as expected (Reverse Line Movement), or when the original line deviates from where a fair line should be and there doesn't seem to be a good reason for it (injuries, etc).

Is there a specific site where one could get information regarding how a game is being bet? I know there's a consensus value on SBROdds, but it's only for 5Dimes. I use The Greek and Bookmaker, is there any place where I could get their info?

[suicidekings]

Two minute warning gives info from sports insights for sides but not totals. then there are a variety of other ones such as vegas insider that give info on both sides/totals from limited sources.