[Ominous]

Ive tried to cap some props for the superbowl - gotto learn to do it some day I guess.

Im sortof noob on this so I would like some input as to if my method and numbers are completly off or if they are similar to what you pros get

Anyway, Ive capped NO TD props.

What Ive done is as follows:

Ive taken the number of TDs a player has scored through RegS and PS and divided it with the number of games he has played. Lets call this number A.(I also excluded the laydown games as per justin7s recommendation)

Then I make two corrections:

First correction B = (expected team total for SB/league avg team total)

Second correction C = (R/P)^(pos)

where
R= enemy team rushing TD allowed per game/league avg rush TD allowed per game
and
P= enemy team receive TD allowed per game/league avg receive TD allowed per game

pos= (player rushing TD/player total TD)*2-1
[pos=1 if player only scores rushing TD and -1 if player only scores recieving TD, and 0 if player scores equal number of rushing TD and recieving TD]


I take A*B*C and hopefully come up with expected number of TDns and then I take poission distribution to compute chance of 0 TD occuring.

The numbers I got for colts are, (Chance to score TD):

Reggie Wayne 36%
D Clark 33%
P Garcon 13%
A Collie 30%

J Addai 73%
D Brown 33%
C Simpson 29% - this guy hardly played in PO games at all though as far as i can tell


Now I have some questions

How do I figure out the expected playing time each player will get from the stats? Simpson for instance has no yards or attempts in any playoff game
Is the third correction factor, C, needed? and can it be made more accurate? - I get a feeling that it throws my numbers off as NOS has allowed twice as many rushing TD and half as many passing TD as the avarage team.

I would be greatful for any input I really need some help as Im quite noob at this

My numbers dont match very well with what I see the book offering TBH

[Justin7]

A couple other adjustments you might consider... Compare the team's average scoring versus its predicted scoring in the Super bowl.

For example, if Indy scored 30 points a game, and the spread/total imply 36 points, that would increase TD scoring by 20%.

Second thing - be aware of roster changes that make big impacts. When Shockey is out or gimped, the other receivers all catch more.

[Ominous]

I actually did adjust for expected scoring for superbowl game compared to avarage team scoring, it is the factor I call B.

How significant do you think it is that NOS has allowed about twice as many running TDs as league avarage and only half as many recieving TDs?
NOS has allowed 1,37 rushing TD/game and 0,94 rec TD/game.
League avg is allowing 0,9 rushing TD/game and 1,4 recieveing TD/game .

Is the sample size to low here (19 allowed rush, 15 allowed rec) or does NOS defence actually make the enemy more likely to score by rushing?