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What are the true odds
When you make a bet, lets say new orleans is playing the COLTS for the superbowl. Lets say the line is a pick, does this mean you have a 50 percent chance to win. LETS TAKE THE SAME GAME , but its next year and the line is 7 points and new orleans is favored there are two teamsone must win ,because of the 7 point spread are the odds of winning still 50/50? IF YES CAN YOU EXPLAIN IF NOT CAN YOU EXPLAIN THANKS
I noticed no answer yet thanks keep looking for answer
There isnīt really an answer to your question. If the game is a pick, then yes it will be very nearly 50/50 unless the entire markets has things very wrong.
Where there is a significant spread (like 7 in NFL), it will normally, but not always be the case that there is a bias towards the favourite. Historically more than 52% of 4+ point underdogs in the NFL manage to cover the spread.
When you change the odds in your example to a 7-point spread, are you asking about the chances of winning the game or winning a wager? They're two different things.
Assuming the line is accurate, pick means that there is a 50-50 chance that either team will win. If the line is 7 points, then there is a 50-50 chance (leave push out of the calculations) that NO will win by more than 7 points but the chance of NO to win the game is greater than 50-50.
Joe.
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