1. 01-27-10 01:50 PM #36
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by roasthawg View Post
    I'm sure they're against closers as that info is generally a little easier to get. 6,000 games is a small sample... I'd say the Under does indeed hit over 50% of the time in all sports but nowhere near 52.5% longterm.
    And even if it did, it would be irrelevant without considering the vig.
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  2. 01-27-10 03:36 PM #37
    FreeFall
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    Quote Originally Posted by statnerds View Post
    there is no golden goose. there is no situation where betting blindly will prove profitable (except for 1 in the NFL and 1 in NCAAF).

    Statfox is the best and easy to use. can check data on MLB in seconds. teams that went Over for the season...

    2008 - 12
    2007-15
    2006- 19
    2005- 9
    2004-13
    2003-14

    but has been mentioned, juice on totals in NHL and MLB can be 20 or 30 cents on any given day.

    the one stat i would love to see is how the Under does in the NBA when there are 4 games or less scheduled
    No were getting somewhere. Especially on TNT Thursdays. I'd imagine you could find an edge there especially before gametime. LT found this on non Saturday CFB games last year and I'm sure you may see something similar for NBA.
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  3. 01-27-10 05:51 PM #38
    the shadow
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    Does anyone know what the average price is at pinnacle is for playing all unders?(any educated guesses)
    If its -105 than these 6000 games made quite a profit. In fact i would think unders would have slightly less juice than overs because the books know people like to bet overs. Agreed,6000 games is too small a sample.
    Leads me to a math question:If you flip a coin 6000 times, what are the odds that it will hit say 52.5% over 6000 flips?
    The answer will give a better perspective to this problem. thanks!
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  4. 01-27-10 07:20 PM #39
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    Average is higher than -105 for MLB and NHL. Maybe -115 for MLB and -120 for NHL? Those are just guesstimates on my part that can be answered more precisely by anyone that has 2009-10 database handy that includes odds on totals.
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  5. 01-27-10 08:46 PM #40
    the shadow
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    LT,it looks like pinnacle has a 8 cent line on totals. Wouldn't it be safe to assume the avg. lay would be -104?
    For instance tonights openers for nhl are +125,+115,+114,-115,-120,-125,+120(under openers)
    I gotta believe the avg. lay over an entire season would be around -104.
    Am i missing something?
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  6. 01-27-10 08:56 PM #41
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    Three of the +odds had a posted total of 5 though, and those have a high push rate.
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  7. 01-27-10 09:18 PM #42
    the shadow
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    LT,i just looked at past results this january and it looks like the unders were twice as much as overs in laying extra juice,so it is possible that the avg. lay could be -110(guess).It's the way hockey totals are structured. Some books may have a game under 5 +120 and others may have the same game under 5.5 -120.
    Anyways thanks for your input!!!
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  8. 01-27-10 09:58 PM #43
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    Well for consistency's sake, if your source is Covers, then the research should be based on Pinny closers since that is what they use.
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  9. 01-28-10 12:13 AM #44
    DeluxeLiner
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    matchbook as stated earlier...what if you get are getting -101 average
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  10. 01-28-10 12:38 AM #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by DeluxeLiner View Post
    matchbook as stated earlier...what if you get are getting -101 average
    That would be lovely.

    But I don't think it will happen with MLB/NHL.
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  11. 01-28-10 12:31 PM #46
    Busterflywheel
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOMINATER View Post
    doing the same thing all the time will never end up with a plus result it is impossible
    point blank
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