Originally Posted by
gLonghorn
roasthawg,
i agree that certainty of expected win% is a fools errand and i understand your simplified 1/40 decision. at the same time, i don't like the 1/40th approach because it doesn't consider the relative merit of each opportunity.
if you pick totals at 56% and lines at 54%, there is tremendous value in the long term of having wagered a larger unit size on the totals. it is an easy cop out to just use 1/40th, but part of maximizing profit is not taking the easy way out.
fwiw, i understand that it's impossible to know your true expected win%, but understanding your relative win% (sides vs totals or NFL vs CBB or whatever) is not hard to understand, and that is enough to make this worthwhile.