[Raleigh77]

I am new to the think tank and my apologies if this topic has been covered or answered in part or in full in previous posts.


I am interested in meeting rollover requirements as quick as possible. I can already achieve this fairly easily through scalping/middling, etc.

If I were to make several small plays at books that I was trying to roll over money at on lines that were half pt. or more off market, would these be plus EV by themselves or would they at least be plus EV when factoring in the bonus as some minus arb situations.

If so, what is the threshold, half a pt, in moneylines what does the difference have to be between the off market line and the Pinny line to make that play profitable with the bonus or not.

Thanks in advance for all responses.

[gambleballs]

half point off for what sport? obviously a half point in a NFL spread is worth more than a nba total. Some numbers are completely worthless and some are very valuable. You need a chart of push probabilities to know how much your particular "off market" play is worth. Checking to see how much Pinny is charging for the point is a easy shortcut, but not an exact measure.

[Johnny 55]

i would say there are a lot of variables here but moneylines i think probably separation of 10 and half pt. should be good enough in football not sure about basketball.

[TomG]

Courtesy of Sick Gambler from his glory days at TheRX

http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=205418

IN NBA- YOU MUST END UP AT LEAST 1 PT BETTER THAN THE CLOSING LINE.

IN NBA TOTALS- YOU MUST END UP AT LEAST 1.5 PTS BETTER THAN THE CLOSING LINE.

IN NHL- YOU MUST END UP AT LEAST 10+ CENTS BETTER THAN THE CLOSING LINE.

IN MLB- YOU MUST END UP AT LEAST 5+ CENTS (10 CENT LINE) BETTER THAN THE CLOSING LINE

IN NFL- YOU MUST END UP AT LEAST 1 TO 1.5 PTS BETTER THAN THE CLOSING LINE, DEPENDING ON THE #.

Words to live by, boys.

[Raleigh77]

Is this in relation to the closing line or what I asked which is in relation the Pinnacle line at the time you are placing the bet. Example:

SIA has the Wild currently at +120, Pinnacle has them at +107

Is there a way one can calculate what kind of advantage if any one would have on their bet with the SIA number.

[Santo]

Work out the 'true' pinny line (+113 or so) and work your edge from there, but of course that assumes Pinny have the true price, and that may or may not be safe.

[Johnny 55]

TomG-

Wanted to thank you for posting that link, that is by far the only intelligent information I have ever gleaned from going to the RX.

Hopefully some people could comment further on some of the points brought up on the RX thread. I, for one would like to be able to establish a chart of what actually constitutes an off market play, not just on spreads but on moneylines as well, obviously it will vary depending on the sport and the above post provides a guideline but to establish a detailed chart would be greatly beneficial to all and woudl be a nice addition to other helpful features such as the half pt. calculator, arb calculator, etc.

[Justin7]

If you want to break even making rollover plays...
NBA - 1/2 point better on sides, 1 on totals
NFL - 1/2 to 1 point
NCAAB - 1/2 point on sides, 1 on totals

Look at the Push-rate calculator to see how much you're getting. If you're getting 10 cents better than market at -110, it's breakeven.

[Johnny 55]

Justin- What about for MLB and NHL. Also, what about moneylines in NFL,NCAAB, and NBA. Thanks for all your work to help all of us by the way. You dont have to help us but you do and I for one greatly appreciate it.

[Justin7]

MLs work the same way. Look at the market ML, and figure out the effective no-vig rate.

An obvious example - if the market has both sides of the ML at -110, +100 is a good rollover play. It gets a bit more complicated with big favorites - i.e. -300/+270. The no-vig price is not -285, but you'd be ok using that (playing either -285 or +285) to meet rollover.

[Raleigh77]

thx Justin