Lavoisier,
Aaron Brown, author of
The Poker Face Of Wall Street, points out that: "...
Strategies with positive expected return less than their variance (or standard deviation squared) of return are guaranteed to blow up eventually. In practice, they produce tremendous profits for a period, but eventually they all fail. Their expected value is high, but volatility drag gets them all in the end..."
In simple terms, only choose trading strategies with long-term positive median outcomes. In your example and without seeing the actual distributions of trading data for each strategy, I would expect the arbitrage option will be the only one likely to have long-term profit potential.
matekus
[Illiud Latine dici non potest].