[nate686]

Any thoughts about this? I'm looking for something to give me a better way to predict how lines are moving besides betting percentages of the public

[KVB]

Create your own point spread and money line and, if you are sharp enough, you can predict that most lines will move towards your line.

The majority of lines offered move towards the line I create, better than 78% of the time. When it doesn't move towards my line, I usually understand why, or uncover my mistake. For the most part, the bookmakers sharpen the odds makers' line fairly quickly so you have to know your markets.

As far as public betting percentages, I posted in the think tank once why those numbers are useless over the long haul and short term alike. The reason they still get used would undoubtedly be due to bettors finding non correlated short term success, and attributing that to their new found "ability to read" the line movements and shown betting percentages.

The market inevitably catches up to these bettors.

Bottom line, you will be much better off doing you own work. Keep it simple, I posted the other day...don't go around the block to get next door.

[nate686]

Thanks for the detailed response

[evo34]

The majority of lines offered move towards the line I create, better than 78% of the time.

Gotta love boasting like this without a shred of evidence. The OP asked for software that might help him, not unverified claims of personal performance.

[KVB]

Gotta love boasting like this without a shred of evidence. The OP asked for software that might help him, not unverified claims of personal performance.

Fair enough evo. But that claim is hardly a boast…

The OP was looking for a better way to predict how lines are moving. His current way, with percentages is rarely very useful. For just software, understanding the criteria the software uses is essential in navigating the marketplace.

The point I was making was in the value of doing your own work. It can sometimes help you learn why you went wrong, made a mistake, or lost a game or series of games. We learn from our mistakes.

Software by itself, without understanding background, won’t be as helpful.

I make multiple lines for games and compare those lines to the market. Any serious bettor should do the same. I predict an opening line as well as multiple layers of sophistication to create multiple lines.

Some can be very far from the fluid, dynamic market offerings.

There are many, many ways to handicap sports, there is no single formula or software.

I’ve said it many times; understanding why the line opens where it does and why it moves to where it closes will go a long way towards profit in betting over the long haul.

Don’t be upset that I didn’t detail some methods, understanding why doing your own work is valuable is just as important as actually doing your own work.

[Bill Dozer]

Watch the faster books move first on http://www.sportsbookreview.com/bett.../mlb-baseball/. Then you can pretty much predict who will follow.

Also some line types will often move before others. You can watch the money lines move in baseball and get a feel for which run lines are about to move. http://www.sportsbookreview.com/bett...l/pointspread/

A page like this with all line types per event can be helpful http://www.sportsbookreview.com/bett...h-cubs-751556/

On pages like http://www.sportsbookreview.com/bett...liers-2845948/ you can watch full game spreads move before lines makers get around to adjusting the smaller markets like half times and quarters. Thats one reason why the limits are smaller.

[T4TRUTH]

keep track of information available to you, read a lot make notes.
If you like electronic devices, keep and built some performance reports of your own to use a references.
if you dont like computers write it down.
Obviously looking for another system will be just somebody else's point of view or how they interpret statistics.
You will build your own charts and graphs and have a starting point of zero.
Just like wall street do you study all the graphs analysts provide to show market predictions or do your own due diligence?
I recommend the due diligence.
You can take a good amount of guess work out of many equations if you build enough analysis.
I would never depend on someone else's though.
they say "do not believe everything you hear" & " and only have of what you see" so many might try to proclaim one way or the other percentages, your own stats will show you and either help or hurt your pocket.
So again like wall street, follow the money to a point watch the trades/ bets/ line moves. like again in trading sit on fence too long and lose. That is why is called GAMBLING.
Any other way they would have to reinvent the name for it to not sports betting accounts but savings accounts.
You will notice trends and cycles just like everything else providing you stick with your own analyzed information. When you move away from your work and look to someone else's you may get a wrong read and make an error. Errors in the game of gambling will cost you but can be recovered.

[linebacker67]

Watch the faster books move first on www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/mlb-baseball/. Then you can pretty much predict who will follow.

Also some line types will often move before others. You can watch the money lines move in baseball and get a feel for which run lines are about to move. http://www.sportsbookreview.com/bett...l/pointspread/

A page like this with all line types per event can be helpful http://www.sportsbookreview.com/bett...h-cubs-751556/

On pages like http://www.sportsbookreview.com/bett...liers-2845948/ you can watch full game spreads move before lines makers get around to adjusting the smaller markets like half times and quarters. Thats one reason why the limits are smaller.

Great Post!!

[CHUBNUT]

Formulating your own line or using software to predict it means nothing in the scheme of things. Neither incorporate the essential latest information and at best only shows you what the opening line should have been all things being equal. Sadly there is no such thing as a mechanical line that is better than the books line for the above reason.

[KVB]

Formulating your own line or using software to predict it means nothing in the scheme of things. Neither incorporate the essential latest information and at best only shows you what the opening line should have been all things being equal. Sadly there is no such thing as a mechanical line that is better than the books line for the above reason.

I wholly disagree. This simply isn't true.

Essential latest information may not be relevant to the line created...there are as many ways to handicap a game as there are handicappers.

[CHUBNUT]

I wholly disagree. This simply isn't true.

Essential latest information may not be relevant to the line created...there are as many ways to handicap a game as there are handicappers.

I remember when I was as foolish. You will never beat an up to date line long term with outdated information, I hope you dont lose too much before you realise this.

[Bill Dozer]

Its really the same as tradng a stock short term. If you handicap AAPL earnings will be up and then someone says thats the case publicly the stock is going to head up and you want to be in before that. You need the before price to make money long term...before the info is out. In the case of sports betting, that info often is what a Billy Walters is on, where Pinnacle is going to move or what Right Angle Sports is about to release.

[KVB]

I remember when I was as foolish. You will never beat an up to date line long term with outdated information, I hope you dont lose too much before you realise this.

Been doing this for almost 20 years, I don't play every line, I seek enough value to gain an edge in the marketplace then test and verify that edge, in the marketplace, then take positions accordingly.

I don't fight an up to date line with outdated information, it just doesn't work that way. I don't need to "beat" a line, I just need to be better than the average the market is pulled towards.

I win because the betting public I compete against is constantly behind, doesn't understand what they are doing, and refuses to learn.

[scratbandit]

For a generic line that has potential I would go to scoresandodds.com and look at there matchup criteria and it will give you a generic line to start with. It works quite well to be honest. Its based off statfox. All the responses didnt even give a starting point which you ask for. Here is a simple start when u dont have a shit ton of time to make your own line.

[downsouth]

As far as line movement, you can get a odds service or even use SBR odds to determine what lines have moved and how much. As far as software that will help you predict which lines will move before they actually do and help you get ahead of the curve they generally do not exists for sale to the public.

Good luck

[KVB]

For a generic line that has potential I would go to scoresandodds.com and look at there matchup criteria and it will give you a generic line to start with. It works quite well to be honest. Its based off statfox. All the responses didnt even give a starting point which you ask for. Here is a simple start when u dont have a shit ton of time to make your own line.

Scoresandodds.com will make a basic unsophisticated line, true. Like I said above…”Software by itself, without understanding background, won’t be as helpful.”

It isn’t long before the sharps in the market confuse the shit out of you and the books take advantage.

You got great advice on where to start in this thread…make your own line.

You do not need to include everything under the sun to make a solid line, don’t go around the block to get next door, you need to understand the relevant factors that matter.

I can make a line as solid as the unsophisticated one from scoresandodds.com from basic box score information in about 5 minutes with a pen and a piece of paper.

Many of the responses in this thread reflect what I’ve posted a million times…it’s not what gamblers don’t know that hurts them, it’s that so much of what they do know is wrong.

That said, read this thread again if you want to start learn to bet with confidence. Some posters gave solid information.

I know this is mine, but for example…

...I’ve said it many times; understanding why the line opens where it does and why it moves to where it closes will go a long way towards profit in betting over the long haul.

Don’t be upset that I didn’t detail some methods, understanding why doing your own work is valuable is just as important as actually doing your own work...

For more practical information on why the line opens where it does, moves to where it closes, as well as some expert insight into the mechanics and psychology of the oddsmaker, bookmaker, and bettor and even some evidence that evo34 called for in a previous post I suggest you visit the thread below and read my posts.

I have been posting in a tutorial format applying market analysis to the CFL markets. You should read it from the beginning. The markets have been immature but getting sharper but you can see how well line movement has been predicted…lol…evo34’s evidence.

Also, it offers a rare opportunity to earn while you learn…

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...16443-cfl.html

Good Luck