1. #1
    jane2geo
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    Which stat source is less wrong?

    I use forced fumbles in my NFL model. It’s a very small factor for sure but does anyone know
    who’s stats are less wrong? When I scrape PPD I get 439 total FF’s. Of course these are real time and are often adjusted after the fact. Espn, Yahoo, and NFL.com have concurrence on only 6 teams and list totals of 500, 407, 453 respectively for the 2014’16 game regular season.
    Thoughts or insight are welcome.

  2. #2
    a4u2fear
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    I'm not sure which are right or wrong, but I use ESPN for most of my stats and while I can't say they are 100% right, they are helping me beat the lines...

    Just a suggestion - do not use fumbles recovered but use total fumbles. It's been proven that recovering a fumble is extremely random but if you're forcing more there is a good chance eventually you'll get one or two recovered.

  3. #3
    jane2geo
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    Quote Originally Posted by a4u2fear View Post
    - do not use fumbles recovered but use total fumbles. It's been proven that recovering a fumble is extremely random but if you're forcing more there is a good chance eventually you'll get one or two recovered.
    Agreed, just looking at potential recoveries from FF’s.

    I think I’ve resolved my quandary. When comparing player FF rather than just team forced fumbles I found that the higher numbers from ESPN include FF’s from offensive players, ie. Geno Smith had two FF, …really! Not exactly the type of FF that I want in my predictive numbers.

    Thanks a4u2 and anyone else that gave any thought to my question.

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