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Food for thought for betting a 20,000 dollar bankroll
You have a $20,000 bankroll....your betting rules state that you will be flat betting 3% of your bankroll per bet.
How many net units will you need to turn your initial stake into 1 million dollars?
a) approximately 150 net units
b) approximately 300 net units
c) approximately 500 net units
d) approximately 980 net units
Answer in a few hours.
A, probably a few less, assuming you win every bet and there is no vig
33.33 net units
3% if $20,000= $600 units
$20,000/&600= 33.33 units
Assuming the 3% is considered a unit. If 1% is considered a unit then the answer is 100 net units.
So, I answer, none of the above.
My bad, I was reading two forums at once and thought I read this one to say "double your bank roll"
Corrected answer to follow.
Last edited by Slick Lizard; 01-15-15 at 09:24 PM.
This would vary considering when wins and losses come if you are recalculating the bankroll after each bet. But assuming that you made all bets at -110 while risking 3 % and never lose it would be about 145-150 net units. If flat betting 3% (risk amount) of the original $20,000 bankroll it would be about 1797 net units.
None
3% would mean $600 a unit.
980 units x $600 is only 588k
Starting with 20k, need 980k more. 980k/600 = 1,633 net units
None of the above.Originally Posted by Jupiter333
You can't grind a 20K bankroll into a million dollars.
Flat betting 600 dollars a game (3% of a 20K stack), you would have be 1666.67 over par (166...x 600 = a million) and that's without the juice.
You would have to hit a few 25K bets along the way, and then some.
krk1030, that is correct assuming +100 odds. My numbers were calculated to include the initial $20k in the final $1mil
OP needed to include odds and state if the 3% risk would be recalculated after each bet. There is no definitive answe here.
The 3% is not $600 because once you win the first bet now you are betting 3% of the new total which is a greater and greater number after each win. So if you bet 3% each time and win every bet with no vig then you are growing at a rate of 3% just like bank interest. The equation reads 20000*1.03^X=1000000 and you solve for X.
On something like your 133rd bet you would go over $1,000,000
25k bankroll 2% 1 Unit...
Perfect setup.
If the unit (amount bet) is re-calculated each day to get to our 3%, as per our betting rules, it is difficult to get an EXACT amount of units. If we assume a perfect scenario where we don't lose our first week or month, thus lowering our amount that we can bet, it is easier/quicker to make our million. I'll demonstrate how many units it would take re-calculating our 3% monthly and ASSUMING that we make 10 units/month. "Assuming makes an ass out of you and me." This calculating demo is to open our minds to possibilities, not to show anyone how clever or not clever anyone is. If anyone has further or better calculating skills put them forth. Obviously it is common to have draw downs or net negative periods in our betting which lowers our betting stake, which results in lowering our betting unit. Consequently that throws a monkey wrench into our calculations. Those with advanced math skills would probably be able to do further calculating estimating our win rate at 55%, etc. In the end, calculating something such as this is based on estimations and assumptions, there is no EXACT answer to how many net units it will take. If you are a proficient better (a winner), 55-57% hit rate goals will get you where you want to go, provided you adhere to money management rules.
To reiterate.....these calculations are done with a win rate of 10 units a month, calculating a unit as 3% of our bankroll at the start of each month.
month stake unit/bet new betting stake net units won
1 20,000 600 26,000 10
2 26,000 780 33,800 20
3 33,800 1014 43,940 30
4 43,940 1318 57,122 40
5 57,122 1714 74,259 50
6 74,259 2228 96,536 60
7 96,536 2896 125,497 70
8 125,497 3778 163,281 80
9 163,281 4898 212,265 90
10 212,265 6368 275,945 100
11 275,945 8278 358,728 110
12 358,728 10,762 466,347 120
13 466,347 13,990 606,251 130
14 606,251 18,188 788,126 140
15 788,126 23,644 1,024,566 150
Last edited by Jupiter333; 01-16-15 at 02:01 PM.
The columns did not match up when sending......now looks like gobbledygook, sorry about that.
Net winning 150 units, with a starting stake of 20,000, betting a calculated 3% of the betting stake (calculated at the beginning of each month) gets you and me to slightly over 1 million. This would take 15 months to achieve. That's winning an average of between 2 to 3 units/week.
To win a unit, you would have to bet more than a unit, 2 to 10 percent more, depending on what vig your bookie charges you....so, to be pedantic, you are not actually betting 3% of your stake, but to win one unit. For example, if you wish to win one unit, your first month you would be betting 660 to win 600 if you are paying 10% juice, which would calculate out to betting 3.3% of your stake......(660 divided by 20,000).
Last edited by Jupiter333; 01-16-15 at 02:08 PM.
would never happen
limits
If we make a couple of other assumptions:
1) We can hit 5 out of 9 bets, betting flat.
2) Using my bookmaker's vigorish, where my odds average 105/100.
3) Calculating our ROI making 55.5 x $952 dollars per hundred bets = $52,888 per hundred bets made.
4) Calculating losing 44.4 x 100 = $4444.44 losing per hundred bet.
5) Taking 52,888 and subtracting 44,444 gives me $8,444 per $100,000 wagered giving me an ROI of 8.4% .
How many bets will it take us to get to a net 150 units?
150 units/.084 ROI = 1786 bets
Those that keep a betting journal can figure out how many bets they average in a month, and also their ROI. An excess of 8% ROI is very good, even excellent. Betting Resource, according to their website has a 6% ROI. His calculated increase of bankroll goes up 1000% in an 18 month period. (I am not here to plug them or anyone else.).
1) Our personal betting manifesto (or betting rules) should include betting with a plan or a future goal in mind.
2) Betting a specified percentage of our personal bankroll that protects our bankroll.
3) Keeping track of our bets, our ROI, and what our profit makers are. For example from my journal, I know that my NHL bets and NBA totals have been net losers this year. Now because I have the data in front of me, I can make a betting rule not to worry myself about betting those type of wagers.
4) So, what is working, and what is not?....are we chasing losers or winners? Do we need to make a list of what we are betting for that day and stick to it, before we place our wagers? Is it better for us to watch the games we're involved in?...or not?
5) Does it work for us to tail someone else or not? It is my personal experience that tailing others has a net negative on my bankroll, and for me, losing because I have taken someone's opinion is twice as aggravating as losing from my own.
6) Are we actually winners...or not? If we are net losers, we need to educate ourselves more and get better, get out of the game, follow someone who wins, or limit ourselves to bets that are for entertainment value only, and what we can afford to lose.
7) And the most basic of all questions...."is it my goal to be a winner?"
You must have never heard of these two sites called Pinnacle and Matchbook
Betting without math, one has to expect losing all bankroll sooner or later
But betting is never as smooth and predictable as math.
So instead of fortune making formulas, stick to humble formula which helps a steady increase of bankroll.
Spend your energy and thoughts on how to find edges on some sports which you follow closely
Math formulas doesnt make one rich, but finding the edges does.
sam houston st under 148 sorry
pinny doesn't take U.S action.
Matchbook has no where close to the market depth or liquidity.
6% is horseshit. Pros (the few i've encountered) land in the 2%-3% range, and that is considered a superior year. you can't just throw out these numbers and expect them to be accepted. unless you have a specific audience in mind...
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