1. 01-01-15 08:04 PM #1
    GSoro
    GSoro's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-26-14
    Posts: 87
    Betpoints: 802

    If you could only use one tool what would it be?

    If you could only use one tool for handicapping games, like going off of only ONE stat OR ONE trend (rather it be public trends, or '78-13 on the road' type of trends) which ONE metric do you think is the most valuable?

    For me I think it would be the 'As a favorite' trend' if I had to choose right now but I'm still not certain. What about you guys??
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 01-01-15 08:42 PM #2
    a4u2fear
    TEASE IT
    a4u2fear's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-29-10
    Posts: 8,147
    Betpoints: 35459

    Do not follow trends
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 01-02-15 02:09 AM #3
    GSoro
    GSoro's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-26-14
    Posts: 87
    Betpoints: 802

    I disagree but interested in why you believe so? And to you what's the most important tool you use? Rather it's a key stat or anything...
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 01-02-15 02:10 AM #4
    GSoro
    GSoro's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-26-14
    Posts: 87
    Betpoints: 802

    I disagree but interested in why you believe so? And to you what's the most important tool you use? Rather it's a key stat or anything...
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 01-02-15 02:42 AM #5
    Sawyer
    Sawyer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-01-09
    Posts: 7,592
    Betpoints: 6650

    Quote Originally Posted by GSoro View Post
    If you could only use one tool for handicapping games, like going off of only ONE stat OR ONE trend (rather it be public trends, or '78-13 on the road' type of trends) which ONE metric do you think is the most valuable?

    For me I think it would be the 'As a favorite' trend' if I had to choose right now but I'm still not certain. What about you guys??
    Pinnacle U/O Lean in NBA.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 01-02-15 12:21 PM #6
    a4u2fear
    TEASE IT
    a4u2fear's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-29-10
    Posts: 8,147
    Betpoints: 35459

    Quote Originally Posted by GSoro View Post
    I disagree but interested in why you believe so? And to you what's the most important tool you use? Rather it's a key stat or anything...
    I don't use a "single tool" or "trend", I use hundreds/thousands of games, hundred/thousands of stats to develop my own lines, predicted scores, etc. using detailed analysis and excessive mathematics.

    It's not as simple as one trend
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 01-02-15 12:27 PM #7
    dalogester
    dalogester's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-02-13
    Posts: 1,088
    Betpoints: 416

    Number of white chicks banged the night before. Oh and if there is other races subtract 1 from the equation. If the number is greater than 2 then its a 5 star play 10 units. 1-2 would be a 3 star play for 5 units. 0 Is a no play and -1 and on is a straight fade for 3 units.

    Cheers!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 01-02-15 01:50 PM #8
    yak merchant
    yak merchant's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-04-10
    Posts: 109
    Betpoints: 6170

    Quote Originally Posted by dalogester View Post
    Number of white chicks banged the night before. Oh and if there is other races subtract 1 from the equation. If the number is greater than 2 then its a 5 star play 10 units. 1-2 would be a 3 star play for 5 units. 0 Is a no play and -1 and on is a straight fade for 3 units.

    Cheers!
    You laugh but I used to have a "White dudes on defense" NCAAF system that wasn't far off and won money.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 01-03-15 07:44 AM #9
    Big Bear
    Love your neighbor
    Big Bear's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-01-11
    Posts: 43,253
    Betpoints: 14

    One tool??????

    FILM.

    What i do is every week i randomly DVR different games that i dont have time to watch. And then at some point i go back and watch them. I dont like to bet for or against any team i have not seen on film.

    And before wagering a game i try to cram as much film study as possible in.

    i am a really good judge of talent. I look for all kinds of things but body language and confidence goes a long way.

    This was the biggest reason i was so confident Ohio State was going to beat Bama str8 up.

    I saw major holes in Bama's secondary. And I saw a Ohio state team who was playing with "swagger"
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 01-03-15 07:48 AM #10
    Big Bear
    Love your neighbor
    Big Bear's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-01-11
    Posts: 43,253
    Betpoints: 14

    so whatever you wager NHL, NBA , college hoops start DVRing games so that you build yourself a nice inventory of film on every team you may potentially want to wager for or against

    this is especially helpful in college basketball since there are litterally 100's of teams.

    in the NBA this is not as useful of a tool bc u never know what kind of effort a team is going to give

    in college for the most part u know the players are going hard every night.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  11. 01-03-15 07:54 AM #11
    3PtShooter
    3PtShooter's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-13-08
    Posts: 3,929
    Betpoints: 16221

    use the Hunch theory tool
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 01-03-15 02:23 PM #12
    Dakota
    Dakota's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-06-05
    Posts: 237
    Betpoints: 17248

    Quote Originally Posted by Sawyer View Post
    Pinnacle U/O Lean in NBA.
    could u elaborate on this system? Do u compare lines vs. other books? tia
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  13. 01-04-15 08:32 AM #13
    statnerds
    Put me in coach
    statnerds's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-23-09
    Posts: 4,047
    Betpoints: 103

    CLV

    positive you will win long term

    negative you are fukked
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  14. 01-04-15 02:43 PM #14
    GSoro
    GSoro's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-26-14
    Posts: 87
    Betpoints: 802

    Quote Originally Posted by a4u2fear View Post
    I don't use a "single tool" or "trend", I use hundreds/thousands of games, hundred/thousands of stats to develop my own lines, predicted scores, etc. using detailed analysis and excessive mathematics.

    It's not as simple as one trend
    Well of course, hopefully we all do....I was just seeing if anybody had a favorite metric is all... Just creating conversation...
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  15. 01-04-15 02:43 PM #15
    GSoro
    GSoro's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-26-14
    Posts: 87
    Betpoints: 802

    Quote Originally Posted by yak merchant View Post
    You laugh but I used to have a "White dudes on defense" NCAAF system that wasn't far off and won money.
    lmao
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  16. 01-04-15 02:45 PM #16
    GSoro
    GSoro's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-26-14
    Posts: 87
    Betpoints: 802

    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    One tool??????

    FILM.

    What i do is every week i randomly DVR different games that i dont have time to watch. And then at some point i go back and watch them. I dont like to bet for or against any team i have not seen on film.

    And before wagering a game i try to cram as much film study as possible in.

    i am a really good judge of talent. I look for all kinds of things but body language and confidence goes a long way.

    This was the biggest reason i was so confident Ohio State was going to beat Bama str8 up.

    I saw major holes in Bama's secondary. And I saw a Ohio state team who was playing with "swagger"
    Even though I personally don't, this here is probably the most important tool I must say
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  17. 01-04-15 04:15 PM #17
    CidaliaRod
    CidaliaRod's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-08-14
    Posts: 8
    Betpoints: 651

    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    One tool??????

    ... but body language and confidence goes a long way.
    If you could find a way to measure confidence that should be your tool.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
Top
« Previous Thread | Handicapper Think Tank | Next Thread »