Let's talk about tonight's game pitting the San Diego Chargers against the Tennessee Titans. Some books continue to rate the Chargers as an underdog at +3 points. This is amazing to me.
By my estimation the Chargers have a 0.529 straight-up probability of winning this game, and with that three-point gift (and I mean gift) they have a 0.608 probability of winning against the spread. If you were to place a $100 bet on the Chargers, the wagering value of that bet would be $16.10---not bad for a day's return on investment. Sportsbook players have a good chance of winning against the spread here... a probability of 0.608 against the spread is very good in the world of sports wagering.
As for the Titans, well, betting $100 on that team, favored by three points, has a negative wagering value (-$25.19) according to my calculations. Don't bother betting on the Titans.
Digging deeper, we have to wonder what is going on here. What are the bookmakers thinking? Yes, the Titans are at home. But home field advantage, judging from the recent Sagarin ratings, is less than three points.
What about injuries? The Chargers have six players on injured reserve or out status, as do the Titans. The Chargers have four more players on probable or questionable status than the Titans, but none of these players is essential to winning the game. Phillip Rivers is just fine, thank you. And with 25 touchdowns to 9 interceptions (compared with a 10-to-4 ratio for Vince Young)... well, I'll take Rivers tonight.
Oh, am I forgetting the dreadful trip across the country at Christmas time. We know what the touts have been saying about those poor West Coast teams having to endure the rigors of air travel. Give me a break. These are men who travel for a living and party all hours of the day and night.
Of course, not all the books sit at +3 for the Chargers. So if you aren't shopping the line, you may have to settle for +2.5, +2, or even +1. Nevertheless, game simulations with the Chargers at +1, say, still have them winning against the spread with a probability of 0.542. At +1 for the Chargers, the wagering value of a $100 bet remains positive ($3.49), though nothing to get excited about.
Indeed, it appears that the opening lines for this game may have given the Titans more credit than they deserve. I checked VegasInsider around 6 p.m. on Wednesday, December 23 to get the +3 line. So at that time many books were giving the betting public a gift. Thank you, sportsbooks. Pease do this again, especially with the ensuing playoffs.
The Chargers are clearly on their way to a successful postseason, and this game against the Titans may not mean much in the grand scheme of things. But, I say the Chargers will be in true form tonight. A Christmas stocking awaits them, full of touchdown and field goal goodies. And the poor Titans, well, you know, there used to be a story about bad children getting coal in their stockings.
So much for my holiday report... my first blog on the SBR Forum. Hope it's a winner.
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Charging Ahead on Christmas Night
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