[jgemma1]

Been experimenting on making a one unit play on the opening receiving team in the first quarter and a one unit play on the second half receiving team in the third quarter.

There is often about a 1-2 minute window between the coin toss results being tweeted and the lines closing.

Does anyone know if this strategy has positive EV?

Not sure where I would find the historical data to do a legitimate analysis on this.

Thanks

[statnerds]

unsure on historical data. betting blindly based solely on the winner of coin toss seems terribly illogical. even with understanding that nearly all knowable information is already accounted for in the line, you should still factor in the offense/defense prowess of the teams. you would take say Jax in the 1st qtr vs GB because Jags set to receive opening kick?

having wasted all of those words, i will go out on a very strong limb and suggest the market is efficient even in this area and you will find no opportunity to profit. i do like the thinking though, keep pursuing avenues that most folks never consider. you will find some that prove profitable.

[cincy]

Yeah I think if you know who won the coin toss & know who will receive the kickoff that's good additional information to factor into your handicapping. But some books take down the quarter lines a few minutes before kickoff and when the NFL moved the kickoff location 5 yards so there would be more touchbacks it reduced the advantage of receiving the kickoff. But its still a decent idea. The biggest problem might be getting the information on who will receive the kickoff right after the coin toss. How will you get that information? Does anyone know where to get this information? TV does not usually show the coin toss? I would pay or give up betpoints if someone could tell me where to get receive kickoff info for all NFL games right after the coin toss.

[evo34]

unsure on historical data. betting blindly based solely on the winner of coin toss seems terribly illogical. even with understanding that nearly all knowable information is already accounted for in the line, you should still factor in the offense/defense prowess of the teams. you would take say Jax in the 1st qtr vs GB because Jags set to receive opening kick?

If the line didn't move after the coin toss, of course you would... In this situation, the line has already factored in the "prowess" of each team. It has not factored in who will have the first possession. Unless, of course, the defer vs. receive tendencies of the both coaches are extreme. (Yes, it is worthwhile to study the what coaches do when they win the toss, esp. since preferences are changing rapidly: http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/m...nd-half-110914).

[evo34]

BTW, it's a pain in the ass (someone should have the aggregate data), but you can find historical coin toss results game by game on NFL.com: http://www.nfl.com/liveupdate/gamece...F_Gamebook.pdf (page 9)

[jgemma1]

Yeah I think if you know who won the coin toss & know who will receive the kickoff that's good additional information to factor into your handicapping. But some books take down the quarter lines a few minutes before kickoff and when the NFL moved the kickoff location 5 yards so there would be more touchbacks it reduced the advantage of receiving the kickoff. But its still a decent idea. The biggest problem might be getting the information on who will receive the kickoff right after the coin toss. How will you get that information? Does anyone know where to get this information? TV does not usually show the coin toss? I would pay or give up betpoints if someone could tell me where to get receive kickoff info for all NFL games right after the coin toss.

The information is occasionally tweeted by the beat writers or official team twitters a minute or two prior to kickoff. The lines that I have been betting are not affected by this information so it does expose an inefficiency. It's just a question of whether or not the advantage is enough to compensate for the books edge.

[jgemma1]

Yeah I think if you know who won the coin toss & know who will receive the kickoff that's good additional information to factor into your handicapping. But some books take down the quarter lines a few minutes before kickoff and when the NFL moved the kickoff location 5 yards so there would be more touchbacks it reduced the advantage of receiving the kickoff. But its still a decent idea. The biggest problem might be getting the information on who will receive the kickoff right after the coin toss. How will you get that information? Does anyone know where to get this information? TV does not usually show the coin toss? I would pay or give up betpoints if someone could tell me where to get receive kickoff info for all NFL games right after the coin toss.

The information is occasionally tweeted by the beat writers or official team twitters a minute or two prior to kickoff. The lines that I have been betting are not affected by this information so it does expose an inefficiency. It's just a question of whether or not the advantage is enough to compensate for the books edge.

[jgemma1]

BTW, it's a pain in the ass (someone should have the aggregate data), but you can find historical coin toss results game by game on NFL.com: http://www.nfl.com/liveupdate/gamece...F_Gamebook.pdf (page 9)

Thanks Evo

[statnerds]

If the line didn't move after the coin toss, of course you would... In this situation, the line has already factored in the "prowess" of each team. It has not factored in who will have the first possession.

agreed that the unknown here is both who will win the toss and what they will decide, which still only leaves us with two variables, who gets the ball. at this point i have got to believe that this inefficiency in the Market is already circumvented by the books through either taking lines off the board 5 minutes or so before KO or limits. long term it doesn't sound like a profitable avenue to pursue, but by no means am i discouraging the OP from continuing to think of ways to gain any Edge possible.

[evo34]

No, you said, "betting blindly based solely on the winner of coin toss seems terribly illogical." Now you are claiming it's quite logical, but just not possible. Very different things.

[jgemma1]

It is certainly possible. Many books keep the quarter lines open until t-0.