Myself and a couple of the guys in the NBA forum have been playing around with NBA simulations this season, and we each have our own independent working models now. However, they are basic, and don't include additional factors like days of rest. After crunching the numbers for this season, I've come up with the following averages based on MOV in all games shown. My results (slightly adjusted) are below. I was wondering if anyone has done any work on NBA modelling including rest and can tell me if I'm way off base with these numbers or on the right track?
Rest Adjustments
A) B2B Game 1: -1.5pts
B) B2B Game 2: -3pts
C) 3rd Game in 4 Days: -1pt
D) 4th Game in 5 Days: -3pts
E) 4th Game in 6 Days: -2pts
F) B2B Game 2 is on the Road: -1pt
Example
[ HM GM ] [ RD GM ] [ REST ] [ RD GM ] [ HM GM ] [ REST ] [ HM GM ]
= [ A ] [ B + F ] [ / ] [ A + C ] [ B + D ] [ / ] [ E ]
= [ -1.5 ] [ -4.5 ] [ / ] [ -2.5 ] [ -6 ] [ / ] [ -2 ]