[ny92mike]

So I’ve been working on this project for a few years with mixed results, this year I started looking at things a bit different. Without divulging my formula its basically ranking each team using weekly stats to determine their grouping (Group 1 = top 4 teams; Group 8 = bottom 4 teams) from there I use a forecast formula to project the scores of future games based on the previous weeks stats. The results vary from week to week with significant drops in percentage wins in weeks 7 and 11. Still working on why it seems to be those two weeks as to why the formula is creating those dips in those weeks as the other weeks typically generate 53% or better.
Below are some color coded charts that illustrate the average Vegas spread based on the visiting team and home team grouping. When running a confidence formula to determine the low and high Vegas spread, I’ve discovered that when the actual Vegas Spread is within the low/ high values I’m getting a better win percentage against the spread.
The charts below are broken down respectfully (Average, Divisional, Conference, and Non-Conference) showing that the Vegas spread changes based on the type of game.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B-L...it?usp=sharing

The next image is of my win percentage which is calculated over a four year span 2009 to 2012 or 960 regular season games. Now the current set up is formula based selecting 45% of those games however it’s picking a high win percentage. When I include the variable above its selecting roughly 2% of the 960 games.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B-L...it?usp=sharing

My question is if having a better understanding of what the Vegas spread should be based on the match up grouping, I’m thinking that I could use that to adjust the projected scores to either add or subtract points based on the difference of the actual Vegas Spread and the projected Vegas Spread. Does this logic seem right or am I on the wrong path?

I’m hoping I made some sense out of all of this but its late and I’ve been working on this stuff tonight way too long.

If you have questions please ask.

Thanks
ny92mike

[jtoler]

Good luck, I simply look at power ratings which basically you are doing and see how much the number is off if off at all, because thats how they come up with numbers its usually not off by much, I then study both sides, gather information, injuries, other information, situation, yadda yadda yadda, but at the end of the day my bet is more or less based on feel.

[ny92mike]

jtoler thanks for the vote of encouragement.

Couple questions, first are you creating your own power rankings or pulling from nfl.com or some other site? secondly, are you getting similar results with the Vegas spread predictions? third, are you using formulas to account for injuries and such?

Thanks
ny92mike

[NavsPicks]

You'll never get an edge. End of the day it's 90% luck .

[nash13]

Depends on the method you are using. To say that it is luck is ignorance. If you have a system which predicts the lines/winners better than the bookies you are on the right side. I do this for Tennis and US Sports based on several ranking methods.

[jtoler]

No I dont create power rankings Ive thought about but honestly wouldnt know the correct way to go about it. You seem much for stat related and organized than me I dont put quite that much into it. I hardly bet Nfl might change this year.

[ny92mike]

I do believe that a percentage of any betting has a little luck involved but I don't think that its as high as 90%. More like 20% at least IMO.

Huge statistical based process, nothing within my formulas are using bias opinion which I think gives it an advantage to some extent.

Right now my hurdle is working a formula to account for injuries and at what level do they start to effect not only the Vegas line but the systems projected winner.

The information I posted with the google doc links I should note that that information is based on end of reg. season stats. I have worked out the numbers using weekly stats from the previous year as I had this data available to me and it too yielded positive results, well over the 65% range.

For me this is exciting because the in the past my formula wasn't netting me that high of a percentage and with so new changes this year I'm seeing much better results.

Has anyone messed with any formulas that would account for injuries, if so, how successful were your results?

[Meestermike]

Has anyone messed with any formulas that would account for injuries

IMO it is a factor of who is replacing the injured player. I cannot imagine a formula per say.

• Will that individual have an impact or be a detraction?
• Are they good enough to affect the play of their other teammates?
• Does the team feel comfortable and just as confident with the replacement player?
• Does the coaching staff have to make adjustments in the game plan to realize a positive impact for the team as a whole?

[ny92mike]

Agreed...Just so many variables to consider in building such a formula. I'll tinker with it a bit this season and with last years results but I think you're right that trying to build a formula would be a massive undertaking.

Thanks for your feedback, I'll definitely look at your proposed questions when attempting this project.