1. #1
    BetExplorer
    BetExplorer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-05-14
    Posts: 5
    Betpoints: 72

    Hedging a back bet with a back bet?

    In a situation where you have two outcomes and you are live betting is it possible to execute a 100% hedge i.e. set your profit/loss to 0 and if so what is the maths behind it (formula ). By two outcomes for instance I mean a tennis match where one of two players has to win provided one doesn't hurt himself or gets struck by lightning...

  2. #2
    EXhoosier10
    EXhoosier10's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-06-09
    Posts: 3,122
    Betpoints: 4390

    Using american odds
    BetAmt1/(IF(Line1<0,-Line1/(100-Line1),100/(100+Line1))/IF(Line2<0,-Line2/(100-Line2),100/(100+Line2)))

  3. #3
    BetExplorer
    BetExplorer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-05-14
    Posts: 5
    Betpoints: 72

    Quote Originally Posted by EXhoosier10 View Post
    Using american odds
    BetAmt1/(IF(Line1<0,-Line1/(100-Line1),100/(100+Line1))/IF(Line2<0,-Line2/(100-Line2),100/(100+Line2)))
    Hi I tried this using decimal odds 1.67 for line 1 and 2.02 for line 2 which I converted to US odds and plugged it in. Then I got a DIV/0

    Can this formula be reworked for decimal odds?

  4. #4
    bihon
    bihon's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-03-09
    Posts: 731

    What you're looking for is probably: odd1/(odd1+odd2)=money on odd2 and similarly odd2/(odd1+odd2)=money on odd1.
    However 100% edge is impossible because of juice.
    Last edited by bihon; 07-08-14 at 01:25 PM.

  5. #5
    BetExplorer
    BetExplorer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-05-14
    Posts: 5
    Betpoints: 72

    Quote Originally Posted by bihon View Post
    What you're looking for is probably: odd1/(odd1+odd2)=money on odd2 and similarly odd2/(odd1+odd2)=money on odd1.
    However 100% edge is impossible because of juice.
    I think your formula is working out the fraction i.e. decimal odds I would need on the other side.

    To clarify what I am looking for:

    Before the game starts I bet 1.67 on Line 1 now my player at some point during the game is starting to lose and the other player is at 1.8 . What amount do I need to bet on Line 2 (1.8) to set both bets to 0. Is there a formula for that or does it even work in theory?

  6. #6
    bihon
    bihon's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-03-09
    Posts: 731

    I am not really sure what you mean by "setting both bets to 0".
    However in de scenario you provided above you can limit your loss (or lock a profit if the other odd is favorable) using the same formula.

    So, if you already bet say $70 @1.67 and the other side is @1.8, that means

    1.67/(1.67+1.8)=0.4812 or 48.12% of the total should be bet on the other side, which means that the remaining 51.88%=$70.
    Thus 70/0.5188 * 0.4812 = $64.93 should be bet @1.8

    No matter which one wins you will have the same loss:
    a) 70*0.67 - 64.93 = -18.03
    b) 64.93*0.8 - 70 = -18.05

  7. #7
    BetExplorer
    BetExplorer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-05-14
    Posts: 5
    Betpoints: 72

    thank you!

    I think what I wanted to know is: how can you work out if at one point in a game you decide you hedge the other side so that it will result in 0 profit in both outcomes. Is that even possible or is there only a certain window of opportunity where the odds converge towards 100% where that is possible?

  8. #8
    bihon
    bihon's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-03-09
    Posts: 731

    Obviously you cannot win or offset losses if the odds go against you.
    To find the threshold or even counterodd you use
    1/(odd-1)+1

    which in your case translates to 1/0.67 +1 = 2.493

    So, odd2 should be higher than that to make a profit.

  9. #9
    smoke a bowl
    smoke a bowl's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-09-09
    Posts: 2,776
    Betpoints: 14472

    If I'm understanding this correctly it is not doable. You cant make a bet, lose 15% equity on said bet and then bet the other side and BE on both bets.

Top