[bossman71]

Hello, this was just a thought I was interested about. Last night I placed STL ML at +136 but I got it late and it was the game for today. I was thinking if I slight hedge that with a SF RL at +150. The only way I would lose money is if they SF wins by 1 run. Just curious on how or if anyone has done or thought of a system like this, or how you believe it will work in a long run. Yes I realize you will get burned from time to time but I think it will go in your favor more. Just seeing some feedback. Thanks

If I risk 1.2 units on each play I would be risking 2.4 overall and if STL ML wins I'd win 2.83 (profiting .43U), if SF RL wins is win 3(profiting .6U). I believe this is right. Also possibly if SF -1 hits +100, then that would guarantee profit if STL wins. Thanks if you have any insight

[dugdogg]

Hello, this was just a thought I was interested about. Last night I placed STL ML at +136 but I got it late and it was the game for today. I was thinking if I slight hedge that with a SF RL at +150. The only way I would lose money is if they SF wins by 1 run. Just curious on how or if anyone has done or thought of a system like this, or how you believe it will work in a long run. Yes I realize you will get burned from time to time but I think it will go in your favor more. Just seeing some feedback. Thanks

If I risk 1.2 units on each play I would be risking 2.4 overall and if STL ML wins I'd win 2.83 (profiting .43U), if SF RL wins is win 3(profiting .6U). I believe this is right. Also possibly if SF -1 hits +100, then that would guarantee profit if STL wins. Thanks if you have any insight

HORRIBLE idea/system. you never want to set yourself up for a "polish middle" . teams win by 1 a majority of MLB games

[bossman71]

Ok thanks for the insight. I'm kind of new to this all and have been slowly losing $ in MLB. Good thing I have good money management. Just look for good system of capper for MLB.

[rara51]

Hello, this was just a thought I was interested about. Last night I placed STL ML at +136 but I got it late and it was the game for today. I was thinking if I slight hedge that with a SF RL at +150. The only way I would lose money is if they SF wins by 1 run. Just curious on how or if anyone has done or thought of a system like this, or how you believe it will work in a long run. Yes I realize you will get burned from time to time but I think it will go in your favor more. Just seeing some feedback. Thanks

If I risk 1.2 units on each play I would be risking 2.4 overall and if STL ML wins I'd win 2.83 (profiting .43U), if SF RL wins is win 3(profiting .6U). I believe this is right. Also possibly if SF -1 hits +100, then that would guarantee profit if STL wins. Thanks if you have any insight

an arb by definition doesn't expose you to a loss

[bossman71]

Notice I said slight. It was just a hedge for my mistake mainly but thought id get your all thoughts. That's all.

[GREGORY]

Just fade the top 3 most wagered favorites on a given daily card and you will come out on the + side more times than not. Stay consistent.....take it week by week....some losing days will happen but stick to the program. Discipline money management and patience is a must. Took me years to figure out betting underdogs brings home the money in the long run.

[bossman71]

Where do you get the top 3 most wagered plays? What website or book do you to find that? I know they have it on scoresandodds. Just seeing what you use. Thanks

[TZM]

I believe I heard earlier this year that approximately 17%(approximately 1/6th) of all major league baseball games are decided by 1 run(probably information from a substantial sample size). I would think National League would have slightly more 1 run games than American League but I'm not sure. That alone would make this a long term losing proposition. Just my 2 cents. There is probably data around the web to search that would give you concrete info regarding this and an actual sample size, though it may take a little time to search it. Maybe someone in the forum knows of a site off hand that could easily reference such information for all of us to use as a reference tool?

[Sawyer]

This is not arbitrage. To make arbitrae, you must have at least 1 value side. This way, you can arb between a sharp book and softbook or softbook vs softbook.

Polish middles are unnecessary in my opinion. Why do that when you can make straight middle bets with no risk?

[KVB]

You have received some excellent answers here bossman.
"Hedging" when there is still a way to lose isn't very wise over the long haul. You can create situation after situation, especially with baseball, but also in all markets. It will be easy to find "good" opportunities. Each time, not only do you limit your winnings, but the game so often finds a way to end in the one way you lose...it's funny that way.
And watch out for 1 run baseball games.
It's best you refine you handicapping methods, tighten money management, and make your decisions accordingly.

[Miz]

it is possible to turn a profit this way, but you have to get the right prices.

[Poogs]

Thats a terrible bet but your thought process is on the right track actually. Also don't listen to anyone here about "fading the top 3 wagered teams" or "bet this team off a loss" etc etc. You're betting into a massively liquid and efficient market and you will lose in the long run. Until you can quantify your edge, your bet amount should be zero.

[smoke a bowl]

Some of the best bets in the world are polish middles so to say not to polish middle is silly as long as you are betting within your means. Not at all saying that the OP had a good idea but some polish middles are clearly +EV.

[HUY]

Just fade the top 3 most wagered favorites on a given daily card and you will come out on the + side more times than not. Stay consistent.....take it week by week....some losing days will happen but stick to the program. Discipline money management and patience is a must. Took me years to figure out betting underdogs brings home the money in the long run.

Too bad that you are talking out of your ass with no data to support your ludicrous claims.

[Sawyer]

Some of the best bets in the world are polish middles so to say not to polish middle is silly as long as you are betting within your means. Not at all saying that the OP had a good idea but some polish middles are clearly +EV.

I understand you, you like the thrill of massive profit provided by polish middle. There's something I like to ask. You can bet regular middle bets instead of polish. Why take the risk? Not to mention, your volume/risk will be very very low when compared to a normal arb since there's a risk of losing in polish middle. I usually stay away from polish middles.

[Sawyer]

Too bad that you are talking out of your ass with no data to support your ludicrous claims.

Can't you be more polite to other people? Your behavior is not nice. People may have different options, must be respectful to each other.

[smoke a bowl]

I understand you, you like the thrill of massive profit provided by polish middle. There's something I like to ask. You can bet regular middle bets instead of polish. Why take the risk? Not to mention, your volume/risk will be very very low when compared to a normal arb since there's a risk of losing in polish middle. I usually stay away from polish middles.

Like I said, as long as you are betting within your means and getting polished every now and again isn't going to affect the way you sleep at night, it is another good way to exploit weak lines at times. So as an NBA example: If you can lay -5.5 +110 on Team A and take +4.5 +125 on Team B and you have no clue which of the 2 lines are the bad one then I believe it is a no brainer to make both bets because the push rate isn't near 8% on the 5 (push rate is about 4%) which it would have to be for this to only be a breakeven proposition.

[Sawyer]

But you won't be able to risk much this way since there's a risk of losing involved.

Well, I would prefer to pick -4½ and +6½ for a slightly negative arb, like -%0,2 or -%0,3
Not to mention, you can bet big and make a great volume. When it hits, you HIT THE JACKPOT!

Of course, as long as you know what you're doing, with money management and controlled stakes, polish middles can give good results too as long as you're betting value. However, I prefer to pick two %3 arb with bigger stakes then a %8 polish middle. Losing is something very unpleasent for arbers since you get used to win every time. My philosoph is, why pick something with a risk of losing (even risk is slim) when you can pick something you can win %100? It's a matter of taste I guess, lol. Good luck.

[smoke a bowl]

But you won't be able to risk much this way since there's a risk of losing involved.

Well, I would prefer to pick -4½ and +6½ for a slightly negative arb, like -%0,2 or -%0,3
Not to mention, you can bet big and make a great volume. When it hits, you HIT THE JACKPOT!

Of course, as long as you know what you're doing, with money management and controlled stakes, polish middles can give good results too as long as you're betting value. However, I prefer to pick two %3 arb with bigger stakes then a %8 polish middle. Losing is something very unpleasent for arbers since you get used to win every time. My philosoph is, why pick something with a risk of losing (even risk is slim) when you can pick something you can win %100? It's a matter of taste I guess, lol. Good luck.

No doubt everybody doesn't have the stomach or bankroll for Polish middles but if you do, it is another way to exploit line errors. No doubt it is more fun to play middles than it is to play Polish middles but it's all relative.

[ace888]

I think it is not different from regular betting because you take a position for the game