[DeeRok]

For the past 4 years I've been making a living by having accounts with locals and just making bets when I can beat Pinnacle's lines. I only bet if I can beat what Pinnacle will book (Ex: if a game is +110 -120 on pinnacle, I'll only bet the favorite @ -110 or better, or the dog @ +120 or better)

Since I'm using local books, I get tons of bets every day using this system.

While I've obviously had many losing weeks, I've never gone through a losing streak like I am going through now. I have about 5 different accounts, and have lost on every single account for several weeks now. I am not doing anything differently, so I want to peg it on variance, but I haven't even had a winning day above a couple units during this entire downswing.

The majority of my bets stay good by closing. I am mostly betting MLB and World Cup right now. I feel like my local books can't be sharper than pinnacle, but am at a loss since I keep losing every day.

Should I just continue using this system, expecting it to turn back around? Any ideas on what could be going wrong?

Thanks

[PassTheDutchie]

I personally don't think pinnacle is receiving the same amount of sharp action on all the major us sports as they did in the past. I would not be surprised if 5dimes and cris/bookmaker have better lines from time to time on MLB. 5dimes has overnight 5ct lines for example, their lines have to be pretty sharp for that(even with 500 limit). So I would be careful with that.

Pinnacle soccer lines are probably better than your locals, but the worlcup results this far have been a little off. there are several articles on how the favorites and overs have been winning. This would be part of the variance you are talking about.

[killawookie]

I often use places like flashscore.com that has odd comparison and 5dimes often is highlighted for having the best odd on alot of sports.. soccer, tennis, rugby and baseball i know i've seen

[ericc]

DeeRok,
Are you playing both sides to try to win the juice? [arbitrage]

[LT Profits]

DeeRok,
Are you playing both sides to try to win the juice? [arbitrage]

Not by the way he worded it, it sounds like he is only betting the "good" side with his locals.

[Rich Boy]

Pretty much all offshore books have the same lines on major markets, if you are looking at props then you can see some differences.

Pinny is still sharper than any local bookie I can guarantee you that. Just look at the limits they have and that will tell you how confident they are on the line

Also keep in mind that beating Pinnys listed number does not guarantee an edge play, you have to calculate the no juice line and try to beat that

So if pinny posts -108/-108 the true line would be +100/+100, so you would have to calculate the no vig line first then try to get a better price.

Over time you will win, just use kelly betting, stay within your bankroll and do go on tilt, guaranteed profit.

[DeeRok]

LT Profits is correct, only betting the soft side, not arbing. Rich Boy, I am even more conservative than that. If it was -108/-108, I wouldn't bet unless I was getting at least +108.

On some of my sites my bets were consistently going bad and I gave up on trying to beat those sites, but the ones I am using now most of my bets stay good. I guess I will stick with it for now, but have been getting absolutely destroyed pretty consistently for several months now.

[Miz]

Are the lines moving at pinny between the time you log the bet at your local and the time the game starts? If you are getting better than the closing line at pinny, I think this is variance for the most part. Sawyer had a good post on this, if you dig through stuff from about a year ago here. He was arguing about how he arbs and always wins at the opposite book as pinny.

[Rich Boy]

Winning and losing streaks can last months, you might start to doubt your numbers. As long as you beat the Pinny closing number there is really no way you can lose. Have faith in the numbers and over time you will get it back. Its just not fun when you are in a major slump and cant seem to get out of it.

[DeeRok]

Are the lines moving at pinny between the time you log the bet at your local and the time the game starts? If you are getting better than the closing line at pinny, I think this is variance for the most part. Sawyer had a good post on this, if you dig through stuff from about a year ago here. He was arguing about how he arbs and always wins at the opposite book as pinny.

Yes they move, but I beat the closing lines on most of my sites. The site where my bets were going bad I stopped using.

[Miz]

My next question is, how can I get down with your locals!!

[Rich Boy]

I always wonder how locals can be so square sometimes. How hard is it to subscribe to donbest or even use SBR odds to keep track of odds?

Unless they have soo much square action that they have to juice up favorites, but I would still limit sharp players if they keep hitting my off numbers. I had to ban fishhead from my points book a few years back because he kept hitting my off numbers.

[flsaders85]

What's the limit at your locals?

[DiggityDaggityDo]

I always wonder how locals can be so square sometimes. How hard is it to subscribe to donbest or even use SBR odds to keep track of odds?

Unless they have soo much square action that they have to juice up favorites, but I would still limit sharp players if they keep hitting my off numbers. I had to ban fishhead from my points book a few years back because he kept hitting my off numbers.

Tell us more about your points book.

[TheCentaur]

Yes they move, but I beat the closing lines on most of my sites. The site where my bets were going bad I stopped using.

What do you mean your bets were going bad? You mean you would bet say +110 but the line would close at Pinny at +115 or something?

[Ryan999]

I personally don't think pinnacle is receiving the same amount of sharp action on all the major us sports as they did in the past. I would not be surprised if 5dimes and cris/bookmaker have better lines from time to time on MLB. 5dimes has overnight 5ct lines for example, their lines have to be pretty sharp for that(even with 500 limit). So I would be careful with that.

Pinnacle soccer lines are probably better than your locals, but the worlcup results this far have been a little off. there are several articles on how the favorites and overs have been winning. This would be part of the variance you are talking about.

Pinnacles limits would suggest otherwise.

[katstale]

4 years is a good run for this type play. I got ONE book to allow me to hit their reduced juice for 2 years and all that was bet there was the "other side" of Pinny. Most books will stop this after abt 6 months or severely limit your action. The one Costa book that allowed me to be there 2 years kicked me to the curb as soon as they fired their GM. I think they thought I was his hermano.

I dream of the next one!

[Rich Boy]

Yes it is tough to find books out there that will allow you to lean off Pinny numbers and profit. Books like Bet365, SIA, Bodog were quite easy to beat if you just used Pinny numbers and bet soft lines but they limit you too quickly these days. Even square books want to become sharper it seems.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Pinnacles limits would suggest otherwise.

Did they cut their limits?

[LT Profits]

Did they cut their limits?

He is saying just the opposite. That Pinnacle's LARGE limits correlate directly to their sharpness.

[Tomato]

Line moves on World Cup sides at Pinnacle went 14-30-4 (31.8%) during group stage.

[Sawyer]

Line moves on World Cup sides at Pinnacle went 14-30-4 (31.8%) during group stage.

That's right. My numbers justify you too. Value side usually lost recently. If you're betting value, math rules guarantee that you will make profit over long haul but still you may experience losing streaks. Pinnacle Lean works best in major leagues (soccer) and basket.

[puoi]

how can we know if we are betting value ? if you give me a red on rulette at 2.10@ i'm sure it's value but sport markets are distant to be perfectly efficent; books especially pinnacle move up and down to balance their bank, you can see a team priced at 1.80-1.95-2.1 which is the right price ?

i don't belive the right price is the closing one; at closer many big bettor buy back on their position and so have big influence, i think we can be sure to betting value in sports when we steadly beat the closing number for a big % like 15 wich is the "safety" margin taken from the last books in the payout scale.

For example place a bet on a team at 2.20@ that we can't find at more of 1.70@ at closing. In small % we must prepare to take big variance which means a good betting system but very stressful and far from being easy if you must do it for a living like DeeRock says.

my 2 cents.

[Sawyer]

how can we know if we are betting value ? if you give me a red on rulette at 2.10@ i'm sure it's value but sport markets are distant to be perfectly efficent; books especially pinnacle move up and down to balance their bank, you can see a team priced at 1.80-1.95-2.1 which is the right price ?

i don't belive the right price is the closing one; at closer many big bettor buy back on their position and so have big influence, i think we can be sure to betting value in sports when we steadly beat the closing number for a big % like 15 wich is the "safety" margin taken from the last books in the payout scale.

For example place a bet on a team at 2.20@ that we can't find at more of 1.70@ at closing. In small % we must prepare to take big variance which means a good betting system but very stressful and far from being easy if you must do it for a living like DeeRock says.

my 2 cents.

Brazil is 1,53 at Pinnacle. If you can find Brazil 1,67 in another book, then it's value.
But if Brazil odds increase before off, let's say it reaches 1,65. Then your bet is no longer value. So you can't know if your line is value before you see the closer. Closing line is always more efficient.

[DeeRok]

Sorry was out of town for the week, will reply to everyone now...

When I said bets were going bad, I meant exactly what you said. The line is -110/-110, I bet +110, then by the time pinnacle closes they are offering my side @ +115 for example...

If you want to bet with my guys, I can hook you up in NYC ;-)

Katstale: I frequently get banned from these books. Some I last a cpl weeks before getting banned, others several months. That's why I'm constantly finding new ones.

[smoke a bowl]

You will be fine just don't over bet your bankroll.

[perfectgam2014]

Pinnacle rocks

[satana]

For the past 4 years I've been making a living by having accounts with locals and just making bets when I can beat Pinnacle's lines. I only bet if I can beat what Pinnacle will book (Ex: if a game is +110 -120 on pinnacle, I'll only bet the favorite @ -110 or better, or the dog @ +120 or better)

Since I'm using local books, I get tons of bets every day using this system.

While I've obviously had many losing weeks, I've never gone through a losing streak like I am going through now. I have about 5 different accounts, and have lost on every single account for several weeks now. I am not doing anything differently, so I want to peg it on variance, but I haven't even had a winning day above a couple units during this entire downswing.

The majority of my bets stay good by closing. I am mostly betting MLB and World Cup right now. I feel like my local books can't be sharper than pinnacle, but am at a loss since I keep losing every day.

Should I just continue using this system, expecting it to turn back around? Any ideas on what could be going wrong?

Thanks

several weeks out of 4 years of making a living out of it? a bit too soon to complain

I often use places like flashscore.com that has odd comparison and 5dimes often is highlighted for having the best odd on alot of sports.. soccer, tennis, rugby and baseball i know i've seen

dunno about the other sports but good look on backing value lines on tennis at 5dimes....

[Poogs]

I went through the same thing with MLB last year. Was getting great numbers but got killed. It's just a losing streak and it'll come around but it does suck when you're in it.