[bustabook]

[COLOR=#000000 !important]I have been working on a system for predicting scores via computer simulations and am adding an adjustment for teams playing on back to back nights (specifically WITH travel, but i would appreciate anything).

however, i dont really know how many points the adjustment should be.. i am going to use 3 points for now (-2 points for the team that is playing b2b and +1 point for the team that is not).

by chance, has anyone here done a study on this?

also, is there any information on how the over/under is effected with teams playing on back to back nights? that would also be very helpful.

thanks to everyone in advance..[/COLOR]

[bustabook]

did some digging, came up with this site... (not sure if i'm allowed to post links but...)

http://www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~d..._submitted.pdf

enjoy, its not a bad reference.

[Johnny 55]

Arent there way more variables involved here such as travel, age of team, injuries, are they playing 3 games in 4 nights, how long is the road trip they have been on, is the team 10 deep or 7 deep, how many minutes did the star players play in the previous games, what point of the season is it, what tempo do they generally play, what tempo does their opponent play.

The Magic are interesting tonight at -3. They are playing their best basketball and are rested facing a Jazz team who has played a back to back against the Spurs and Lakers with travel involved and scored 6 points in the 4th quarter last night. I think the Jazz have played 4 in 5 nights as well and Kirilenko is injured.

[Wrecktangle]

busta,

you need to calc this stuff yourself and mesh it with other stuff as J55 sez.

[benjy]

did some digging, came up with this site... (not sure if i'm allowed to post links but...)

http://www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~d..._submitted.pdf

enjoy, its not a bad reference.

Nice reference! Thanks!

I'd love to see the effect of b2b on totals too.

We're I to hazard a guess I'd suggest that scores decrease due to slightly longer times setting up plays and reduced fg% (not having one's legs under one's shot) but may also increase scores due to a reduction in defensive intensity.

[Fishhead]

More then a few of you need to just let the game come to you.............your making things way to difficult for yourselves.

Let the game come to you.

Also, check out gamblersbookshop

[Peep]

We're I to hazard a guess I'd suggest that scores decrease due to slightly longer times setting up plays and reduced fg% (not having one's legs under one's shot) but may also increase scores due to a reduction in defensive intensity.

I would go the "lack of defensive intensity" route, bet scores are higher. I suppose I could look it up, I do have 11,000 games set up in DB by days off, but heck, would take all the fun out of it......

[Peep]

So much for my "thinking". Shows me why I don't bother doing it much lol.

Over all average total for all games 11308 of them is 193.10.

Average with one day rest is 192.56.

Average with two days rest is 193.01.

Average with three days rest is 193.89.

Average with four days rest is 192.62.

[benjy]

So much for my "thinking". Shows me why I don't bother doing it much lol.

Over all average total for all games 11308 of them is 193.10.

Average with one day rest is 192.56.

Average with two days rest is 193.01.

Average with three days rest is 193.89.

Average with four days rest is 192.62.

Sweet info Peep! Thanks!

Just to clarify "one day rest" = b2b?

If you've the inclination and the data I'd love to know if fg% (and other data) change over this same sample.

[Peep]

One days rest = back to back.

I don't have fg% or other such stats, just scores by quarters/totals/lines/derivatives of such.

[benjy]

Hmm. Peep if it isn't too much trouble I'm curious if teams on a b2b either come out slow or finish slow because they're tired (i.e. is there a noticeable change in scoring by quarter/half on a b2b).

Thanks!

[Peep]

LOL. One question always leads to another, don't it?

Was wondering a bit myself about that, so I will look it up.

For some reason I don't have 4th Q totals in my db. First quarter totals are the same though, 48.7 or b to b and all.

Looking at just 4th Q scoring for home teams (I do have that easily available) 1Q for HT only is 24.9 for all, 24.79 for HT back 2 back.
4th Q is 24.00 for all, 23.88 for B to B.

[bustabook]

Arent there way more variables involved here such as travel, age of team, injuries, are they playing 3 games in 4 nights, how long is the road trip they have been on, is the team 10 deep or 7 deep, how many minutes did the star players play in the previous games, what point of the season is it, what tempo do they generally play, what tempo does their opponent play.

johnny 55... i agree with you that all of those come into consideration. but how would i ever backtest something like that (especially the age and tempo variables) and how would i ever obtain a numerical value close to correct with any degree of confidence?

once again, i agree with you that all of those come into play but i have to be practical.. id love to take into account that stuff but i think it would be impossible to run enough backtests to get any confidence in the results. thank you very much for the input though i really do appreciate it.

btw... i am using a handicap of 2 points for teams playing on b2b days (w/travel) and right now it has no effect on the totals... which seems to be justified by peep's figures.

[pats3peat]

i read that reference. very cool to know about that stuff in an actual study. i didnt get the thing about the 75% , can someone explain that?

[Dark Horse]

It all depends on the teams. In the NBA every team has habits. You need to understand those habits, on a team by team basis, as well as how the different phases of the season affect those habits. Schedule is an important element of NBA capping; and B2B is just one of the situations within the schedule.

[CFA]

More then a few of you need to just let the game come to you.............your making things way to difficult for yourselves.

Let the game come to you.

Also, check out gamblersbookshop

I think EOG may be more your speed.
Please take a look.

[el jefe]

B2B 12/27
All on the road
Dallas +6.5 207 (@ den)
Houston +8.5 193 (@ cle)
Indiana +8 193.5 (@ mia)
San Antonio -2.5 196.5 (@ ny)

[pats3peat]

I found this -- it seems weird/inconsistent. does anyone know more about this data, if its good? http://www.nbastuffer.com/rest_days

[JohnAnthony]

Age should be also factored in IMO.

[pats3peat]

^Yeah agreed

[icsky3]

Tons of things go into if your going to get this complicated....I like fish's advice.. let it riiide and come to you.

[Busterflywheel]

Interesting analysis..

[username474]

I found this -- it seems weird/inconsistent. does anyone know more about this data, if its good? http://www.nbastuffer.com/rest_days

Most of NBAstuffers analysis is good to take an overview from but if you don't break it down team by team you will always be playing into the linemakers hands.

[pats3peat]

Most of NBAstuffers analysis is good to take an overview from but if you don't break it down team by team you will always be playing into the linemakers hands.

yeah,
do you just try to do that through lookin at their history manually, or do you got like a notes thing hehe that you already note how they do on each number of days rest

the other thing that is tough is obviously a team changes from beginnin to middle of season, so i guess try to ignore trends that happened november to middle of december?

Does anybody have a resource that shows how specific teams do in different situations this year? B2b, 3in4, 1 day rest, 2 day rest.

And then we have things distorting the facts like, "A team on a backtoback playing another team on a back to back" - thats kinda important vs, a B2B team playing a team with rest.

[Busterflywheel]

I say it plays a significant role and lines makers take it into consideration..

[dkp]

My experience is that teams will demonstrate certain rhythms in this area - based on their own depth, age, etc.

However, I think it still comes down to who you are playing in that second game and how you match up against them that matters more...