[just4phun]

Ok so I am really new to this scene. I am mostly looking at NFL lines. What I am interested in is finding out is the % of games where a change in the line from the time posted to kick-off resulted in the spread being covered or not covered etc.

Is it possible to find historical lines from the major sportsbooks? Am I being suckered into a weaker side because of a insignificant 1/2 point line movement?

Feel free to flame, but a *noob* needs to start somewhere

Oh and this all started because of http://www.amazon.ca/Smart-Money-Bet...0364281&sr=8-2

Which I think is total BS ... I doubt they had better modeling software, it was entertaining, and has piqued my interest.

[Peep]

Did you look at SBR lines?

I would think they would have that.

[LT Profits]

Still impossible to answer the question without knowing WHEN bet is placed. You have to beat the move, if you wait and bet closers that have been steamed, you will fail at 50%.

[just4phun]

Still impossible to answer the question without knowing WHEN bet is placed. You have to beat the move, if you wait and bet closers that have been steamed, you will fail at 50%.

Peep: No not yet but I will thx

LT Profits: What if we had a record of all the min and max line movements per game, and knowing the outcome of each game, what % of these line movements resulted in a spread being covered or not? Maybe my terms are not correct, here is an example.

Initial Line Posted:

NFL - Dec. 14
Arizona -3-110
San Francisco +3-110

Update Line:
NFL - Dec. 14
Arizona -2 1/2-110
San Francisco +2 1/2-110

Final Score:
Arizona 13
San Francisco 10

So if I bet the line when it was first posted its a push, but If I had waited for the updated line -2 1/2 its a win. I understand its not easy/possible to predict the movement of the line, but my question is in the long term does a 1/2 point line movement etc. really matter - or are most games a blow out on either side of the line? Is it pointless trying to calculate a sharper line? Is the important part picking the dog or fav ... ie. 50% ??

[IrishTim]

Just4phun,

Play around with the half point calculator (http://www.sportsbookreview.com/Betting+Tool...alculator.aspx) and you'll quickly see how important those 1/2 points are. You'll see that in the NFL, the "3" has a push probability of close to 10%. If you can beat the line movement any time and in any sport, you're in good shape, but it gives you an even greater edge when you can beat the market (the closing line is considered "the fair line" in high volume sports like NFL, NBA, NCAAF, NCAAB, etc. and a 50-50 coin flip) on the key numbers 3, 7, 10, etc. that have a high push probability.

As you noted, it's hard to predict line movement for most people, but one way to do it is subscribe to a line service or even use SBR odds. If you see -3.5s across the board, and then one slow-moving book has a 3 or 2.5, you should take it.

An example right now, if you look at SBRodds NCAAF tab, as of 2:00 eastern time today, you'll see that for the Georgia Tech/Iowa bowl game scheduled for January 5th, every book that I have shown (you can modify to select which books you want, Pinnacle and Matchbook are two especially good for judging which way the market might go) has George Tech -4, but BetPhoenix has it -3.5 (-105 if you're on the 10 cent lines, which they took me off of). If you have an account at BetPhoenix, you might be well-served to bet a unit on Georgia Tech -3.5.

[just4phun]

Ok I will check out the betting tool, thx!! Yeah I think what I was missing before was the key numbers set and how the odds are affected when a 1/2 point is added or subtracted from these values.

Do most people have multiple accounts to take advantage of line discrepancies? Are most bookmakers modeling their own data to calculate a line or do they get it from a main source? It just seems the lines for NFL are too sharp to beat consistently. I am wary of a line services, it too closely resembles pump/dump stock services.

I have a lot to learn but this is all very interesting. I am 50% win/loss right now and it seems it will take a lot of effort beat 50% + vig ~54% ish

[just4phun]

removed