[statnerds]

i was thinking about this one last night. placed 3 wagers on MNF during the game, the infamous live-betting. all bets were Ov bets. took positions at 35.5, 34.5 and finally 30.5. the first two were lines were mid to late first quarter. the final position during the second quarter before Pack scored 1st TD.

i've played these in the past losing on Ov 55.5 in NE/NO, but also winning on Un 70.5. a FG miss away from cashing both.

i am starting to see value in playing the Over in games that feature low-scoring 1st quarters. we know that traditionally the higher scoring quarters are 2nd and 4th. i assumed last night that with the total at 43, the 1st quarter total was likely between 7 and 10. so why knock 8.5 pts off the game total when the 1st quarter produced 3 pts but 162 yards gained (between offense production and penalties)? and both teams entering the redzone on their first drives?

anyway, can anyone assist in building a formula to target these prime-time games that feature live betting. or at least suggest all the elements to consider:

each team pts for and against by quarter
the total for the game
the 1st H and 1st Q lines
teams sea YPPT
accumulated stats to the point of considering the play

just seems like a lot of value to be had in playing these live bets. the book has about 1 minute to produce a line leaving it's customers 45 seconds to a minute to bet it.

any positive input welcomed

[ji03]

good point, the lines swing so much after each score by either team, so I would think that a good model could produce winners.

[Justin7]

i was thinking about this one last night. placed 3 wagers on MNF during the game, the infamous live-betting. all bets were Ov bets. took positions at 35.5, 34.5 and finally 30.5. the first two were lines were mid to late first quarter. the final position during the second quarter before Pack scored 1st TD.

i've played these in the past losing on Ov 55.5 in NE/NO, but also winning on Un 70.5. a FG miss away from cashing both.

i am starting to see value in playing the Over in games that feature low-scoring 1st quarters. we know that traditionally the higher scoring quarters are 2nd and 4th. i assumed last night that with the total at 43, the 1st quarter total was likely between 7 and 10. so why knock 8.5 pts off the game total when the 1st quarter produced 3 pts but 162 yards gained (between offense production and penalties)? and both teams entering the redzone on their first drives?

anyway, can anyone assist in building a formula to target these prime-time games that feature live betting. or at least suggest all the elements to consider:

each team pts for and against by quarter
the total for the game
the 1st H and 1st Q lines
teams sea YPPT
accumulated stats to the point of considering the play

just seems like a lot of value to be had in playing these live bets. the book has about 1 minute to produce a line leaving it's customers 45 seconds to a minute to bet it.

any positive input welcomed

Totals:
I would ignore "how" the teams played in the first quarter except for the actual points scored. If 0 points were scored in q1, the mean was 11, and the game total is 43, then 32 is probably the right number.

You need to adjust this by field position. If a team has the ball between its own 30-40, I would not use an adjustment. For every 10 yards closer to scoring, add a point. If it is inside its 10, add a points. If inside its 4, add 2 points.

[IrishTim]

Pretty nifty, thanks Justin.

[Arilou]

Halftime total adjustments provide a good sketch of how much you should care about things like yards gained.

[statnerds]

thanks people. i was thinking about this even more, i like numbers, and really think the value is going to be on sizable dogs. that assumes favorites are likely to score first so if an event happens that was expected, why would the line be adjusted upward? when Browns kicked first FG line was adjusted by a FG to +7.5. so if it was the other way around with Pitt scoring a FG would it be 13.5?

hopefully i will remember to check props on team to score first. anyone got stats on teams first poss of game? that would also help. for instance, in MNF Ari and SF. how often do those 2 score or get scored upon in the 1st poss? again, if it is under 50%, it is expected that neither will score but the total will still be adjusted down. how can likely events occur but have the opposite impact?

here is something else i tried and went 2-1. i took over both TT on Thursday as BM had Cle 10.5 and Pit 21 but then I took under the game total at 34.5. never seen anything like that before.