Originally Posted by
Dr.Gonzo
Bet according to your ratings, to win a fixed percentage of your bankroll. You will need to determine how aggressive or conservative you wish to wager, obviously the higher the percentage the more aggressive. I will assume you will only bet betting probably overlays.
Example: You mark a horse at 5-1 and it is showing 8-1, you back it as if it were a 5-1 shot to win 2% of your bankroll. If it were to start 5/1 you would expect to break even in the long run, but anything over 5-1 is +EV.
You can tweak it a little and create categories. Small expected overlay (1%), medium expected overlay (2%), large expected overlay (3%). If you go down this road keep separate results for all categories, you might find that whilst you are able to identify an edge your large expected overlays only have the same edge as your small expected overlays, alternatively your small expected overlays may be losing propositions but your medium expected overlays are profitable and large expected overlays even more so. Thus you can adjust based on your results.