[crinkledaces]

I was l wondering if it would be profitable to bet the run line of the favorite and the alternate run line with the dog with the expectations that in the last 20000 games the final scores of the games were 1 run games 28.7 percent of the time. And you have to lay roughly 3-1 to bet this wager using a arbitrage calculator. I mean am i missing something or is this a plus ev situation. Thanks in advance for the input

[crinkledaces]

A example KC -1.5 @+135
Houston -1.5 @+210

using the arbitrage calculator i bet 60 on kc and 45.48 on Houston to for a guaranteed profit of 35.52 if the game doesnt end in a 1 run game. so my total wager is 105.48 @ 33.66 percent of my total wager so if games end in 1 run games 28.7 percent of the time is this a positive outcome?? I know it seems simple just wanna make sure im not doing something wrong or missing something

[crinkledaces]

Any input would be much appreciated

[crinkledaces]

Not sure why ive had 46 views on this subject and not 1 single response... But the guy with the question do you bet with odds alone has 17... I mean what he is asking is fairly trivial and while this isn't rocket science I cant get a single person to give me any insight on this question.

[kevraid]

Yes I am interested in an answer to this. I tried to post your question elsewhere. I even tried to google and see if people have done this and see if there was success or not. Would you take ever single game. So most days a $2 bettor would invest $64 many days . I think your question might be a hard one so maybe these "gurus" are trying to figure it all out to see how profitable it would be. So i will pop up this thread also to see if there are some answers. Good Question

[crinkledaces]

No what i have been doing is cherry picking the teams that have played the least amount of 1 run games. For instance NYY Clev
Sea ARI. By looking at their schedule and making sure that for instance if a team has played 15 game that out of those game no more than 4 have been 1 run games

[Kaabee]

a win gets you 35.52. a loss gets you -105.48.

28.7% chance to lose, 71.3% chance to win.

over 1000 bets you lose 287 and win 713.

287*-105.48 = -30272.76

713*35.52 = 25325.76

-4947 over 1000 bets.

[crinkledaces]

a win gets you 35.52. a loss gets you -105.48.

28.7% chance to lose, 71.3% chance to win.

over 1000 bets you lose 287 and win 713.

287*-105.48 = -30272.76

713*35.52 = 25325.76

-4947 over 1000 bets.

what would the break even juice overlay need to be

[crinkledaces]

Btw thank u for taking the time when so many others wouldn't

[kevraid]

By those calculations 75% still loses

[gui_m_p]

what would the break even juice overlay need to be

1*x*0,713 - 1*0,287 = 0
0,713x = 0,287
x = 0,287/0,713
x = 0,403

Odds to break even in long term: 1,403 (decimal)

So, with your system, if you are betting $100 you would have to win $40,30 on average to break even. The problem is that games with those odds will be between teams more equal, so chances to a team wins by just a run are higher, whiches "brokes" the system...

[mitch51]

I was l wondering if it would be profitable to bet the run line of the favorite and the alternate run line with the dog with the expectations that in the last 20000 games the final scores of the games were 1 run games 28.7 percent of the time. And you have to lay roughly 3-1 to bet this wager using a arbitrage calculator. I mean am i missing something or is this a plus ev situation. Thanks in advance for the input

We did this just using the Yankees and the Rangers specifically and it worked out pretty well. With these two teams they seem to win or lose by more than one run historically.

[Miz]

We did this just using the Yankees and the Rangers specifically and it worked out pretty well. With these two teams they seem to win or lose by more than one run historically.

the game total influences the run line prices