1. 11-30-09 12:44 AM #1
    IrishTim
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    NFL OT question for database guys

    How many games, or what percent, of games that go into overtime end in a tie? Saw today that I could risk $500 to win $14 that the Sunday night game would not end in a tie.

    Not that I was thinking of taking it, but just curious if there was an edge.
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  2. 11-30-09 01:09 AM #2
    RickySteve
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    8 of 311 (2.57%) since 1985.
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  3. 11-30-09 02:24 AM #3
    Justin7
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    Nice work, Ricky.

    Here's another interesting one. If the home team wins by exactly 3 points, what % of the time is it in overtime?

    And if you like live betting...
    what % of the time does the team that wins the coin toss win the game?
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  4. 11-30-09 03:26 AM #4
    20Four7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    Nice work, Ricky.

    Here's another interesting one. If the home team wins by exactly 3 points, what % of the time is it in overtime?

    And if you like live betting...
    what % of the time does the team that wins the coin toss win the game?


    I believe it's approximately 60% ....
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  5. 11-30-09 03:30 AM #5
    20Four7
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    I also think it's about 30% of the time the kick off team never touches the ball as well. This is all going from memory as it's too late to look this stuff up.
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  6. 11-30-09 03:41 AM #6
    jackpot269
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    Sounds about right!
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  7. 11-30-09 08:23 AM #7
    Wrecktangle
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    Quote Originally Posted by RickySteve View Post
    8 of 311 (2.57%) since 1985.
    Major NFL scoring change in 1994, not sure this stat is valid by including data before that.
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  8. 11-30-09 08:41 AM #8
    20Four7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wrecktangle View Post
    Major NFL scoring change in 1994, not sure this stat is valid by including data before that.
    Are you talking about the kick being moved to the 30 yard line?
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  9. 11-30-09 01:50 PM #9
    IrishTim
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    Quote Originally Posted by 20Four7 View Post
    I believe it's approximately 60% ....
    Quote Originally Posted by 20Four7 View Post
    I also think it's about 30% of the time the kick off team never touches the ball as well. This is all going from memory as it's too late to look this stuff up.
    Thanks guys. Do we know if these are the correct answers?
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  10. 11-30-09 03:21 PM #10
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wrecktangle View Post
    Major NFL scoring change in 1994, not sure this stat is valid by including data before that.
    How does 2-point conversion have any relevance once a game has already gone to overtime?

    The conversion probably increased the amount of overtime games, but the percentage of games ending in ties was unaffected.
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  11. 11-30-09 05:29 PM #11
    RickySteve
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    Here's another interesting one. If the home team wins by exactly 3 points, what % of the time is it in overtime?
    117 of 455 (25.71%). Surprisingly high, this would make a good prop.

    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    And if you like live betting...
    what % of the time does the team that wins the coin toss win the game?
    I don't have the data but a respected source says 60% from 2000-2007.
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  12. 11-30-09 05:43 PM #12
    20Four7
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    According to Advanced NFL Stats the numbers I posted were basically correct. Here's the link: http://www.advancednflstats.com/2008...lip-in-ot.html
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  13. 11-30-09 09:08 PM #13
    Flying Dutchman
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    How does 2-point conversion have any relevance once a game has already gone to overtime?

    The conversion probably increased the amount of overtime games, but the percentage of games ending in ties was unaffected.
    Does not the increased chance for a tie at the end of regulation result in an increased chance for a tie at the end of OT? I don't have the figures, but it seems so.
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  14. 11-30-09 11:24 PM #14
    RickySteve
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    Quote Originally Posted by Flying Dutchman View Post
    Does not the increased chance for a tie at the end of regulation result in an increased chance for a tie at the end of OT? I don't have the figures, but it seems so.
    NFL OT is sudden death.
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  15. 11-30-09 11:30 PM #15
    IrishTim
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    Quote Originally Posted by RickySteve View Post
    NFL OT is sudden death.
    I think what he was saying re: 2 point conversions makes sense. You obviously can't have a tie without overtime. Obviously in order to have overtime, you must have a tie score. The 2 point conversion, in my estimation, makes it easier to tie the game. For instance, in the pre-1994 world an 8 point game was a 2-score game with really no chance for overtime. But w/ the 2 point conversion, now those 8 point games (in addition to 3 and 7 point ones) have a chance of going into OT.
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  16. 12-01-09 06:18 AM #16
    LT Profits
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    Right, but reread the original question. It is asking what percentage of games THAT GO INTO OVERTIME end in a tie. The two-point conversion increased the AMOUNT of OT games, but that does not change the percentage of those games that end in a tie.
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  17. 12-01-09 11:58 AM #17
    IrishTim
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Right, but reread the original question. It is asking what percentage of games THAT GO INTO OVERTIME end in a tie. The two-point conversion increased the AMOUNT of OT games, but that does not change the percentage of those games that end in a tie.
    Ahhh correct. It was my own question

    Indeed the two point conversions might affect how many games go into overtime, but not what percent of games end in a tie once in overtime.
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  18. 12-01-09 12:08 PM #18
    LT Profits
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    I assume that "will not end in tie" prop was during live betting at the end of regulation?
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  19. 12-01-09 12:12 PM #19
    IrishTim
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    Yes, I didn't bet it because I would've had to risk my entire account to make anything, but it got me thinking.
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  20. 12-01-09 08:16 PM #20
    Wrecktangle
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    ummm, I misread the Q also. Sounds like LT & Ricky have the numbers.
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