[kaalhode]

Hei, JJ. Very intresting. Just have a question. Do you have an easy way to explain how to run simulations in Excel? I am not a hardcore excel user, so any info on how you did it or where to find info would help alot. thx

Well, I created something like that, took about 2 years working by myself using only excel. I did this for MLB,NFL, NHL, NBA I took the data from ESPN imported into excel using data import, forgot exactly step by step. But once I got it in I added a lot of formulas, algorithms, to make it easy than typing each teams stats. Then used those teams stats that were selected to simulate 1,000 games, then from each of those games I got the average total & point differential. Of course I tweaked the simulation formulas to get more accurate results producing Totals and Spreads that were as close as possible to Vegas's lines. After I added a lot of Dynamic stuff, like typing in a spread to either team and project if they should cover that number, the same with the total. Of course I've been using this to help guide me to spot games numbers that were out of whack and bet those games. I never kept track over the years my winning percentage or record, until recently here on SBR. But I can say I have won more than I lost bet number wise, but got really confident on certain games and bet more than usual and lost a few of those so... Anyways here are screen shots of todays NBA games.

[newguy]

Hei, JJ. Very intresting. Just have a question. Do you have an easy way to explain how to run simulations in Excel? I am not a hardcore excel user, so any info on how you did it or where to find info would help alot. thx

When I was in undergrad we used a stat modeling program - don't recall name anymore - but you essentially put in parameters and it modeled out the results. Remember using it to model out the "best" time for hockey teams to pull the goalie when they were losing.

Anyway - models are out there and not all that expensive from what I remember, but I had a "time-bomb" version of it that stopped working 4 months after I got it (was for one class only) so not sure how much real version would be

[newguy]

For those thinking of baseball - I used to have a model years ago to predict baseball scores. Wasn't super sophisticated - you had to plug in the starting pitcher's stats for each team, then a handful of offensive stats for each team, then the top 5 relievers by innings pitched for each team and it effectively told you roughly how many runs each team would score. It worked, we were up money on it, but was a lot of work to get all those stats updated on a daily basis, especially on days there would be no plays from the model. I would be interested in working with others who know how to easily get data to program that model. These day's I really only bet football because its the sport I think I understand best and don't have time to get all the data as consistently as I needed it, but have thought about it in the past that I should rebuild that model. I had built it probably 10 years ago - I am guessing there is better data sources available now

[sbrhedge]

My system won the NFL $1000 bankroll contest at Wagertracker the last two years in a row and my system works best in MLB. I have been looking for help improving it for the last five years. Once I show them how it works they move to vegas and never return my messages. I have found through experience that discovering something new is a bad thing.

Good things come with discovering something new.

Bad things come with poor judgment of people and not ensuring enough intellectual property protection.

Even if you have people sign an NDA, hassles abound when you file a lawsuit and chase after them.

By then, too many people use your system and move the lines against you.

You can find ways to get help without disclosing system details.

[zacher]

The big problem we've been having is finding an algorithm that will produce consistent numbers we are looking for, every sport of course has a little bit different pattern of numbers.

[JJones07]

Hei, JJ. Very intresting. Just have a question. Do you have an easy way to explain how to run simulations in Excel? I am not a hardcore excel user, so any info on how you did it or where to find info would help alot. thx

I just copy and paste the formula that I created over and over in cells, and keep track of the results. The first cell for keeping track of our simulation I would type in the first formula.

As far as the basics of how mine works, or what I used to calculate the lines and totals NBA example:
TEAM A (Home) VS TEAM B

For TEAM A average points: TEAM B Points allowed per game PLUS randomly (-3 to 3), PLUS TEAM A Points per game PLUS randomly (-3 to 3), + Home Court which I use (-1 to 3), DIVIDE by 2

For TEAM B average points: TEAM A points allowed per game PLUS randomly (-3 to 3), PLUS TEAM B points per game PLUS randomly (-3 to 3), PLUS randomly (-3 to 3), DIVIDE by 2

Each of those formulas put in a different cell, personally I put the home team on the bottom to coordinate with Home vs Away format on a typical website. The same exact formula you put on top, the away team, put it in the cell on the right, (the next one). Then repeat putting the same exact formula in the next cell, and the next cell for example 10 times. Then on the bottom cell, you are going to put the home team formula, under each cell you did for the away team. Again, put that exact same formula in the next one, and the next one matching the same amount you did for the away team, so 10 times.

As you enter the formulas in each cell, the numbers that appear should change each time you edit the next cell or refresh the data. After you put all the formulas in each cell you can refresh the data by pressing "Command and the plus/equal button" on a mac, I believe you can press F9 on windows.

Now we will refer to each set of cells, one on top and the one on the bottom, as a game. We should have 10 all together. Now we have 10 "simulations" if you will. From here I get the average of every away team divided by 10, our current sample size, subtracted by the average of every home team. That result is what I use for what I think the line should be. You might not be able to get a good idea of how the game will end up, because of a small sample size of 10. You can add more "games" to increase your sample size. I personally found that 1000 to be pretty consistent. And by consistent I mean, the average differential of each game every time refreshed doesn't change dramatically.

I hope I explained that clear enough.

[zacher]

thanks Jonesy…the information here now is what I was looking for in the beginning.

[JJones07]

What do you do about injuries? Nuggets with no Lawson tried to use Foye and Fournier for pg duties this changes the whole game.

I can't think of any way to incorporate injuries, only a fantasy type thing tracking each players average stat and simulating the same type of thing with minutes, of course a lot more work but could definitely be worthwhile once completed.

Well, I been messing around with excel again and the process is a lot faster than I thought. Long story short I've been able to to simulate games with players minutes and... check out the difference, using the Miami/Clippers game the other night.

System 1 The original team stat based and
System 2 Player minute stat based.

Obviously the game was played already so I went ahead and used the box score from that night to put in for their minutes. Inserted a simple stat/minute algorithm for each stat plus randomly -5 to 5 for points, -3 to 3 for rebounds as well as assists to simulate each individual stat based on their minuets and well, I'm happy with the results. Obviously it's not perfect, for low minuets occasionally a negative number pops up in the stat column, due to a random negative numbers being added.

Anyways for the next couple days I will be using teams previous box score minuets to use for their next game "simulation" and see if their is an advantage vs the team stat based simulation. Anyways here's screen shots of the 2 systems.

[Professor1215]

I will be PM'ing the select members who are showing interest in "combining forces".

I have some great resources to help get stared.

[Professor1215]

Also, Justin7's book, conquering risk, is worth every penny.

Linear Regression is the place to start for making a model. There is a 7-step video series on youtube that walks you through it.

I had a small breakthrough last night with modeling.

[chipleader]

Professor1215,

I am interested in joining forces and brainstorming best practices, strategies and ideas.

I've been handicapping for over 10 years in NFL, NBA, MLB, and Tennis. I finally feel like I've got a good grasp of the game in terms of feel, line movements, injuries, home/away advantages, etc. Unfortunately it is hard to quantify it into hard data. My most important tool have been consistent bankroll management and discipline.

But I feel with new analytic tools such as excel, big data and think tank like this one we may be able to find a slight edge.

I am a current MBA student and sports handicapping is a passion of mine. I also like to invest in equities markets as well and have done well the past 3 years due to market bounce back. Just took a statistic class on Linear Regression and would love to apply it in real life situations.

Let's form a syndicate group and beat the books.

Thanks,

Leon

[agendaman]

professor-i am a mathematician=MSc-play lot of daily fantasy sports very interested send me a pm

[Kababayan]

been checking them out .....I notice they have 2 sets of plays...raw and their own selections..........r they decent plays to wager on?thanks for any info

Sorry about responding back so late. I just follow the selections that he sends out. I don't handicap on my own so I don't ever use the raw numbers. Take care.

[TheMoneyShot]

Also, Justin7's book, conquering risk, is worth every penny.

Linear Regression is the place to start for making a model. There is a 7-step video series on youtube that walks you through it.

I had a small breakthrough last night with modeling.

I hear a few people talking about this. What's the name of his book and where can you read it online or pick up a copy? Thanks.

[gamblingisfun]

I hear a few people talking about this. What's the name of his book and where can you read it online or pick up a copy? Thanks.

It's called "Conquering Risk" and I was able to purchase it online on google books and read it with the google play app on my iPad.

[SportMac]

I am interested if you could share the paper work !!

[bubbabubba23]

very intersting thread

[mike_0020]

Just my input about injuries. You gave some good information and I do agree to some extent. IMHO...Do not worry about injuries since we are betting spreads and the bookies account for injuries and whether a person is resting for that game. Injuries should not be in the model. I do like this thread and I would like to contribute by 2 cents worth

[mike_0020]

Hey Professor...I agree with the Linear Regression model but there has to be things added to it after the model chooses the team(s). You would then have to narrow it down using a second type model that could include many aspects such as: Home Team and/or Away team ; a certain point spread range or ; we could have two or three different models and when we compare picks and they are the same, we all bet it. I would like your feedback on this and I do believe we can PM and then create and conquer the books. Looking forward to your input