[cotes17]

Just wondering if anyone is willing to share their knowledge of how they find their win probability for each team of each game (% each team has on winning the game). I keep trying different methods for myself but don't seem to have as good of results as I would like. Any input is helpful

[Meestermike]

One way I try and find an advantage is called 'win percentage edge'. Add both teams' home and away win % and then divide the higher win % by that total. Their overall records do not apply here.

i.e. of today's game... San Jose 14-10-3 at Tampa Bay 14-5-3

SJ RD win % = .519
TB HM win % = .636

Add both = 1.155

Divide .636/1.155 = .551 {TB's Win % edge}

Use the chart which shows win % edge percentages converted into Money Lines to begin searching for live wagers. But before you can use the table, you must go through all the steps, which I did in the example. It won’t take more than a minute or two for each game. Use your computer or a pocket calculator.

         WIN % EDGE		REQUIRED MONEY
         HOME OR ROAD 		LINE
	.524			-110
	.545			-120
	.565			-130
	.583			-140
	.600			-150
	.615			-160
	.630			-170
	.643			-180
	.655			-190
	.667			-200
	.677			-210
	.688			-220
	.697			-230
	.706			-240
	.714			-250
	.722			-260
	.730			-270
	.737			-280
	.744			-290
	.750			-300
	.756			-310
	.762			-320
	.773			-330
	.783			-360
	.792			-380
	.800			-400

The required ML is what you should be paying and not what your book or man is offering you.

Look for discrepancies between what the chart tells you the Money Line should be and what the line is that the bookmakers are quoting. Look for a difference of at least 20 cents when a game is handicapped nearly even to .583 or -140, 30 cents as it approaches .615 or -160 and 40 cents as it approaches .667 or -200. As a game that is handicapped approaches .750 or -300, the difference should be a difference of at least 40 cents but closer to 50 cents.

Another good example is today's game... NYR at OTT

NYR Rd W% = 14-10-0 or .583
OTT Hm W% = 11-10-5 or .423

Total is 1.006

.583 / 1.006 = .580

NYR W % edge is .580

NYR is a road dog in OTT today at +105. Play is on NYR because the chart says they should be close to a -140 fav.

Example #3...
NYI at PHI. PHI is a -150 fav.

NYI Rd W% = .462
PHI Hm W% = .571

Total is 1.033

.571 / 1.033 = .553

PHI should only be -120 to -125 according to this method. If you want to stick out your neck, play NYI or just pass like I am.

[cotes17]

Thanks Meestermike, that is actually very helpful information i will be using daily now. Never really looked at it that way, what i usually do is find out the probability of each team winning the game against the team they are playing. It takes quite a while the way im doing it so was seeing if anyone had a way of doing it that makes life a bit easier, maybe an excel sheet or similar. Im really liking the win percentage edge you showed me and i'll definitely start applying this to each game i do, hopefully it gives me a little more of an edge. Thanks a lot again very helpful

[Microphone]

Meestermike, interesting stuff thanks for sharing. Have you studied how to the handle the OT/SO loss? You're using it as a full loss, didn't know if you tried to filter it and try assigning a different "value" to it or if it just gets too convoluted?

[cotes17]

Meestermike, interesting stuff thanks for sharing. Have you studied how to the handle the OT/SO loss? You're using it as a full loss, didn't know if you tried to filter it and try assigning a different "value" to it or if it just gets too convoluted?

That actually sounds like it could help and get better results. Maybe counting an OT or SO loss at .5 of a loss? I'd be interested to see if that makes it more accurate

[Meestermike]

I treated SO and OT losses as that... losses; because teams' Wins include OT and SO wins and you equalize the games played numbers. You could try filtering out OT and SO wins & losses to make it like the old days where some discarded ties because neither team won or lost and others treated ties as losses.

This is the advantage with Baseball and Basketball as there is extra time in many games but you eventually get a winner and loser in the end. Hate this SO and OT crud in the NHL. Liked it the old way even after an OT if it was tied, so be it. Can't understand why the NHL had to make it like soccer.

Reasoning is good for tournament play in soccer and or hockey and I know the Europeans have been doing it this way for a long time.

[Microphone]

I treated SO and OT losses as that... losses; because teams' Wins include OT and SO wins and you equalize the games played numbers. You could try filtering out OT and SO wins & losses to make it like the old days where some discarded ties because neither team won or lost and others treated ties as losses.

This is the advantage with Baseball and Basketball as there is extra time in many games but you eventually get a winner and loser in the end. Hate this SO and OT crud in the NHL. Liked it the old way even after an OT if it was tied, so be it. Can't understand why the NHL had to make it like soccer.

Reasoning is good for tournament play in soccer and or hockey and I know the Europeans have been doing it this way for a long time.

Speaking of baseball, have you looked at this for the other moneyline sport????

[Meestermike]

Yes I have used it in baseball. It has had its up and down spells as do all sports you wager for and against. I also use it in NBA basketball. I have a chart for point spreads. I do not post plays much but have made some $$$ with this approach over time. You can use the SBR ML converter to change ML's to pointspreads.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-tool...-ml-converter/

[figue]

[Axis]

You don't bother to check injuries or starting goalies, etc?

So many factors go into a single game line...seems odd you'd wager based simply on team win%'s.

I guess this could potentially be a good base to start at...and single out teams, and then look further into that game. But blindly betting on a team because their win % of the season is better is nuts to me. Especially when an Eastern C team is playing a West C team...