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Middle vs. Arb
A gentleman at the bar bet me $1000 on the patriots straight up, he's taking the Pats. I could play the pats for $700 and guarantee short money or rebet the $1k on the spread and hope for the four point middle. Lands 3 ten percent of the time and this is even better. Gut tells me bet $1k spread> ride $1k ml ev> go for the skinny arb. Any thoughts on this? Thanks.
Last edited by steady hustlin; 01-15-14 at 07:54 AM. Reason: Typo
Why trade in a +EV bet for a -EV bet? Just let it ride. Especially with the fact that its a bar bet and he may not pay you if it wins.
You're in a great situation assuming the guy pays up (otherwise, I'd follow NunyaBidness's advice).
pats ml +220
broncos ml -240
Pure hedge: $625 on pats ml guarantees $375 profit.
Ideally though, you want to stay in such a huge +ev position, but guarantee yourself something (ie, hedge out just enough so that your risk amount is appropriate given your bankroll). Would have to think about it a little longer...
Thanks for the feedback, I appreciate it.
How sure are you that you will be paid? Otherwise this could be a very -EV wager.
As to your wager, is $1000 a normal wager for you based on your bankroll? If so, then you could let it ride.
However, assuming that you are sure you will be paid, you could hedge as suggested above. Reasons to hedge could be that the wager is too large for your bankroll or if you are as conservative as I am, to minimize risk and/or guarantee a profit. In addition to the equal profit hedge suggested above, you could adjust your wager to any amount of risk that you want (such as wagering $250 on the Pats at let’s assume +200 so that you are now risking only $500 to make $750) or make your risk $0 (such as wagering $500 on the Pats at +200 so that you are risking $0 to make $500).
Joe.
you should both post up and let a trustworthy 3rd party hold the cash for you guys
cause if you are planning to pay and he's not, then he is essentially freerolling you
Don't hedge it. You're going to get middled yourself if you're not careful if this guy stiffs.
Strongly agree with this; get it arranged asap. Otherwise, I wouldn't count on that wager to be official.Originally Posted by SportsMushroom
Third party is there meeting before game to give him the dough. This base is covered. Will have enough time to get down before kick. Planning on Broncos leading half to possibly make a play on other side or in gaming it. I like the play in and of itself so nothing wrong with getting a 2 to 1 favorite at EVEN.
Alright, now we can do some fun analysis!
As I alluded earlier, it makes sense to stay in such a large +ev position, but you should probably use kelly to determine how much you should risk.
assumptions:
Pats +210
bankroll 2000
calculations:
ev of your broncos bet: (210/310) - (100/310) = .3548
kelly pct: .3548/1 = 35.48%
kelly stake: .3548 * 2000 = 709.68
As per kelly, you should have 709.68 on the broncos at those odds. Placing a $290.32 wager on +210 Pats should more or less simulate this.
Broncos win: (1000) - (290.32) = 709.68 profit
Pats win: (290.32*2.1) - (1000) = -390.32 loss
This chart may also help you get a feel for the set of possibilities in your hands.
Pats ML Stake Broncos Win PNL Pats Win PNL 50 950 -895 100 900 -790 150 850 -685 200 800 -580 250 750 -475 300 700 -370 350 650 -265 400 600 -160 450 550 -55 500 500 50 550 450 155 600 400 260 650 350 365 700 300 470 750 250 575 800 200 680 850 150 785 900 100 890 950 50 995
As for the middle, I'm not sure if it actually adds value. The Broncos ML leg is definitely +EV, but combining it with a presumably fair Pats Spread leg (to complete the middle) shouldn't increase your overall expected value?
Other SBR bros please check my math/line of thought!
You get Broncos at +100.
And Pats +208 at Pinnacle.
You have 4 options,
Riding the EV+ bet,
Picking Pats plus points and hoping for middle bet to hit,
Hedging for %21 arbitrage profit.
The Freebet
First of all, don't bet middle. I like middle bets but they rarely hit. And I wouldn't trade a golden opportunity like this for a middle. There's a %21 arbitrage. Believe me, even a Master Arbitrage Trader can find an opportunity like this very rare..
Your bet is EV+. If you let it ride, you will win over long haul but let me underline, "over long haul". If you have this opportunity only once, then hedge for %21 arbitrage profit.
Another option,
If you like Broncos' chance to win, then you can make yourself a FREEBET.
By betting Pats for 481$!
If Pats win, you will pay the guy 1000, but you win 1000$ by betting Pats. You're breakeven.
If Pats lose, you lose 481$ but you get 1000$ from the guy, you're +519$.
If you're comfortable financially and you like Broncos' chance to win, then pick Freebet. Otherwise, hedge for profit, no stress. Just make sure you don't pick the middle.
Make sure you shop around for the best line. Maybe you can find a higher price for Pats ML. GL!
Last edited by Sawyer; 01-17-14 at 07:09 PM.
Awesome feedback, thank you very much.
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