If I play a 2 game parlay that pays 2-1 for a winner and game A has a probability of 68% and game B has a probability of 65% is the chance of a win (0.65 * 0.68)/2 or 22%? Is the EV = (0.22 * wager * 2) - (wager * 0.78)?
Last edited by byronbb; 11-05-09 at 12:28 AM.
Reason: forgive my spelling too.........
Thanks man. Here in BC Canada the government run a sports lotto where you have to play at least 2 games where on Over Unders or Point spread $100 pays $200. 3 games $100 pays $400...etc. Anyways today I found some NBA totals that were totally out of wack with the previously stated win expectations but (.442 * 100) - (.558 * 100) = -$11.
I will keep an eye on them and maybe if I get 3 games with + EV the 4 x payout will make it profitable.
I actually live in BC as well. Sports Action definitely gouges you on the lines... I'd recommend just putting money into an online sportsbook instead. You'll get a lot more options and enjoyment for your money.
Yeah I play online. But they had Den at NJ U 207.5 when the Pinny close was 199.5, same with a few others: Dal at NO U 195.5 close is 189 -105.
Then I found a site that actually finds all the +ev lines for you!!!