Think tank guidelines

[Wrecktangle]

If by qualitative you mean grading picks for bankroll management, research my rants on Bayesian Priors.

Has Pats left yet?

[twister]

If by qualitative you mean grading picks for bankroll management, research my rants on Bayesian Priors. Has Pats left yet?

I think by qualitative he means reasons why certain things happen, rather than talking strictly in numbers.

For example, quantitative analysis would be that in the MLB ~55% of wins are by the home side, and ~45% by the road side. Qualitative analysis would be that home sides win more because of stadium familiarity, no travel, close to family, support of 20,000 fans etc.

[Wrecktangle]

phase of the moon, sunspots, sever cut of cheerleader uniforms....yeah, yeah.

I have some pretty hard numbers on this but I'll never post 'em.

[rkelly110]

rkelly110

Two different types of theads belong in here:
1. Anything related to mathematics and gambling
2. Anything related to quantitative handicapping

In short, if it doesn't have numbers in it (or apply to numbers), it doesn't belong here and will be moved.

It's time to grow up, boys. In all of these posts, I haven't seen anything
relating to the above.

Now, who has a system that uses SBR's live lines and bets against the
public? From what I've seen in the NBA, NFL and NHL, @ 30 to 45% of
the betting public wins quite a few games compared to 70 to 55 % of
the public.

In all of my wanderings through these posts, I haven't seen a system
that uses any of SBR's information.

[IrishTim]

It's time to grow up, boys. In all of these posts, I haven't seen anything
relating to the above.

Now, who has a system that uses SBR's live lines and bets against the
public? From what I've seen in the NBA, NFL and NHL, @ 30 to 45% of
the betting public wins quite a few games compared to 70 to 55 % of
the public.

In all of my wanderings through these posts, I haven't seen a system
that uses any of SBR's information.

Not sure any "system" using this informational is any different than coin flipping. Remember the books make money if they hit 50%. Players lose at same winning percentage.

[Wrecktangle]

It's time to grow up, boys. In all of these posts, I haven't seen anything
relating to the above.

Now, who has a system that uses SBR's live lines and bets against the
public? From what I've seen in the NBA, NFL and NHL, @ 30 to 45% of
the betting public wins quite a few games compared to 70 to 55 % of
the public.

In all of my wanderings through these posts, I haven't seen a system
that uses any of SBR's information.

Obviously, you have not been reading enough. The SBR tank is the most technical on the net I've seen in any forum. Ganchrow for one (who once posted here frequently), regularly blew me and many others away with his math and programming skills.

[durito]

Can we get a JM and chase systems FAQ thread and ban any new ones?

[starz260]

agreed

[Peeig]

we need a faq and sticky for all the goodness that is deep in this forum

[gesiii]

large minus betting

there r no guarantees, stick to small - bets and reasonable +'s or you will always lose

[MrSink]

u are wrong
this thread is on top of handicappers talk

[coversports]

Kinda new here... So I drop here to check the guidelines.

Nice threads you got here.

[coversports]

Kinda new here... So I drop here to check the guidelines.

Nice threads you got here.

[jscar3]

logic is required at times like this.

[jessetopolski]

didnt realize

[jessetopolski]

intresting

[Harry89]

okley dokly

[bigsmitty]

NBA Betting Strategy

Hi, I'm new here but have been using a combination mathematical and "human" strategy for my past years NBA and NHL picks with some success. Please give me some feedback on it's feasibility for sports in general and other strategies for SBR. Basically I use current data to compare two team's current league rankings in certain categories, such as the example of NBA Miami vs Phi April 12. Adding the rankings for each particular team together we arrive at Miami 94 and Philly 127. These rankings include overall offense, overall defense, etc-you've all seen them I'm sure. "Better" teams will naturally have a lower total number and the comparison will give a confirmation of a reasonable spread. A difference of above twenty-five or so can be a rough indication of a four point spread.

The human factor involves injuries (such as TO losing Bosh), current streaks, historical performance comparisons and particular team's performance at home and away. Typically in the NBA we see home team's largely favored so this can be accounted for in creating a spread, although in the case of Philly their home record does not seem to give them an advantage so this will be factored. This method may seem somewhat simplistic but it has given me at least an easily factored numeric baseline comparison of teams while allowing for a more subjective human feel. Please let me know what you think of this strategy for all sports and ways it can be improved. My dream would be able to create an algorithim with weighting given for rankings, home/road performance, etc.

Good luck to all and hopefully this post is within the prescribed guidelines. Bigsmitty

[saintjames]

i agree justin & thanx for the guidlines but i have a small problem that i hope u can help...the problem here is that i wanna wager on portugal today in the world cup with sportbet but they have so many different lines on portugal (+0.5 -117 or +1 -255 or +1.5 -390 & theres many more spreads) that i dont know which spread gives me the most value (i wish soccer was on the half-point calculator) so justin (or anybody else) can you please tell me the math that is needed to obtain the spread with the highest value? i would appreciate it very much....thanx again

[yanky yank]

gl everyone

[bobhadze]

Let's talk about good music

I love music like "Queen". What about you?

[kate55]

Good call...

[Wrecktangle]

Two different types of theads belong in here:
1. Anything related to mathematics and gambling
2. Anything related to quantitative handicapping

In short, if it doesn't have numbers in it (or apply to numbers), it doesn't belong here and will be moved.

Nice in "theory," hasn't worked in practice.

One other point, the anti-system bent to the Tank is also poor practice. Because if a system works long term, there is most likely a mathematical reason underlying it. It would be nice to state it and perhaps pull it apart. What we have now amounts to censorship.

Off to other forums.

[St.Bernard1991]

Due to Justin being a * I will be leaving this site. He is clearly a losing gambler who does not want to see others make money. Just because he was unsuccessful with the martingdale he thinks all will fail at it. So I will be going to covers. Bye Jackass

[FourLengthsClear]

Due to Justin being a * I will be leaving this site. He is clearly a losing gambler who does not want to see others make money. Just because he was unsuccessful with the martingdale he thinks all will fail at it. So I will be going to covers. Bye Jackass

There is nothing stopping you from posting your plays with your system, just not in the Handicapper Think Tank.

Justin7 is not everyone's favourite poster but he has more gambling knowledge in his little finger than you will ever have.

[St.Bernard1991]

If that is the case I officially challenge Justin to a "pick off" unbiased posters can choose any games they want and post them on this thread. Justin will pick who he thinks will win/cover. As will I. This will go on for 7 days. At the end of the 7 days whoever has the higher % wins. If Justin wins I will leave never to be heard of again. If I win, my thread stays. What say you Justin? Afraid my "nonsensacle baseless conjecture system may have some handicapper ability behind it after all?

[shari91]

If that is the case I officially challenge Justin to a "pick off" unbiased posters can choose any games they want and post them on this thread. Justin will pick who he thinks will win/cover. As will I. This will go on for 7 days. At the end of the 7 days whoever has the higher % wins. If Justin wins I will leave never to be heard of again. If I win, my thread stays. What say you Justin? Afraid my "nonsensacle baseless conjecture system may have some handicapper ability behind it after all?

You can lay off the school yard nonsense. I moved your thread. I wish you all the best in your future endeavours as according to post #67, you will now be leaving, no?

[St.Bernard1991]

I decided I would leave if Justin can prove he is a better handicapper. If this is schoolyard nonsense than every single espn station should be shut down Shari, because all they do is debate winners. Are you prepared to call Skip Bayless and Steven A Smith and call them children. Didn't think so. Nice try. I also don't recall your name being Justin. Or since you are a Mod you think you can pry your way into uninvited places.I simply want to see if Justin has more gambling knowledge "in his little finger than my entire body" I certainly don't think so and the ball is in his court

[shari91]

I decided I would leave if Justin can prove he is a better handicapper. If this is schoolyard nonsense than every single espn station should be shut down Shari, because all they do is debate winners. Are you prepared to call Skip Bayless and Steven A Smith and call them children. Didn't think so. Nice try. I also don't recall your name being Justin. Or since you are a Mod you think you can pry your way into uninvited places.I simply want to see if Justin has more gambling knowledge "in his little finger than my entire body" I certainly don't think so and the ball is in his court

You came in here and hurled a homophobic slur at Justin7 because I moved your system thread out of the TT. And that was after regulars had alerted me to the fact it was in here in the first place. Don't compare yourself to Bayless or Smith. Don't even compare yourself to Elmo as you acted like a child and at least Elmo knows how to play nice. You can either follow the few policies we have here at SBR or you can choose not to and realise you're better off at Covers, considering you "threatened" to go there. If your system is so revolutionary, you will get all the attention you need in the appropriate sports subforum. Nothing to be afraid of. In fact, you really don't want the guys who only frequent the TT tearing it apart. Best of luck again.

[St.Bernard1991]

That's irrelevant Shari. the latest post was a simple challenge which is still on the table for Justin. He is not as good a handicapper as me and I am the one who has the brass to issue the challenge. Case closed. I am the better of the two of us and my system wasn't just doubling up on a team until they won. I use all of my resources to find the best play and If I was to lose I double my increments. I am still using strategy and picking as per "your think tank rules" but you are too stubborn and ignorant to see that. You jump to conclusions and have no clue what you are talking about. As I stated other people can pick the matchups and I GUARANTEE I beat Justin. Justin has nothing to lose by amusing me.

[shari91]

That's irrelevant Shari. the latest post was a simple challenge which is still on the table for Justin. He is not as good a handicapper as me and I am the one who has the brass to issue the challenge. Case closed. I am the better of the two of us and my system wasn't just doubling up on a team until they won. I use all of my resources to find the best play and If I was to lose I double my increments. I am still using strategy and picking as per "your think tank rules" but you are too stubborn and ignorant to see that. You jump to conclusions and have no clue what you are talking about. As I stated other people can pick the matchups and I GUARANTEE I beat Justin. Justin has nothing to lose by amusing me.

And all I can say to that is you are probably the 75th poster - at minimum - who has had "the brass" to issue the same challenge to Justin7 in the past year alone. You are not some lone stallion coming here trying to prove his worth... many corpses of posters past have done the same.

I couldn't care less what your system entails nor does anyone else - that's not why your thread was moved... if it works for you, great! But it won't be in the Think Tank. In actual fact, you should be happy about that. Unless you start using the forum or our PM system to try to make money from posters with your system (in that event you'll be banned), you'll get more attention and views in a sports subforum than you would in here anyway. Win win all around.

[Duff85]

Don't even compare yourself to Elmo as you acted like a child and at least Elmo knows how to play nice.

Watching too much ABC4 Shari? My daughter loves that channel. It has been a stand-off so far in the holidays between her and I on Mondays over NFL or Elmo, Raa Raa and friends. Sadly Elmo is undefeated this year, can't say the same thing for Aaron Rodgers.

[shari91]

Watching too much ABC4 Shari? My daughter loves that channel. It has been a stand-off so far in the holidays between her and I on Mondays over NFL or Elmo, Raa Raa and friends. Sadly Elmo is undefeated this year, can't say the same thing for Aaron Rodgers.

Dudeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee..... 13 trips across the city to find the Musical Elmo with the drums. Finally ended up overpaying by soooooo much on Ebay home delivery. ABC4 constantly and now that total informercial channel... 4ME? He loves that show where they say out letters and people try to make words on SBS too. Seriously the kid gets 2hrs a day of tv spread between morning and right before sleepy time but he still messes me up. I honestly give up at this point. Good thing he loves tennis because between seeing it live and the Aussie Open coverage, at least I know I'll be able to watch.

[St.Bernard1991]

Due to Justin not having the balls to accept my challenge, I am here to inform you all I am the King of Handicapping of SBR. You may all bow down now.

[FourLengthsClear]

Due to Justin not having the balls to accept my challenge, I am here to inform you all I am the King of Handicapping of SBR. You may all bow down now.

Thanks, I will sleep easier tonight knowing that.