Originally Posted by
Ominous
Is anyone taking high alternative lines in NFL?
Often you can get -14,5 @ about +350 on a team around -7 ATS. I have tried to play a few of these as they show value according to the half point calculator (and mathematically half point calculator should UNDERestimate value of this bet, as it overestimates the importance of points far away from the actual line)
My problem is that I havent done so well so far so I am beginning to question my approach. Im 1-10 or somthing so I guess it could be a bad run but Id like some input.
Lately I have been thinking that maybe you have to cap the enemy in the actual game. For instance, STL, TB and KC have all been known to suffer blowouts while decent teams such as Arizona hasnt. Do you think this sort of past performance is useful to consider when making these bets?(in addition to considering the actual ATS line of the game)
Another thing to consider is to avoid betting heavy public teams I guess... But it would seem like public has rolled this season. But if I have like 5% value to halfpoint calc does it really matter that the team I bet has 75% public consensus?
Do you think these bets have EV+ if they show value according to halfpoint calc?