1. #1
    dontknowhowtobet
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    Trying to analyze Basketball Totals based on statistics - has anyone tried it before?

    First of all I pay a lot of attention to the starting lines ... I'm picking these up from the web even after the game started.

    Now I took for example this Women Basketball game between Belarus and England.
    Currently the game is in 4th quarter, but FIBA supplies statistics of the shooting % for both teams.

    During half-time England was around the 30% ... Belarus was around the 40% - 45% which is why they're leading and winning the game.

    The opening line was 126.5 and the line during half-time was 127.5 - 128.5 depends on the bookmaker offering it.

    ---------------------------------------

    When England started the 3rd quarter there was a period of time when their stats started to go as high as 45% in the FIBA screen, the line was 133.5 - I was tempted for a moment to go with the trend, but statistically speaking England is a very poor team (and the underdog in this game) and I told myself that statistically speaking only there is no chance they will keep shooting like this .... So I picked the UNDER here, risking 100 GBP:



    3rd quarter ended with 96 points...
    To reach 134 points (I mean to lose this bet) both teams need to score 38 points which is quite unlikely ...

    I'm following up with the game here:

    http://live.fibaeurope.com/www/Game....1&gameID=30794

    Again, I'm only using statistics here, and I cannot take into account issues like free throws and such which usually happen more often in the NBA where the teams want to rig the line (don't tell me it's not true)...

    If you have any opinions please let me know what you think?


  2. #2
    dontknowhowtobet
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    5 minutes left in the game ... if you look at the Statistics, they are now becoming more of a reflection of the true stats:



    The jump to 45% is like a spike in a Graph if I was to analyze it like this...

  3. #3
    dontknowhowtobet
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    It looks like Statistics mean nothing when it comes to that ... well, I only risked 100 GBP here and glad I didn't risk more ... at least I gave here my best shot.

  4. #4
    hutennis
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    Quote Originally Posted by dontknowhowtobet View Post
    It looks like Statistics mean nothing when it comes to that ...
    Actually, statistics mean awful lot when it comes to that. The odds you use to place your bet are based on statistics and someone out there paid awful lot attention to statistics (including those you looked at) before making those odds available for wagering,

    Could it be that your naive, superficial and primitive approach to interpreting statistics is the reason for your misguided bet and not a statistic itself?

    well, I only risked 100 GBP here and glad I didn't risk more ...at least I gave here my best shot.
    Here comes the justification. The self comforting part!
    Any excuse, as long as it helps to ease the pain and make you feel better will do.
    Now, after cheering , this unfortunate episode is almost forgotten and we can comfortably get ready for
    new round of naive, superficial and primitive thinking leading to a new misguided bets.

    Those who make betting odds available for you certainly don't mind that.
    The don't even mind you winning some of those misguided bets every now and then by getting lucky.
    Nothing confuses more than undeserved winning.
    And it is not that hard to make money off confused people.
    Last edited by hutennis; 08-25-13 at 11:43 AM.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: MikeTizzy

  5. #5
    Russian Rocket
    Kleptoman
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    Quote Originally Posted by hutennis View Post

    Here comes the justification. The self comforting part!
    Any excuse, as long as it helps to ease the pain and make you feel better will do.
    Now, after cheering , this unfortunate episode is almost forgotten and we can comfortably get ready for
    new round of naive, superficial and primitive thinking leading to a new misguided bets.

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