1. 08-19-13 02:11 PM #1
    ApricotSinner32
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    Need help from math/ev wizards

    No vig line -230.85

    Gambler risks $1025 on -205 to win $500

    What is the gamblers expected value on the wager?
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  2. 08-19-13 02:31 PM #2
    NunyaBidness
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    It appears you're making the assumption that the vig free line is the true price of the event occurring. Whether or not this is accurate is a separate argument.

    Given your assumption, we convert the vig free line to a probability of 69.77%.

    So, 69.77% of the time you win $500.

    30.23% of the time you lose $1025.

    ($500 x .6977) - ($1025 x .3023) = $38.99
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  3. 08-19-13 02:36 PM #3
    ZetaPsi808
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    Pinny line in this case -256 / +221
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  4. 08-19-13 05:26 PM #4
    ZetaPsi808
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    It appears you're making the assumption that the vig free line is the true price of the event occurring. Whether or not this is accurate is a separate argument.

    Given your assumption, we convert the vig free line to a probability of 69.77%.

    So, 69.77% of the time you win $500.

    30.23% of the time you lose $1025.

    ($500 x .6977) - ($1025 x .3023) = $38.99

    thanks pal
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