1. 10-21-09 09:59 PM #1
    unstandable
    unstandable's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-21-09
    Posts: 1
    Betpoints: 0

    over/under win totals question

    I apologize if this has been answered elsewhere, but I couldn't find anything on a search.

    I was looking at some NBA regular season win total over/unders. For example, here is Chicago:

    Over 41 (-125)
    Under 41 (-105)

    Since -125 doesn't match -105, is there a way to calculate the number of wins the Bookmaker actually expects - it seems like it can't really be exactly 41.

    Thanks.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 10-26-09 03:53 AM #2
    shantystar
    shantystar's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-13-05
    Posts: 7,299
    Betpoints: 117

    its ok pally!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 10-26-09 10:17 AM #3
    Bread
    Living corpse
    Bread's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-16-08
    Posts: 23,726
    Betpoints: 37

    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 11-06-09 03:56 PM #4
    skrtelfan
    skrtelfan's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-09-08
    Posts: 1,913
    Betpoints: 3337

    Normalize it to remove the juice and then put it into a poisson-based season-wins estimate. The vig-free line there is approximately ov41 -109/un41 +109, which poisson tells us is about the same as 41.23 wins.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
Top
« Previous Thread | Handicapper Think Tank | Next Thread »