[Boner_18]

I realize these questions might bore y'all since there is little inside the casino that is profitable long term... but I'd love some help with the math/odds/probability here. First set of questions:

Standard Craps table, 3,4,5 odds playing pass with max 2 come bets up, full odds at all times. $5 flat base bets on a $500 bankroll.

Questions - what is the probability i double up? probability i go bust?

any insight would be great!

[HUY]

This is basic probability, if you don't understand that stuff you need to read a book. This is a good place to start: http://www.amazon.com/Probability-St...4685099&sr=1-4

[MonkeyF0cker]

It's not really just basic probability as it requires a simulation.

[hutennis]

Never mind you are willing to play negative expectation game which is unreasonable in and off itself.
It is seems like you are looking to prolong your involvement in negative expectation game.
That's unreasonable squared!
Why would you ever wanted to do that?

If you are looking to double up your $500 bankroll, I can tell you, without any simulation, your absolutely best chance to do it
is to go to Casino Royal (small casino on Vegas strip that allows you x100 odds), put 5 bucks on Don't Pass and back it up to the max with the rest of your BR. That will be as close as you can ever get to a fair coin flip in any casino game. And that is your best shot.

Anything else would be a more or less masochistic variation of bleeding yourself to death.

[kevin101]

What about Easy back/Baccarat???

Almost 50/50. Eaither Banker or Player.

[HUY]

It's not really just basic probability as it requires a simulation.

Why?

[Boner_18]

hu, its not negative expectation for me after including the expected value of my entertainment.

I realize a single shot might be the best way to double up.

[HUY]

hu, its not negative expectation for me after including the expected value of my entertainment.

I realize a single shot might be the best way to double up.

So you expect us to quantify how entertaining you find an activity?

[MonkeyF0cker]

Why?

How else would you expect to calculate risk of ruin in craps?

[Kindred]

Never mind you are willing to play negative expectation game which is unreasonable in and off itself.
It is seems like you are looking to prolong your involvement in negative expectation game.
That's unreasonable squared!
Why would you ever wanted to do that?

If you are looking to double up your $500 bankroll, I can tell you, without any simulation, your absolutely best chance to do it
is to go to Casino Royal (small casino on Vegas strip that allows you x100 odds), put 5 bucks on Don't Pass and back it up to the max with the rest of your BR. That will be as close as you can ever get to a fair coin flip in any casino game. And that is your best shot.

Anything else would be a more or less masochistic variation of bleeding yourself to death.

Many video slots and video poker have a double up feature after a win that has zero house edge.

[Kindred]

So you expect us to quantify how entertaining you find an activity?

you can quantify the value of comps/drinks if you use a player card and know the house edge and expected loss for the game you are playing. You'll be able to get a good idea of the cost per hour of entertainment.

[HUY]

How else would you expect to calculate risk of ruin in craps?

There are analytical ways.

[MonkeyF0cker]

There are analytical ways.

Such as?

[dogman]

Check out ALAN KRIGMAN who writes for casino city times. He has written 940 articles on casino games. He has written articles based on bets and bankroll.

[hutennis]

Many video slots and video poker have a double up feature after a win that has zero house edge.

You can not flip that coin unless you play -EV to begin with the same way as you can not just use vig free x100 odds on craps w/o making -EV
wager first.
So it's all about combined edge, is not it?
I doubt very much that anything in a casino can beat 0.014% you give up in a bet I suggested.