[Peeig]

I posted this on twoplustwo and it didn't get that much response......please let me know if this is the wrong forum.

A couple of questions for the forum......

1) I am currently > 25% ROI over almost 200 bets (most at -115) betting NFL player props mostly, some team stuff, but not too much as a lot of them are score derivatives and I don't feel too confident about finding edges in those. My first question is this..........if my ROI is so high, does this mean that I am probably leaving money on the table by not betting more (things that appear to be less off the actual number than what I am currently betting). Assume my ROI isn't too terribly skewed by running good (which I am sure it is to some degree)

2) Do you ever get concerned about having too many prop bets that appear to be related? Like too many over bets on New Orleans offense and then they put up 17 points (just an example). I was thinking about this the other day, and wondering if there is a way to limit risk by team or if I should even worry about it, when betting player props.

3) I only have 2 outs currently (Sportsbook and Bodog), but 5Dimes and theGreek have been suggested to me, any other books that turn out a decent amount of prop offerrings?

[ICE-BLOOD]

Peeig, that's a nice run you're on, seems like you have a good feel for players performance. This is 200 NFL player props thru the 1st 4 weeks of the season, 50 plays per week, around 3 per game (at around -115) , every game played so far?

Here's some thoughts for you before you start really banging these.

Do you also play spreads, totals and moneylines?, or just all props. Might be good to have all kinds of plays .

Have you cashed out at any of these books?

[Peeig]

Peeig, that's a nice run you're on, seems like you have a good feel for players performance. This is 200 NFL player props thru the 1st 4 weeks of the season, 50 plays per week, around 3 per game (at around -115) , every game played so far?

Here's some thoughts for you before you start really banging these.

Do you also play spreads, totals and moneylines?, or just all props. Might be good to have all kinds of plays .

Have you cashed out at any of these books?

Nope, no spreads, totals or moneylines, I don't think I have an edge, I have bet a few teasers and a few college spreads, but for the college spreads it was only because I found rogue numbers that looked like they had an edge.

I have not cashed out of any of the books yet.

[Ominous]

Nice run!
Just dont overbet, increase the stakes slowly as you get more confident and as your bankroll increase. (An easy way to do this is to bet a %age of your bankroll)

As for correlated props I dont think you should bother all to much about it. I mean, if you bet two players from same team to score a TD the bets are probably anti-correlated rather than correlated as each team in some sense get a fixed number of oppertunities to score TDs and these oppertunities are then siezed semi-randomly by the players of the team. (If one player scores then it implys that he took at least 1 team oppertunity and that implies that the other players will have fewer oppertunites to score).
However, if you base your play on the idea that team A has a strong offence and that information is wrong then it will probably affect both your score TD plays on players in team A negativly and Im not sure which effect is larger.

I guess passing yard props and recieving yard props in general would be sortof correlated for the same team O+O, U+U so here you might wanna take it a little bit slower though I am unsure of how great this effect is.

From what Ive heard 5Dimes and also to some extent thegreek are really sharp books and I would not recommend playing props there.

[MrX]

1) I am currently > 25% ROI over almost 200 bets (most at -115) betting NFL player props mostly, some team stuff, but not too much as a lot of them are score derivatives and I don't feel too confident about finding edges in those. My first question is this..........if my ROI is so high, does this mean that I am probably leaving money on the table by not betting more (things that appear to be less off the actual number than what I am currently betting). Assume my ROI isn't too terribly skewed by running good (which I am sure it is to some degree)

You sound like you have a pretty good handle on this. While 25% ROI may actually be attainable for a limited number of player props, you're probably running good and should expect that to fall. Sure, you're probably leaving money on the table. But, since player props are very difficult to back test, it's also difficult to estimate your edge going forward. Erring on the side of caution isn't a bad approach. As your sample increases, you'll have a better idea of your edge and you will be confident with more opportunities.

If the money is important right now, and you're not making enough plays to meet your goals, it probably would not be a mistake to play some of the thinner edges that you're passing up.

2) Do you ever get concerned about having too many prop bets that appear to be related? Like too many over bets on New Orleans offense and then they put up 17 points (just an example). I was thinking about this the other day, and wondering if there is a way to limit risk by team or if I should even worry about it, when betting player props.

If you're betting anywhere near full Kelly for your etimated ROI, then you should be concerned about having too many correlated bets. You seem reasonably conservative, though, so I doubt that that's the case. Just accept that simultaneous correlated bets will mean really good and really bad days. If the really bad days are too hard on you financially or emotionally, then bet less on the correlated plays.

[Peeig]

I do not use kelly at this point, because I was confused as to how to have that many bets (60 or so) at once and still use it. I need more schooling on this.......I generally bet between 0.5% and 1.5% of my bankroll..........combined with some arbs, i can usually get my whole bankroll in play each weekend.

[coloradobuff]

Peeig,

You sound like a very disciplined player.

Regarding your 2nd question and if you think you are putting too much of your prop players on one item, i think its a case by case situation. Ex: If you are betting on Drew Brees over completions and Marques Colston over receptions, i dont think is a bad thing to do, but dont go crazy in the event that an injury occurs.

On question #3 i have accounts at both sportsbook.com and thegreek and find both those outs as the best places for props, with sportsbook.com offering the most selection overall.

[durito]

You can hold 20% on props at sportsbook.com but you aren't betting enough in that case. Except to get $100 limits soon.

Be careful with too many correlated props. Adjust your pricing to the market price of the total/spread. If you have too many bets that correlate with one side or total you can play the other side.

[Ominous]

......

On question #3 i have accounts at both sportsbook.com and thegreek and find both those outs as the best places for props, with sportsbook.com offering the most selection overall.

Do you have any insight in which sportsbooks that offers the sharpest lines? 5Dimes would be a good candidate I guess?

How sharp do you think Thegreek and sportsbook.com is compared to 5D and each other?

(I would be greatful if anyone else who has knowledge in this area would respond as well )

......I generally bet between 0.5% and 1.5% of my bankroll.........

Sounds good, I woulnt worry to much. But if you bet obviously correlated props then you could lower the stakes on them to 2/3s or something I guess.

[bleedblue]

As for correlated props I dont think you should bother all to much about it. I mean, if you bet two players from same team to score a TD the bets are probably anti-correlated rather than correlated as each team in some sense get a fixed number of oppertunities to score TDs and these oppertunities are then siezed semi-randomly by the players of the team. (If one player scores then it implys that he took at least 1 team oppertunity and that implies that the other players will have fewer oppertunites to score).
However, if you base your play on the idea that team A has a strong offence and that information is wrong then it will probably affect both your score TD plays on players in team A negativly and Im not sure which effect is larger.

I would venture a guess that the first effect is greater. If a team falls behind and ends up throwing the ball 50 times, and you have the under for all of their WRs and TEs you may get burned, but this doesn't happen very often.

Also in late game situations, there will be more 3 and 4 WR sets so the ball is spread around more.

As for the information being wrong, NFL lines are pretty efficient. So if a team scores 3 more tds than expected it may appear that the information was wrong, but more likely it's just variance.

[shantystar]

You can hold 20% on props at Sportsbook.com but you aren't betting enough in that case. Except to get $100 limits soon.

Be careful with too many correlated props. Adjust your pricing to the market price of the total/spread. If you have too many bets that correlate with one side or total you can play the other side.

you are very right

[Peeig]

I am well under the limit on most bets, just trying to get a big sample of bets to ensure my methods are profitable

[skrtelfan]

sportsbook.com has some very weak prop lines but they're also thieves. SBR has them rated D-.

[Peeig]

I've settled in at about 12.5% ROI over ~350 bets............and Sportsbook.com has already sent me one withdrawal, so I am not too worried

[skrtelfan]

Lots of people have gotten one withdrawal or several withdrawals from shitty books. The problem is if they decide to retroactively cancel winning bets or something like that, which they did to lots of people when they decided to stop allowing certain +EV parlays. Some of their prop lines are good enough that it may well be worth the risk to bet there, just don't assume that you're definitely safe because they paid you once.

[Peeig]

I never said I was "safe" just that I am not too worried..............they could rob me, but I will take the risk at this point.

[bookie]

If all you bet is props and you work your way up to where you're making limit bets on them, small as that is, you will be shown the door. It may take 30 play, or 300--but it will happen.

If you know anybody else who bets it would be a good idea to put in bets for them, or have them do your props. It's not just poker where you have to balance your range.

[Faceman14]

Bookie, will they really block you from prop betting if you are winning? Have you heard of this happening before? Bodog limited my wagering level in Live Betting to $1 (down from $100), but I haven't heard of it in prop betting? That would be terrible. Anyone else heard of this happening? What about if you are winning ATS? Don't the sportbooks want the action on either side of the line? thanks, Faceman

[bookie]

Faceman...Getting barred for prop betting is the most common kind of barring there is...knock the bookies socks off on big sport sides and they'll think it's just a run...beat'em on props and it's easy for them to believe that you know more than they do. The reason is that they don't put much effort into making prop lines because it's a low volume item for them. Also, they usually don't get two way action. Only a tiny percentage of all bettors are at all interested in props, so when they make an off line they'll have to take six or eight max wagers to move it from say off line of -130 to correct price of -250 and they're not likely to get any buyback.

[skrtelfan]

Books like Bodog are afraid of their own shadow and will limit prop betting very quickly. I've had Bodog accounts where only a handful of $200 or $300 prop bets had my account put on a delay and the majority of the times I tried to bet a prop, they'd move the line on me before I could bet.