[Hustler11]

This is just the beginning and I know it's a long way from being done, mainly because part of the process is done by trial and error. But heres what I got.

I average out the teams batting avg. for the year and against this pitcher (if data is present).

I then take that avg and multiply it by 27 (the least amount of batters per game)

After getting that whatever my hits come out to be, say a team is hitting .299 collectively, that would come out to be 8 hits. I then take .299 and multiply it by 8. I repeat this until the number comes out to be less than .5 of a hit.

Then say I project this team to have say 11 runs. I will divide that number by 2.5 to get the amount of runs I'm projecting to be scored. (based off 1 run per every 2.5 hits)

I haven't come up with anything for the errors yet more than likely just gonna average out the fielding %'s and go from there.

Let me know what you guys think and lets see if we can't build this system together. Thanks!

[Nick@SI]

Be interesting to see the results. Not sure it be enough to really make money off but hopefully it's a start for you though.

Things may want to consider not just against that pitcher, but splits in terms of home/road. As I'm sure you know scoring enviroment be lower in a place like Seattle,San Diego. Left/Right while average against the pitcher might help it's also probably going to be the smaller sample size unless get some divisional rivals that have kept same staff and players. League adjustments the scoring is slightly lower in the NL due to no DH and such. Another thing could be umpire having a ump with a tight strike zone will impact scoring differently sometimes than a wide one.

Wish you nothing but the best man just keep thinking always work on moving forward even if this one doesn't work figure come up with idea's on why and how to improve it.

[snapperman2]

Why not just use the total for the game as the estimated number of runs to be scored in the game, and then derive the probable number of hits from that total?

[Jackie Moon]

I have been looking into doing something similar to this. I think you have a great start but I feel like there are some things you are over looking. Would you be interested in working on this together?

[dogman]

The Wizard of odds site has some stuff written on this, check it out. Under sports betting and click on MLB and scroll down