[1wq23re4]

If Team A scores 100 points on average against teams that allow 90 points on average, how much would you expect Team A to score against Team B who allows 110 points on average?

My mind goes to a formula like this: 100/90=1.11x110=~122 points but that seems too simple to be correct.

[Axis]

Because it is too simple.

Were there injuries? Home/Away? Tempo? Did they shoot above their average that game?

I'm not formula wiz at all...but you're correct in your assumption that is too simple.

[ManBearPig]

I used to use an access db that I put together that looked at numerous parameters, but weren't limited to scoring home/away, average pts scored by teams at home/away, league average scoring, pace, and Off/Def Ratings.

I don't remember the specifics but one of the way I used to calculate totals was by using something along the lines of (H_PF*A_PA)/League_Avg and repeat for the other team then add together. I used to generate totals a few different ways and do whatever I did, the system worked well but was a pain in the ass to maintain each day and I stopped using when I stopped betting.

[bihon]

My mind goes to a formula like this: 100/90=1.11x110=~122 points but that seems too simple to be correct.

If it's too simple, it is often true, contrary to fears. Another way to look at it: 110/90 * 100. The same result.