1. 03-23-13 05:10 PM #1
    Gradius
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    How efficient are the biggest soccer/futbol leagues compared to the NFL/NBA?

    How efficient is the market for the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Champions League, etc., compared to the NFL and NBA? I assume because those leagues generate the most money globally, that they would have the most efficient lines on the market. Does anyone have evidence of this that supports or denies this?
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  2. 03-23-13 05:16 PM #2
    easyliving
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    alot of public bias towards the top teams so no value in betting them however if you follow the mid table clubs regularly theirs definitely money to be made their.

    also never bet on the italian league. They are known for fixing games and multiple teams have gotten punished due to it in the recent years.
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  3. 03-23-13 11:40 PM #3
    Pat McCrotch
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    YOU CANNOT make money betting the Premier League, It is far too unpredictable, Any side can lose any week including the top teams,
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  4. 03-24-13 07:38 AM #4
    VLR100
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    They're all very efficient. Top tier leagues. If you want to compare check out the betfair liquidity and the limits at the bigger books.
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  5. 03-24-13 09:39 AM #5
    HeeeHAWWWW
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    You can get 3 or 4 books offering -102.5 lines. Any inefficiency there isn't going to last long.
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  6. 03-24-13 05:09 PM #6
    HUY
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    All the top soccer leagues are extremely efficient. Top teams are not overrated.
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  7. 03-25-13 10:21 AM #7
    mycon
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gradius View Post
    How efficient is the market for the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Champions League, etc., compared to the NFL and NBA? I assume because those leagues generate the most money globally, that they would have the most efficient lines on the market. Does anyone have evidence of this that supports or denies this?
    As long as the pros keep betting the big leagues (and that goes for all those you mentioned and a few more), they can't be terribly efficient. Maybe the value is a bit smaller in terms of percentages, but the limits are also substantially higher.

    Big price movements (as long as not caused by line-up changes) are another indicator that at least at some point it's not all that efficient.

    It's easier to believe in an efficient market than to admit one's inability to figure out where the inefficiency lies.
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  8. 03-25-13 11:53 AM #8
    Inkwell77
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    I am under the impression that if you look at the openers and closers and if you were to bet the lines moves at close and still win it is not all that efficient. (now this theory might be wrong, I don't know)

    The question I always have is, how many games or seasons would it take to be considered efficient or inefficient?
    Not really sure if there is an answer so people saying league X is efficient or inefficient always just seem to be guessing. One could say in the past league X has been efficient or in the past league X hasn't been efficient, but to say league X is efficient going forward is a guess, right?

    I don't follow these European soccer leagues currently so I have no idea what the past results have been.
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  9. 03-25-13 12:55 PM #9
    mycon
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    Quote Originally Posted by Inkwell77 View Post
    I am under the impression that if you look at the openers and closers and if you were to bet the lines moves at close and still win it is not all that efficient. (now this theory might be wrong, I don't know)

    The question I always have is, how many games or seasons would it take to be considered efficient or inefficient?
    Not really sure if there is an answer so people saying league X is efficient or inefficient always just seem to be guessing. One could say in the past league X has been efficient or in the past league X hasn't been efficient, but to say league X is efficient going forward is a guess, right?

    I don't follow these European soccer leagues currently so I have no idea what the past results have been.
    Essentially one can say the big leagues are efficient if you base your betting decisions on a coin toss. And the betting decisions by most people don't outperform coin tosses, that we do know.
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  10. 03-25-13 01:06 PM #10
    Inkwell77
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    Quote Originally Posted by mycon View Post
    Essentially one can say the big leagues are efficient if you base your betting decisions on a coin toss. And the betting decisions by most people don't outperform coin tosses, that we do know.
    Good post. This does make sense.
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  11. 04-01-13 10:29 AM #11
    JoeyBagels
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    I believe the big soccer leagues are the most efficient markets because they take the highest limits. The amounts of money asian books are moving is staggering. NFL follows a close second would be my guess.
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  12. 05-31-13 03:25 AM #12
    sbrhedge
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    in terms of worldwide total handle:

    #1 soccer
    #2 nfl
    #3 nba
    #4 mlb
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  13. 05-31-13 04:25 AM #13
    jumpsquat
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    They can be beaten easily... much easier than nba nhl nfl or mlb. period.
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  14. 05-31-13 01:28 PM #14
    Sawyer
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    Beating Major Football Leagues? Not, easy. Hard to find value.

    You can get the answer by looking to bookie limits. You can bet much more on Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and France Ligue 1.

    There's a posivitive correlation between sport/league popularity and difficulty level. NFL is books' biggest moneymaker followed by NBA. I don't say NBA is unbeatable, sure you can beat NBA but it's not piece of cake. NHL is more beatable then these two sports without doubt.
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  15. 06-01-13 10:55 PM #15
    sbrhedge
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    NHL is the easiest, but limits are lower.
    MLB is the most profitable, and it is worth the work.

    The old time ticket writers all say that if you have to choose one sport to make your living, MLB is it. 30 bets a day (if you count o/u), and 6 months off.

    It's because of performance ratios that makes the equity curve look better in MLB than any other sport.
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  16. 06-02-13 10:04 AM #16
    jumpsquat
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sawyer View Post
    Beating Major Football Leagues? Not, easy. Hard to find value.
    Let's just agree to disagree
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  17. 06-03-13 02:13 AM #17
    liuyelian
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    If you want to compare check out the betfair liquidity and the limits at the bigger books.





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  18. 06-07-13 07:49 AM #18
    chilidog
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    Quote Originally Posted by sbrhedge View Post
    in terms of worldwide total handle:

    #1 soccer
    #2 nfl
    #3 nba
    #4 mlb
    Soccer, horse racing, and tennis are the 3 most bet sports in the world. US sports don't even come close to touching the volume that those 3 do.
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  19. 06-07-13 05:36 PM #19
    sbrhedge
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    Quote Originally Posted by chilidog View Post
    Soccer, horse racing, and tennis are the 3 most bet sports in the world. US sports don't even come close to touching the volume that those 3 do.
    Sorry, I thought people were asking about the major sports that the public follows.

    Dog racing is actually gigantic too.
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  20. 06-18-13 04:18 PM #20
    cutchemist42
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    Quote Originally Posted by chilidog View Post
    Soccer, horse racing, and tennis are the 3 most bet sports in the world. US sports don't even come close to touching the volume that those 3 do.
    I never actually knew tennis was so highly bet. Despite loving the sport, I've never bothered to bet it.
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