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Questions on run lines , found out something strange today.
A local I am using during football mentioned he does baseball also. His lines are right on the money in all the games until I inquired about a couple of runlines in 2 games.
Cardinals -1.5 -170
Brewers +1.5 +155
Yanks -1.5 -170
Rays +1.5 +155
Never seen someone offer lines so out of wack. How would the sharps play these kind of lines ?
carefully
OK, this is something as a Newbie that has been bugging me about MLB runlines.
Why is it the favorite (-1.5 runs) is offered at Positive American odds (+115 for example), whereas the underdog (+1.5) is offered at Negative american odds? (-200 for example).
The reason this confuses me, is that on money line bets, the favorite is - and the underdog is +.
The only explanation I can think of is that baseball is such a low scoring game, often the margin of victory is 2 or fewer runs, and that makes the odds change necessary.
ALSO: I have been watching the lines on sbrodds.now for probably 2 or 3 months. I've never seen a runline other than +/- 1.5. Do they ever adjust the runline like they do on the pointspread in NFL to balance the action?
If this is in a FAQ I apologize.
Last edited by Corey; 09-10-09 at 12:02 AM. Reason: OOPS..had -1.5 for underdog not +1.5
You won't ever find an underdog (on the moneyline) -1.5 -200 on the runline.Originally Posted by Corey
Are you referring to situations where the -1.5 price on a dog (moneyline dog) is worse than the -1.5 price on the favorite?
This is due to the way runlines are priced for differently for home/road teams.
A small road dog will pay less on the -1.5 + runline that the favoured team since road team wins > 1 as a % of over all wins is higher for the road side.
OK, I'm looking at MLB money lines and comparing them to the runlines. It makes a little more sense to me now.
Most of the times on the MLB money lines, one team will be +odds, and one will be -odds, making it obvious who the favorite is. But when I compare those prices to the runline (again, are they always going to be 1.5?), I can't find any obvious pattern on how the odds change. Sometimes the ML favorite gets a better or worse price on the RL, and the same thing happens for the ML dog.
Other times, both teams will be offered at -odds on the ML, so the favorite is less clear. For example, on Sep 10 09's game FLA marlins @ new york mets here's some money lines from different books
AWAY/HOME
-118/-102 bookmaker
-113/-107 Diamond sportsbook
-103/-105 pinnacle
-103/-107 Matchbook
-115/-105 Bodog
-103/-102 5Dimes
When I see this I'm confused. Who's the favorite? If you took the absolute value of the american odds #'s on both teams on any given moneyline, wouldn't the bigger # be the favorite because that is the worse price? For example, by this logic, Bookmaker is saying FLA is the favorite since |-118| > |-102| (| stands for absolute value). Diamond agrees with bookmaker. But according to Matchbook & Pinnacle, NYM are the favorite!
I guess sometimes the teams are close enough in ability for there to be some uncertainty there.
Hopefully the more I observe the more sense this will make.
Last edited by Corey; 09-10-09 at 12:42 AM.
reread this to yourselfWhen I see this I'm confused. Who's the favorite? If you took the absolute value of the american odds #'s on both teams on any given moneyline, wouldn't the bigger # be the favorite because that is the worse price? For example, by this logic, Bookmaker is saying FLA is the favorite since |-118| > |-102| (| stands for absolute value). Diamond agrees with bookmaker. But according to Matchbook & Pinnacle, NYM are the favorite!
The reason the underdog has high juice on the RL is because they are +1.5 meaning they can lose by 1 run or win SU and still be credited for a win, which is much more likely than the favourite winning by 2 or more runs (-1.5) hence the reason the dog turns into big juice on the RL and the favourite becomes + money on the RL.
They usually price it as so, the home favourite gets around +50 cents on the RL so a -150 fav turns into +100 RL.
It really depends on the pitchers, the teams tendencies for blowouts/close games, the two teams offenses etc, the ball park, everything gets considered for the RL prices.
Hope that answers your question, otherwise I have no idea what your asking.
Remember that 25% of MLB games are decided by one run, so you almost never see + odds on the +1.5 unless the game is a total mismatch.
Also remember that ROAD teams have an even bigger advantage at +1.5 since the home team would not bat in the ninth inning if it wins by one in 8.5 innings, and even if the game is tied at that point, the only way the home team can win by more than one is on a walk-off homer with at least one guy on base.
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