How important is it for a model to beat the closing line in baseball? If I were to bet whoever I happened to like at any given time of day are my odds 50/50 to beat the closing line? And lets say I'm winning enough to be ahead, is it good enough if I'm only beating the closer half the time? Or since I'm not making moves ahead of the market half the time will it eventually catch up to me? What is a good percentage to beat closing lines at if it is important? Again, only referring to baseball money lines specifically, I read that its really important in football, but not sure about importance in baseball.