Dear members,
I run a workshop for business decisionmakers on cognitive biases and statistical decisionmaking. I'd like to ask a research question here. Just answer yes or no in the reply box:
I have a bag with 9 white marbles and 1 black marble. If you give me $100, I will let you draw one marble out of the bag. If it's white, i keep your money. If it's black, I will give you $1400.
Assuming you can afford to lose $100 but that this is real money and you value it, and that you can't do it a second time: do you take this bet?